ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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WeatherOrKnot
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5661 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:00 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
wjs3 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:we are going to hit our 2-4 inche storm total forecast this afternoon in SE Florida...flood watch has been hoisted.


Hey, is that 26th street by the Walgreens? That's no fair. It always floods there, lol!


No, commercial and federal area...there was plenty of standing water around sofla today


It has rained pretty much consistently for the past 9 hours here in Western PBC. Sometimes heavy, sometimes sprinkles. But non stop. Lots of standing water when I went to pick up the kids. Expecting heavy bands again tonight.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5662 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:00 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5663 Postby cdavis6287 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:01 pm

Hey guys, quick question. As far as right now what do you think the impacts could be in the north Flager/ saint Augustine area? I know you get a lot of these questions but some of you folks seems to be more reliable than local news.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon

#5664 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5665 Postby JKingTampa » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:03 pm

With the potential of at least 8 inches of rain and the Tropical Storm Force wind probabilities map, I'm honestly surprised for now that Tampa bay hasn't been included in a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning. Given that if the storm took a more eastern path even within their cone not officially impacting Tampa Bay we could still experience 40 mph winds or higher.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5666 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:06 pm



Wow, pretty dramatic. Very tight too. Otherwise my only other observation being how distinctly removed from the LLC it really is. It's gonna need a bit more time to put humpty dumpty back together again. Meanwhile, it really would'nt take all that much to push TD9 up to T.S. classification either
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5667 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:06 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5668 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:09 pm

If this system does gather strength and landfall near its projected area, it is in a perfect position to deliver a substantial water rise to the big bend region which is the most surge prone area in the entire basin...


I was trying to do some estimates with the SLOSH model in mind, Its a huge circulation for the relatively high surface pressure. The Bob Sikes cut on St George island will probably get widened some with this one.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5669 Postby HurriGuy » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:09 pm

Image

What the heck....south winds?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5670 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:09 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5671 Postby HurriGuy » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:10 pm

Some type of center relocation or drift southwest has to be occuring
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5672 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:11 pm

the center has dropped back SW about 25 miles. from second pass
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5673 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:13 pm

HurriGuy wrote:[im g]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0909A-CYCLONE.png[/img]

What the heck....south winds?


yeah they had to dive south to find the center. came out east side. still looks elongated NE to SW
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5674 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:13 pm

the aircraft indicate that the winds have dropped to 25 kts

Look at how bad this has decoupled
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5675 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

cdavis6287 wrote:Hey guys, quick question. As far as right now what do you think the impacts could be in the north Flager/ saint Augustine area? I know you get a lot of these questions but some of you folks seems to be more reliable than local news.


I'd say you'd get some pretty nice squalls on Thursday as the system moves toward what appears now closer to Tallahassee. Nothing necessarily dangerous but could get gusty in very fast moving squalls of rain. Biggest concern might be a few sparse power outages as a result of small branches that could fall. There'll be some rippin currents along shore with a brisk Northwesterly then northerly wind as this makes its way toward the Carolinas. On the other hand, if models continue to edge more and more to the west, who knows? Maybe this remains shallow enough for a couple days along with the trough perhaps not degrading the present ridge in place as much as expected, and we suddenly have a "New Orleans to Appalachacola" event to watch out for? Of course, if a more or less due north track occured instead, than all you have to worry about over there near St. Augustine.... is how many hot dogs you're gonna put down on the grill :wink:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5676 Postby psyclone » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

JKingTampa wrote:With the potential of at least 8 inches of rain and the Tropical Storm Force wind probabilities map, I'm honestly surprised for now that Tampa bay hasn't been included in a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning. Given that if the storm took a more eastern path even within their cone not officially impacting Tampa Bay we could still experience 40 mph winds or higher.


The probability map shows that TS winds south of the southern extent of the watch are 30% or less...for 50kt winds it's 5% or less. Based on this track the decision looks good. Rain potential has no bearing on TS/Hurricane watch issuance but you can bet that is the biggest hazard here as of now...by far and I would expect flood watches will be issued to cover that threat.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5677 Postby HurriGuy » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

Alyono wrote:the aircraft indicate that the winds have dropped to 25 kts

Look at how bad this has decoupled


It has been decoupled though for about a week now? This is the closest the MLC and LLC has been from everything I have been watching
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5678 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

I'm missing the whole set a readings the last center pass.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5679 Postby JKingTampa » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

Alyono wrote:the aircraft indicate that the winds have dropped to 25 kts

Look at how bad this has decoupled


Definitely had decoupled but I believe its about to enter it's prime time on development and tonight into tomorrow could be interesting.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5680 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:14 pm

If these two centers align, I suspect to see a corresponding increase in strength within 12-18hrs, probably to a moderate tropical storm.
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