ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

How much longer will recon be out there?

[Aric Dunn]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The entire central and eastern Gulf is exploding with thunderstorm activity. 09L now has an opportunity for significant strengthening if it can consolidate quickly...but will it?

[TropicalSailor]

The fact that this system fails to cooperate with the standard on a regular basis is starting to give me an uneasy feeling. I don't even want to track it anymore. It can go now.

[tropicwatch]

The mlc is very impressive with heavy convection about to cover it. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=1&numframes=15

[cdavis6287]

As far as track goes... What's everyone think. Wobble back east or further west? What are the bets! Or do a uturn back into the Atlantic and hit SFL east coast lol

[JKingTampa]

As far as track goes... What's everyone think. Wobble back east or further west? What are the bets!

I kinda think it will trend just a bit further east before landfall, but that goes against what I believe the NHC is thinking but with this storm its everybodys game haha.

[TropicalSailor]

As far as track goes... What's everyone think. Wobble back east or further west? What are the bets! Or do a uturn back into the Atlantic and hit SFL east coast lol

I said I would wait for he NE turn to make that call but I now wonder if it will ever come.

[Hammy]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

This is probably going to degenerate into a trough as the models a few days ago showed, and that indicates that process is beginning--there's essentially little to no convergence going on by the looks of it. I still don't think this will ever get any stronger and there's nothing out there, aside from model speculation, that gives any indication otherwise.

[wxman57]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

[Aric Dunn]

this next pass the center may be further sw very near the convection around

24.16° N 87.33° W

[SeGaBob]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

This is probably going to degenerate into a trough as the models a few days ago showed, and that indicates that process is beginning--there's essentially little to no convergence going on by the looks of it. I still don't think this will ever get any stronger and there's nothing out there, aside from model speculation, that gives any indication otherwise.

I'll bet you're wrong on this.

[tropicwatch]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

NNW not NE, that is kind of interesting.

[Siker]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

This is probably going to degenerate into a trough as the models a few days ago showed, and that indicates that process is beginning--there's essentially little to no convergence going on by the looks of it. I still don't think this will ever get any stronger and there's nothing out there, aside from model speculation, that gives any indication otherwise.

Weird times we live in when every model calling for intensification counts as "nothing". Then again, I guess it depends who you ask.

I'll bet several fake dollars this gets named .

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

if its west wind there that is a significantly farther wsw than the last recon fix..

[chaser1]

Alright, seriously.... I must've blinked. Where the hell did the LLC go now? The MLC is plainly evident of course. LLC would appear to now be directly under the new bursting convection but..... is it? Anyone have the latest recon coord's?

Around this coords: 24.233N 87.433W

Thanks for the coord's, Airboy!

[Hurricane Andrew]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

Do you think that both centers will consolidate overnight? The amount of convective activity in the Gulf right now is amazing. CAPE values of 3,000-5,000+ are present...

[waterworld]

As far as track goes... What's everyone think. Wobble back east or further west? What are the bets! Or do a uturn back into the Atlantic and hit SFL east coast lol

I said I would wait for he NE turn to make that call but I now wonder if it will ever come.

This storm is going to NW Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

As far as track goes... What's everyone think. Wobble back east or further west? What are the bets! Or do a uturn back into the Atlantic and hit SFL east coast lol

I said I would wait for he NE turn to make that call but I now wonder if it will ever come.

This storm is going to NW Florida.

I don't think we even know where it's going anymore.

[NWFL56]

Be sure to check out the storm surge inundation map. A lot of work has gone into creating an incredible project.

Yes it is totally awesome and will be a very useful tool in the future...

I just checked it out. Very cool.