ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

the wind over in the far east quad are not flowing inward. they should s to se but rather they are S to SW. very odd.

This is probably going to degenerate into a trough as the models a few days ago showed, and that indicates that process is beginning--there's essentially little to no convergence going on by the looks of it. I still don't think this will ever get any stronger and there's nothing out there, aside from model speculation, that gives any indication otherwise.

it's also not going to weaken to a trough

[Alyono]

I said I would wait for he NE turn to make that call but I now wonder if it will ever come.

This storm is going to NW Florida.

I don't think we even know where it's going anymore.

The only bit of track uncertainty now is the precise location of landfall, and how hard will the East Coast get it

[tolakram]

Weird times we live in when every model calling for intensification counts as "nothing". Then again, I guess it depends who you ask.

I'll bet several fake dollars this gets named .

Sorry to pick on you but most models are still calling for 24 hours of disorganization. My money is on whatever 57 says.

[Nimbus]

I've been watching that ULL SE of Texas. First it elongated north south and now it looks like it might be wandering SSW. Not sure if that would have any effect on the forecast steering but might reduce shear or even improve outflow if this storm ever generates enough for that to matter.

[Hammy]

Winds in the SE quad seem weaker than earlier.

[Siker]

Weird times we live in when every model calling for intensification counts as "nothing". Then again, I guess it depends who you ask.

I'll bet several fake dollars this gets named .

Sorry to pick on you but most models are still calling for 24 hours of disorganization. My money is on whatever 57 says.

Well yes, followed by intensification to a named storm .

[wxman57]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

if its west wind there that is a significantly farther wsw than the last recon fix..

Remember, it's a SHIP report from in a squall. Wind direction may not be perfect.

[wxsouth]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

Agree with this. MLC should gradually fade. No indication from recon that there is anything at the surface that far south.

Biggest changes this afternoon…
-convection is firing near diurnal min
-convection is on the northeast, south, southwest quads of the llc.

The overall circulation is very large and well defined, it's not going away. I suspect the large size is also impacting (slowing) its ability to spin up. The low-level vorticity is very spread out.

IF the current convective trends continue, I would expect to see a strengthening system by the time recon returns at 06z.

[JaxGator]

Prediction and opinion: The current blow up of convection might wrap around the center, further aiding organization.

[psyclone]

The LLC is definitely there. Just got a ship report at 23.5N / 87.8W. West wind at 20 kts. That's 68nm NNW of the MLC. It's just that building squalls near the LLC are obscuring the low clouds, making it harder to see. I think we'll have Hermine by sunrise.

Agree with this. MLC should gradually fade. No indication from recon that there is anything at the surface that far south.

Biggest changes this afternoon…
-convection is firing near diurnal min
-convection is on the northeast, south, southwest quads of the llc.

The overall circulation is very large and well defined, it's not going away. I suspect the large size is also impacting (slowing) its ability to spin up. The low-level vorticity is very spread out.

IF the current convective trends continue, I would expect to see a strengthening system by the time recon returns at 06z.

Please. Post. More:) As I write I'm getting crushed with torrential rain. Had 2" in 30 minutes earlier. This sucker is carrying a lot of juice. and the extent of heavy convection well away from the center is impressive. Cuba is still getting dogged by heavy rain.

[hurricanehunter69]

After watching the evolution of this system and extrapolating it's possible future movement on (Mimic-TPW ). I'm finding it increasingly hard to believe that TD 9 will make such a hard right turn. I would be more worried about it in the Florida Panhandle? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[AxaltaRacing24]

Keep in mind that if this does not get named overnight it is not the end of the world. The NHC does not expect this to deepen or earn a name until 12-24 more hours. What we see now is mostly expected. And no it will not open up into a trough.

[bg1]

Mainly a response to the guidance relaxing shear a bit, although that is not an extremely dramatic improvement over the previous intensity forecast I believe.

Think those coordinates are off of The Carolinas, after crossing the penninsula back into the Atlantic.

I think those coordinates are pretty close to us here in Charleston SC!

I live about 40 miles NW, actually.

When SC is in the cone, it usu. means one of three things: the storm will go farther west than expected, farther east than expected, or be a lot weaker than expected. With this storm, it may pull off all three somehow.

[Alyono]

convection needs to stop wrapping around the MLC in order for it to die. It's forming a rainband around the MLC

This is why I disagree with a Hurricane Watch. I thought a TS watch was enough for now

[HurriGuy]

still getting SSW winds at almost 87.4W

[HurriGuy]

Convection over the llc looks to be pushing over the mlc with every frame. Getting more and more interesting

[JaxGator]

Convection over the llc looks to be pushing over the mlc with every frame. Getting more and more interesting

Which would suggest consolidation?

[SouthDadeFish]

TD 9 is currently in the most favorable environment it has been in its lifetime. A large upper-tropospheric anticyclone, displaced to the south of the TC, is providing light wind shear of approximately 10 knots over the center of the TC. Satellite imagery reveals upper-level cirrus expanding in all directions except to the SW. I would hypothesize the changing of the environmental wind shear direction is slightly helping the mid-level center to approach the low-level center. Regardless, recon observations over the past few hours suggest the low-level center has been slowly drifting to the southwest, toward the mid-level center. It is likely the two centers will advect each other cyclonically around one another until persistent convection allows them to align, possibly later tonight or tomorrow. As this happens, I believe we will see a marked increase in convection organization and TC intensification will commence.

[HurriGuy]

[Hammy]

convection needs to stop wrapping around the MLC in order for it to die. It's forming a rainband around the MLC

This is why I disagree with a Hurricane Watch. I thought a TS watch was enough for now

Is this acting similarly to Gabrielle in 2013 when it was over Puerto Rico with the MLC actually pulling energy away from the LLC?