CPAC: INVEST 92C
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- cycloneye
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CPAC: INVEST 92C
CP, 92, 2016082812, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1589W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1588W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1591W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082906, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1589W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082912, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1600W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
CP, 92, 2016082818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1588W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082900, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1591W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082906, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1589W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
CP, 92, 2016082912, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1600W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
I feel that this one could definitely have a surprise in store for us...
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- Extratropical94
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Up from 20%
A weak low 470 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii continues to
produce disorganized convection. Development, if any, would be
slow to occur as this area slowly drifts west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 30 percent
produce disorganized convection. Development, if any, would be
slow to occur as this area slowly drifts west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 30 percent
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
30/2330 UTC 15.7N 163.9W T2.5/2.5 92C -- Central Pacific
Eligible for upgrade. Let's go CPHC.
Eligible for upgrade. Let's go CPHC.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
That was unexpected.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP922016 08/31/16 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 56 61 63 65 66 64
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 56 61 63 65 66 64
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 51 58 66 73 78 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 8 6 6 3 4 4 8 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -4 -2 1 3 3 0 1 0 -2 -6
SHEAR DIR 215 211 208 199 179 151 114 148 125 212 200 204 214
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 147 147 149 152 154 158 160 160 161 162
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 11
700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 51 50 49 49 50 51 55 54 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -14 -16 -17 -17 -17 -21 -6 -4 -1 0 2 -1
200 MB DIV 34 21 5 -8 8 0 1 22 -1 0 5 -10 -7
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 858 910 964 1023 1094 1304 1587 1890 2221 3952 3659 3425 3242
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.2 14.5 13.7 12.8 12.0 11.6 11.4 11.5
LONG(DEG W) 164.1 165.1 166.0 166.9 167.8 169.9 172.6 175.4 178.4 181.4 184.3 186.7 188.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 12 14 15 15 15 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 54 71 71 63 61 71 76 45 52 75 80 87 95
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 26. 31. 33. 35. 36. 34.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 164.1
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922016 INVEST 08/31/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 4.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.84 5.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.28 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -1.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 23.5% 19.4% 13.2% 0.0% 14.4% 16.6%
Logistic: 0.9% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.7% 3.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 3.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9%
Consensus: 3.4% 11.4% 8.6% 5.2% 0.1% 5.7% 7.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922016 INVEST 08/31/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Alyono wrote:they have far more important things to worry about
I'm not saying they don't but that shouldn't be a factor when determining an upgrade.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Alyono wrote:they have far more important things to worry about
Doesn't mean they should shove it to the side the same way the IMD and the JTWC do with certain systems. The NHC does not miss a thing.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:they have far more important things to worry about
I'm not saying they don't but that shouldn't be a factor when determining an upgrade.
I believe they are also short staffed there. They are not a stand alone office, but instead are a part of the WFO Honolulu office
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
Alyono wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:they have far more important things to worry about
I'm not saying they don't but that shouldn't be a factor when determining an upgrade.
I believe they are also short staffed there. They are not a stand alone office, but instead are a part of the WFO Honolulu office
Their headquarters are located in the NWS office at the University of Hawaii. They rotate 4-5 forecasters. Shouldn't be hard to for a small write up on a storm headed OTS.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
CP, 92, 201608302330, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1540N, 16410W, , 3, 30, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PHFO, KRK, VI, 6, 2020 D0524, , , GOES15, CSC, T,
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- AJC3
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
T2.5 and a POD of 30 percent. Eeek. This has been a tropical cyclone for about 2 days now. I hope it's given a proper reanalylsis, especially since it has appears to have reached TS intensity. It would be an understatement to say that the TWOs issued on this have been seriously underdone.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 92C
AJC3 wrote:T2.5 and a POD of 30 percent. Eeek. This has been a tropical cyclone for about 2 days now. I hope it's given a proper reanalylsis, especially since it has appears to have reached TS intensity. It would be an understatement to say that the TWOs issued on this have been seriously underdone.
Meteorology in Hawaii is lacking to say the least...
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