ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Agua]

I was looking at population density maps, and is it correct that the area it is targeting is one of the lower populated area of the Florida coast?

Been a long time since I've been through there but it used to be that was about as good a place for a storm to go in as any: no development and nothing but marshy forest / swamp. I suspect the odd condo development has sprung up here and there in the intervening 17 years.

[psyclone]

The enormity of the moisture envelope is staggering. There's a good deal of heavy convection south of central Cuba all the way up through the Bahamas. A monsoon style slop gyre. it's definitely looking better. I'm eagerly awaiting the 11pm advisory. Not only do I believe the NHC knows what they're doing, I think they're tops and I have an enormous level of admiration for them. Here's to hoping Stewart is busy putting together the discussion.

[Nimbus]

Out of curiosity, going back several days when #9 was still ESE of Hispanola... did any model show this track?

The official track was north and east of Puerto Rico, I didn't get much support for my land interaction with Cuba hypothesis. Its over water now but has a shallow pressure gradient so its tough for it to develop a deep low pressure well in the center. With that huge circulation the center would get sheared if it tried to move anywhere very fast. Just spinning around under that high pressure area with low shear it will eventually spin up into a hurricane, so lets hope a center does try to track northeast quickly and shear itself.

[HurriGuy]

Recon heads out in a hour and 40 minutes.

[tropicwatch]

If I am analyzing the short wave imagery correctly. The llc is just southeast of 24n 87w and the mlc is just west-southwest. Let me know if anyone see's anything different.

[latitude_20]

Thunder is now rattling houses in Chemuyil MX, torrential rain and quite the light show. Wind is at 1 mph. Looks like that southern burst of convection is spreading south.

[Rail Dawg]

I have a flight on Thursday afternoon that will take us right over the top (or nearly so) of the Tropical Storm when it makes landfall Thursday afternoon.

It's an interesting perspective because with satellite/radar views you kind of get the impression the atmosphere is super thick and the boomers dominate the sky.

In fact when you're looking at a slice of the atmosphere that is maybe 8 miles thick it's comparatively thin. The stratosphere is huge and we see occasionally the noctilucent clouds and such that are REALLY up there!

We will sometimes see a massive thunderstorm strong enough to bust through the tropopause and although it seems close it's actually almost 150-200 miles away. We fly about 8 miles a minute (500 kts) so you can see it takes time to creep up on these and to decide how to navigate around them.

Usually even with the most powerful storms there are ways to safely go near them. We like to give the biggest ones 20 miles of room. That seems like a lot but believe me it's not. I have watched massive shafts of hail being ejected out the top of the thunderstorm and falling down alongside with engine-destroying intensity.

When TD9 goes TS we'll get a chance to see it up close as it hits land. It's always fascinating and I will do my best to post another video.

Just wanted to give another perspective besides the satellites and radar/upper wind stuff. You all are amazing and even the amateurs are doing a really good job in this discussion!

Thanks and take care.

Chuck

[cdavis6287]

And as far as what I think I know, please explain.

waterworld,
I see you are new, please understand this forum does not condone forecasts stated as fact. Also it is not wise to question/argue with an admin. I love this board and cannot even begin to explain how much I have learned since 2004 and I thought I knew a good bit before I found this site. As of now there is really nothing to indicate a Pensacola landfall despite what we are seeing so far. This system is slowly organizing and it is far too early to state that it will miss the trough.
JMHO,
Tim

Anything I say is not a forecast. I'm sorry you took it that way. Second I'm simply stating my opinion. If that's not allowed here then to bad.Remove me.

All he was saying was don't state something is definitely going to happen especially with no proof. Geeze

[psyclone]

Better outflow is becoming evident north and west of those convective bursts.

[cdavis6287]

Maybe staggers and reforms northeastward as it goes? Should be about time for the hook. Even if it's not the lowest pressure center, you'd think the system will be heading up that way. Kind of a trip I still don't know what 9 is gonna do like 2 days out, but the model consensus looks good to me. A hit somewhere between PCB and Cross Ciry looks good. Maybe two hits if it brushes closer to Apalachacola. 60/70mph maybe? Not sure on a part two or three. Great system to be following.

Agreed

[NDG]

Could this be another Elena '85 that misses the weakness to her NE and gets left behind? IMO, there is a small chance.

[sponger]

LSU 2001 is a newbie compared to an old salt like me!

[wxman57]

Could this be another Elena '85 that misses the weakness to her NE and gets left behind? IMO, there is a small chance.

Euro has lots of WSW-W winds digging south across the Gulf tomorrow/Thu. Would be hard to track west of north. NE track toward Apalachicola looks quite likely.

[Recurve]

Could this be another Elena '85 that misses the weakness to her NE and gets left behind? IMO, there is a small chance.

Didn't Elena stall horribly and just dump rain on Tampa Bay area?

[LSU2001]

LSU 2001 is a newbie compared to an old salt like me!

LOL a whole 2 months makes all the difference!!
I really think this thing is about ready to start ramping up some and should start the turn soon. At least I am hoping it makes the turn as forecast.

[sponger]

In our long running analysis did anyone expect a large storm like this? The circulation looks massive!

[Recurve]

As far as the turn goes -- sometimes we forget, she's not driving. She's floating along in the atmospheric sea. It's going to carry the storm NNE to NE most likely, it sounds like.
Isn't this where the shallow or medium BAM should have skill?

[HurriGuy]

Could this be another Elena '85 that misses the weakness to her NE and gets left behind? IMO, there is a small chance.

here is that 500mb pattern for Elena

look familiar?

[Steve]

In our long running analysis did anyone expect a large storm like this? The circulation looks massive!

It was a big envelope on TPW runs all the way to Africa. So it always had that chance IMHO.

[AutoPenalti]

Is there a guarantee that almost all of Florida including SW and SE Florida are going to see effects from TD9?