ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

Take a look at this loop. Drop the last 4 or so frames. Then, drop all the frames but the last 3. The whole storm turns differently the past couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-ir2.html

[TJRE]

NRL is updating nicely

10:25 EDT



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

early sign of some CDO????

[HurriGuy]

Take a look at this loop. Drop the last 4 or so frames. Then, drop all the frames but the last 3. The whole storm turns differently the past couple hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-ir2.html

It has not turned yet. Optical illusion

[Frank P]

Well for all its trails and tribulations old 99 is as good looking right now as any depression I've seen of late... gotta be close to TS strength right now... and I can't see any turn on that IR, but a continuing convection buildup in the overall system... impressive TD tonight

[BobHarlem]

In our long running analysis did anyone expect a large storm like this? The circulation looks massive!

Yeah, makes me wonder if the surge potential is underestimated.

[JILL239]

Weather in Naples rain off and on heavy at times not too much wind and surprisingly I have not heard any thunder or seen any lightning.. I have a friend who is a police officer in Naples and said that they had closed the Naples Pier earlier just incase of wind.

Just an observation of a newbie who lives in Naples... not a forcast or anything to resemble that

[hurricaneCW]

It's starting to look like an actual storm instead of an amorphous sheared blob. Nice recent burst around center.

[Noles2016]

Long time mostly-lurker... used to have an account, but forgot my email and login info...

I live south of Tallahassee in Wakulla County... should be in for some interesting weather these next few days...

[Evil Jeremy]

It's starting to look like the kind of storm that can ramp up on you quickly if in a good environment.

[Frank P]

Ha, wonder what models throughout the course of time had 99l impacting the Yucatan with feeder bands.... NONE...

[psyclone]

Long time mostly-lurker... used to have an account, but forgot my email and login info...

I live south of Tallahassee in Wakulla County... should be in for some interesting weather these next few days...

Yes you should. You are definitely in the hot zone. Please keep us posted with your observations

[galaxy401]

This is the best this storm has looked in it's lifetime so far...I know that's not saying much but still.

[Stormcenter]

That is correct, to say the models have had trouble with TD#9 is an understatement. IMO

Ha, wonder what models throughout the course of time had 99l impacting the Yucatan with feeder bands.... NONE...

[HurricaneBelle]

Still not Hermine.

WTNT34 KNHC 310255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 87.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Hammy]

It's starting to look like an actual storm instead of an amorphous sheared blob. Nice recent burst around center.

Roughly where the banding is. Still very lopsided and isn't winding up the slightest bit so the center continues to be west of the convection.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The convective organization of the cyclone has improved markedly
since this time yesterday, and especially since the previous
advisory, with a large convective cloud mass having developed around
the well-defined low-level center. Ship C6FN5 located about 80 nmi
south of the center at 00Z reported a 35-kt wind, but at an elevated
height of 43 meters, which adjusts down to a 10-meter wind of 30-31
kt. The recent NOAA recon flight also confirmed that winds of about
30 kt existed, so the intensity will remain unchanged at 30 kt for
this advisory.

Fixes from the NOAA aircraft indicated a west-southwestward motion
over the previous 6 hours. However, this is believed to be a
temporary motion that was likely just the result of the center
redeveloping closer to strongest convection in the southern
quadrant. Since that time, little motion or just a slight drift
toward the north-northwest at 2 kt is indicated by satellite
imagery. The latest 00Z upper-air data showed the depression is now
located along or just north of the subtropical ridge axis that is
oriented east-west across the Florida Straits, a steering pattern
that favors a northward motion during the next 12 hours or so. After
that time, the NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on a
shortwave trough currently over the central U.S. digging
southeastward to the northeast Gulf coast and lifting out and
accelerating the cyclone toward the northeast by 36 hours. Due to
the uncertainty in the short term motion, the new official forecast
was not shifted as far west as the latest model consensus and
instead lies very close to the previous advisory track.

Unlike the previous several days, deep convection has finally
developed north of the low-level center during the past 6 hours,
and more recent satellite trends suggest that some inner-core
curved banding features may be developing. The upper-level outflow
has been improving and expanding in all quadrants now that the
vertical wind shear has decreased to less than 10 kt and has shifted
from a northerly to a westerly component. Some additional decrease
in the shear is forecast to occur for the next 36 to 48 hours while
the cyclone remains in a modestly moist environment. The NHC
intensity guidance has increased as a result of the improving
environmental conditions, so the official intensity forecast has
also been increased, which now shows the cyclone near hurricane
strength just prior to landfall at 48 hours. No changes to the
existing hurricane and tropical storm watches are required at this
time. However, by Wednesday morning, a tropical storm watch may be
needed for the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is
likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 24.3N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.1N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 27.8N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 29.6N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 33.4N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 37.1N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 39.0N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

[N2FSU]

Long time mostly-lurker... used to have an account, but forgot my email and login info...

I live south of Tallahassee in Wakulla County... should be in for some interesting weather these next few days...

Hey neighbor. Up the road from you in NE Tallahassee. Mother-in-law is in Wakulla near Spring Creek. Stay safe!

[SunnyThoughts]

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H haha, why not just say stationary, how can you even measure something so large moving in any direction at 2 mph?

[xcool22]

Sorry but not move nnw.move wnw imo .not pro here

[JaxGator]

For now, the NHC has increased the intensity forecast at landfall to 70 mph (right below hurricane strength). It looks great now. Definitely organizing.