ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SolarBear73]

00z GFS is running now. Could be interesting

[NWFL56]

Long time mostly-lurker... used to have an account, but forgot my email and login info...

I live south of Tallahassee in Wakulla County... should be in for some interesting weather these next few days...

Hey neighbor. Up the road from you in NE Tallahassee. Mother-in-law is in Wakulla near Spring Creek. Stay safe!

Paying attention too.

[galaxy401]

When is the next recon mission heading to this system?

[toad strangler]

Outflow on TD9 ..... all around definitely the best it has looked since coming off Africa. Certainly presents like a TS now.

[floridasun78]

it likely be ts by 5am

[Hurricaneman]

it likely be ts by 5am

most likely if organizational trends continue

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[RazorTracks]

If the models continue their trend NHC will have to shift back west at some point. I still don't get why NHC would shift south and east...

That's what I'm having trouble understanding too. Why would the angle at which it hooks NE continue to increase as it moves SW/SSW, unless the pull from that incoming trough is just THAT strong? I'm not seeing any indications that it'll be stronger than average.

Besides, if it was indeed that strong wouldn't the track have the same "end" point in NE Florida regardless of current location? We may be splitting hairs here but it could ultimately make a big difference when you factor Tampa into the equation.

[sponger]

Just about to cover the entire GOM, at least with minimally moist air. I'm thinking that it may have grown too large with CoCs that are currently too weak to spin it up much, which would explain the lack of raising winds and TS upgrade.

First post by the way, even though I've been reading the boards for a long time now as a guest. I'm from Arkansas and have learned as much as I can absorb when it comes to tornadoes, so I thought I'd take an interest in tropical weather. I've stayed glued to this forum for about 8 days straight now

Welcome razor! Arkansas is a fine state. Best keep secret in America! You will find hurricanes every bit as interesting as tornadoes!

[JKingTampa]

Still kinda curious why Tampa Bay doesnt have at least a tropical storm watch while there's a hurricane watch the next County up.

[pcolaman]

Still kinda curious why Tampa Bay doesnt have at least a tropical storm watch while there's a hurricane watch the next County up.

Model trends

[psyclone]

For now, the NHC has increased the intensity forecast at landfall to 70 mph (right below hurricane strength). It looks great now. Definitely organizing.

]
Yeah it may reach Cat 1 status upon landfall. Going to be very interesting next 48 -60 hours here in Northeast Fl.and the North Florida region

It's really strange. All of the counties along the I75 corridor within the cone have had tropical storm watches put in place as well as a hurricane statement. Can't say that I remember ever seeing both at the same time before. I live in Marion county, btw.

Are you referring to the hurricane local statement issued by the NWS? If so those are issued to cover local effects in an area impacted by tropical weather. Even an approaching TS will trigger a hurricane local statement from the NWS. My current local forecast contains a hurricane local statement and I'm not even in the watch area. Ruskin put one out for their counties

[JKingTampa]

]
Yeah it may reach Cat 1 status upon landfall. Going to be very interesting next 48 -60 hours here in Northeast Fl.and the North Florida region

It's really strange. All of the counties along the I75 corridor within the cone have had tropical storm watches put in place as well as a hurricane statement. Can't say that I remember ever seeing both at the same time before. I live in Marion county, btw.

Are you referring to the hurricane local statement issued by the NWS? If so those are issued to cover local effects in an area impacted by tropical weather. Even an approaching TS will trigger a hurricane local statement from the NWS. My current local forecast contains a hurricane local statement and I'm not even in the watch area. Ruskin put one out for their counties

Yeah we have one in Pinellas also.

[sponger]

This larger than I expected structure could have real issues with flooding into Cedar key and Tampa. Even with a shift I am expecting plenty of action on the dirty side of the storm. Generator is still ready to go since Jeanne, 12 years ago.

[NWFL56]

If the models continue their trend NHC will have to shift back west at some point. I still don't get why NHC would shift south and east...

Some of the forecast position / max wind coordinates are a little confusing. They do seem to indicate a shift East before landfall.

[benh316]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It required looking at infrared with no enhancements due to time of night... But the center of circulation is very visible if you don't blink

[psyclone]

Still kinda curious why Tampa Bay doesnt have at least a tropical storm watch while there's a hurricane watch the next County up.

I would imagine it's still a function of their latest wind probabilities. they are still 30% or less south of the watch area, although it looks like 40% probs extend as far as Clearwater beach or so. Nevertheless watch for future track updates. If it goes a little more west..like toward Apalachicola (very possible) the wind probs for the tampa bay area will decrease. Kinda of a close shave anyway you slice it. I envision us getting waves of squalls with gusty winds with not so terrible weather in between. should be rather chaotic interesting weather.

[benh316]

If the models continue their trend NHC will have to shift back west at some point. I still don't get why NHC would shift south and east...

Some of the forecast position / max wind coordinates are a little confusing. They do seem to indicate a shift East before landfall.

I'm not sold that this storm is going as far north and west as the models predict. I feel as if it will boomerang and come back further east... Much further

[SeGaBob]

When is the next recon mission heading to this system?

I'd like to know this also.

[tropicwatch]

Should be taking off anytime now.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 31/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE
C. 31/0400Z
D. 25.5N 86.9W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[mobilebay]

When is the next recon mission heading to this system?

I'd like to know this also.

I think one is scheduled for 06z . They should be leaving shortly