ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Trough could bring this east instead of Northeast.

Think Hernando County up is safe.

You must mean Hernando County and down/south.

[pcolaman]

Well still drifting to the west I see very slowly. The turn hasn't happened yet . I hope that they don't think that turn is going to be that strong. Look for another shift to the west next update. Why not upgraded to TS yet ? Humm interesting.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Well still drifting to the west I see very slowly. The turn hasn't happened yet . I hope that they don't think that turn is going to be that strong. Look for another shift to the west next update. Why not upgraded to TS yet ? Humm interesting.

why wouldnt it shift east then, it gets grabbed by the trough?

[CourierPR]

Well still drifting to the west I see very slowly. The turn hasn't happened yet . I hope that they don't think that turn is going to be that strong. Look for another shift to the west next update. Why not upgraded to TS yet ? Humm interesting.

What would that shift west be based on?

[JKingTampa]

I'm not sure it's going west anymore. If anything I believe the convection could start pulling it east.

[northjaxpro]

1001mb TD? Interesting...there are people in harm's way who think this is a TD. They will go to work and not realize until it is evening and dark what may be coming. Do we really need recon to upgrade it? It is likely a TS. We have upgraded less.

Surreal Look at that storm on IR. You're telling me that's only a TD? I've said it already but something is very wrong when NHC won't upgrade THAT.

There's nothing wrong with the NHC. They are the best of the best at what they do. They won't name a storm just because it looks good on IR or on any satellite presentation. The storm must meet certain criteria to be named and apparently that criteria hasn't been met yet. So just relax and let the experts do their job.

This is a good post. You think it has been frustrating for us. Well, I can only imagine how maddening it has been for the experts down at the NHC. I know Jack Beven when we attended Florida State together and he is one of the analysts down there. He has often told me what he does and has experienced in his time down at NHC. I know how those guys down there work and I have the upmost respect for them.They have a very tough job and responsibility and I do not envy them one bit. This system here is a perfect example of how challeging forecasting tropical cyclones can often bring to the table.

[drezee]

"Diminishes ability" lol
This is not about the science or ability. This is a judgment call on the path of least regret. Plain and simple...if it were in the middle of the Atlantic I would agree wholeheartedly. This is a different situation and lives matter.

[benh316]

Well still drifting to the west I see very slowly. The turn hasn't happened yet . I hope that they don't think that turn is going to be that strong. Look for another shift to the west next update. Why not upgraded to TS yet ? Humm interesting.

why wouldnt it shift east then, it gets grabbed by the trough?

It would and I believe will. I call it the "boomerang" effect because systems like these have a tendency to backtrack because smaller variables have a stronger reaction on their path. So instead of "plowing" through shear or unfavorable conditions, they most often take paths of least resistance and allow themselves to be pushed away from the unfavorable.

In this case that means somewhat backwards

[tolakram]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

[RL3AO]

Where would it stop? It's 5 mph under a hurricane do we say let's make it a hurricane to get people's attention? Do we call Ike a cat 3 at landfall to get people's attention?

[abajan]

Wow, looks amazing on IR... like Jupiter's red spot! I guess looks can be deceiving... This has to be the biggest convective burst so far. You have to think pressures would lower a bit from this...

This system certainly seems like it has lasted as long as that!

[GCANE]

85GHz PCT Image about 2.5 hrs ago is showing off-the-scale deep convection.

This can be correlated with rain-rate which directly builds the core and warms it up.

Here's a link descrbing the product in more detail:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_training ... index.html

[benh316]

"Diminishes ability" lol
This is not about the science or ability. This is a judgment call on the path of least regret. Plain and simple...if it were in the middle of the Atlantic I would agree wholeheartedly. This is a different situation and lives matter.

Issues like these arise at all levels of government and public trust - where the experts have to satisfy professional requirements (bureaucratic tape) that were established by a committee or collective of experts in years and times prior.

That's another way of saying they have criteria that simply cannot be waived from system to system. Remember that like most government agencies - fear mitigation trumps catastrophe mitigation

[tolakram]

Here's a 30 frame IR loop. Latest burst has been going on for 4 hours. Impressive burst but it needs to maintain these kinds of burst to actually strengthen. In my amateur opinion.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[GCANE]

Started firing a high-rain-rate hot tower at 0735Z. We'll see how long it lasts.

[drezee]

Where would it stop? It's 5 mph under a hurricane do we say let's make it a hurricane to get people's attention? Do we call Ike a cat 3 at landfall to get people's attention?

You are arguing a point that no one is making. The upgrade criteria and and will always have a subjective aspect to it. There are instances that ADT numbers have been used to upgrade systems without recon. There have been time that we have said storms were lower and stated that "we conservatively set the wind speed to x until recon can arrive to verify." I have not said anything bad about the NHC. I am stating facts of human nature. I believe the path of least regret is the make it 40mph to give it a name to raise awareness. We have done it before. Do not get over protective of people you don't even know and not understand the point being made. I actually know the director of the NHC. The decision to upgrade can be quite a bit more bureaucratic that you realize.

[GCANE]

Currently getting a feed from a High Theta-E ridge to its west at 361 and CAPE at 3500

[GeneratorPower]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

Well, because this is weird. It's not normal. The fact that at least two posters who've been around a while think this is unusual and questionable, well, I think it's interesting.

My puzzlement is precisely because I've watched the NHC name storms for so long. They are usually more liberal. This year has been tighter and this storm extremely tight and by the book. That's unusual.

[GCANE]

Now, that's a hot-tower

[linkerweather]

Where would it stop? It's 5 mph under a hurricane do we say let's make it a hurricane to get people's attention? Do we call Ike a cat 3 at landfall to get people's attention?

You are arguing a point that no one is making. The upgrade criteria and and will always have a subjective aspect to it. There are instances that ADT numbers have been used to upgrade systems without recon. There have been time that we have said storms were lower and stated that "we conservatively set the wind speed to x until recon can arrive to verify." I have not said anything bad about the NHC. I am stating facts of human nature. I believe the path of least regret is the make it 40mph to give it a name to raise awareness. We have done it before. Do not get over protective of people you don't even know and not understand the point being made. I actually know the director of the NHC. The decision to upgrade can be quite a bit more bureaucratic that you realize.

The fact that the NHC has tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches posted automatically triggers emergency managers and media attention. So, the fact that it is still NOW a TD is not relevant and the NHC has done the correct thing in this case. If you are under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning and still have complacency then Darwin was correct