ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Today should be a very fun day. Looks like the storm should pass just to our north in Jacksonville, although it's too early to be certain. I'm expecting TS watches to go up for NE Florida and SE Georgia at 11.

[GCANE]

Looks like the tower punched thru the tropopause. Seeing gravity waves in the cirrus SE of it at around 23N 88W to 89W

[SapphireSea]

Based on what i saw, they should have at least put us under T.S. watches. As generator said it commands more attention. I can 100 percent assure that no one was expecting that today. Heck l track theae things and wasnt expecting tjat in just 4 hours. Had it been named or t.s. warnings or watches maybe schools would have been closed. Looked like every kid was late to school today and it was extremely hazardous.

Sounds like a failure on the part of local management and schools and parents rather than forecasters. Neither here nor there. The system seems to be getting its act together, however this is DMAX lets see how it holds up. Rain threat and surge is always more concerning than winds.

[SunnyThoughts]

Read on another board where a ship reported 43mph sustained wind nearly right in the middle of that convection. Guess NHC will have to go by satellite and ship reports until they can get recon in there.

[RL3AO]

Based on what i saw, they should have at least put us under T.S. watches. As generator said it commands more attention. I can 100 percent assure that no one was expecting that today. Heck l track these things and wasnt expecting that in just 4 hours. Had it been named or t.s. warnings or watches maybe schools would have been closed. Looked like every kid was late to school today and it was extremely hazardous.

You should have had TS watches for a storm like almost certainly won't bring you TS conditions because you got a lot of rain two days ahead of a TC hitting 300 miles north of you?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/770964257202589696

[wxman57]

We have a recon ship out there now. It's at 24.2N/87.6W reporting SW wind at 35 kts. Center looks to be a bit north of there, maybe 24.8N or 24.9N. Likely "Hermine" now.

[JaxGator]

There was a report that the HurricaneTracker App retweeted that at 7:38am CDT, a sustained wind of 43 mph was measured by a ship right under the convection. Don't know which hight it was measured though.

[caneman]

Based on what i saw, they should have at least put us under T.S. watches. As generator said it commands more attention. I can 100 percent assure that no one was expecting that today. Heck l track these things and wasnt expecting that in just 4 hours. Had it been named or t.s. warnings or watches maybe schools would have been closed. Looked like every kid was late to school today and it was extremely hazardous.

You should have had TS watches for a storm like almost certainly won't bring you TS conditions because you got a lot of rain two days ahead of a TC hitting 300 miles north of you?

Apalachicola isnt 300 miles north as a crow flies, more like 150 and only 80 to cedar key from clearwater. I'm on the very western edge, beaches of Pinellas county and usually do experience t.s. winds on brush byes. Its further west than the Anclote River so I can assure you if they get t.s. winds the very western part of pinellas will as well. It's not even just an issue of if you get 35 or 40 mph it's the preparedness aspect. One is taken more seriously than the another. Lastly, I'm not here to debate, it's my opinion. I've lived here since 76 so I speak from experience.

[StormTracker]

no on recon yet ?

I thought someone said they had some mechanical issues but now had taken off but I don't know
how to access the site to verify.

Nothing showing on FlightAware...http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

[NDG]

It looks to me that the LLC is still closer to the 24th latitude than to the 25th latitude, MLC still to the east of the LLC.

[Dean4Storms]

There was a report that the HurricaneTracker App retweeted that at 7:38am CDT, a sustained wind of 43 mph was measured by a ship right under the convection. Don't know which hight it was measured though.

Think I read where the reading was around 40 meters above sea level.

[jlauderdal]

The discussion by the NHC is pretty good at explaining their reasoning. The reliable models have indicated this won't start to ramp up for another 12 to 24 hours so I'm not sure why people are looking at IR images and thinking the NHC is crazy. Especially those folks who have been around a while.

9 has been significantly misaligned from its mid level center for days. That's why we keep having these blow-ups of impressive convection only to see them die again. There is no support from the surface to keep them going. Conditions should be allowing the two to stack today, but I'd caution against thinking this thing is putting on a round of quick intensification just because we see pretty strong convection. The strong convection will help fix the problem, but as of sundown last night the MLC was still well to the south of the surface one. We will see. My biggest disappointment is no recon. They should be in there already.

Definitely needs more recon. But that is actually understandable due to Hawaii threats and multiple Atlantic storms. There's only so many resources.

Different planes for pacific folks...thats not the issue..its the usaf, plenty of planes to handle the current situation...there is a recon schedule for all to see on the nhc site..no mystery here

[tropicwatch]

There was a report that the HurricaneTracker App retweeted that at 7:38am CDT, a sustained wind of 43 mph was measured by a ship right under the convection. Don't know which hight it was measured though.

Think I read where the reading was around 40 meters above sea level.

That's a big ship.

[RL3AO]

USAF is covering the Pacific. NOAA is covering the Atlantic but they only have two planes. Hopefully USAF can help out if things ramp up quickly.

[JaxGator]

It was measured out of the SW as wxman57 mentioned a page back.

[TropicalSailor]

There was a report that the HurricaneTracker App retweeted that at 7:38am CDT, a sustained wind of 43 mph was measured by a ship right under the convection. Don't know which hight it was measured though.

Think I read where the reading was around 40 meters above sea level.

That's a big ship.

Cargo ship freeboard + superstructure + mast is tall but 131' is pushing it. Is say 75-90 feet is more realistic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/Accu_Jesse/status/770969675912081408

[Blinhart]

Think I read where the reading was around 40 meters above sea level.

That's a big ship.

Cargo ship freeboard + superstructure + mast is tall but 131' is pushing it. Is say 60-70 feet is more realistic.

Not really it could be a Cruise Ship, they have 18 decks and at the most 4 of them are below water. So that would be 14 decks above sea level which if you figure each deck is at least 12 feet tall so that would make 148 feet above sea level so that would be 45 meters above sea level.

[tigerz3030]

Just got alert that Valdosta GA is under tropical storm watch. Starting to add these watches north and pretty soon east I would imagine.