ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 24:46:57 N Lon : 88:02:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 4.2

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees

Overdone but even it agrees satellite presentation is good.

[NDG]

This is where I believe the LLC is near 24.2N & 88.2W, in red.
The MLC I have it just to the east of it, in blue.
The Circulation looks like is elongated SW to NE.

[MGC]

09L has an impressive satellite presentation this morning.....likely a TS now. Sure wish it would get moving. I hate when tropical cyclones sit and fester. More time over water increases the odds of a hurricane at landfall IMO......MGC

[NDG]

Has anyone seen this recent ASCAT pass? It's 3 hours old so it might look different by now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrLpdjFWEAA2jDm.jpg

Is 10 hours old, not 3 hours, time stamp on the bottom in UTC.

[Frank2]

NOAA43 was to take off at 1130Z but not yet airborne, apparently due to mechanical or technical problems...

[Aric Dunn]

with the only two notable curved bands the center appears to be just north of 24N still around 87.5W. We may see some fairly rapid intensification today.

[tropicwatch]

[quote="NDG"]This is where I believe the LLC is near 18.2N & 88.2W, in red.
The MLC I have it just to the east of it, in blue.
The Circulation looks like is elongated SW to NE.

You mean 24.2N

[psyclone]

TS wind pros for the Tampa Bay area went down with the last advisory so the decision not to include them in a watch area looks good so far. If the track edges more to the west those already low odds will drop more. Any eastward shift and warnings can be extended down the coast. Regardless the real hazard has always been and continues to remain heavy rain. A flood watch is out for 8-12" of rain expected. The hazards for the bay area are well advertised for those with eyes to see and ears to hear and they always have been. I have to sift through a lot of junk on this forum to find stuff of value. That's unfortunate

[tigerz3030]

With it tilted SW to NE, will it start going more NE sooner?

[Blinhart]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 24:46:57 N Lon : 88:02:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 4.2

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees

Overdone but even it agrees satellite presentation is good.

With this, the ship reporting the 43 MPH wind, do you think they might up this to at least a 40 MPH TS or wait the 3 or 4 hours for Recon to get in there and might find a system that is starting to bomb out and it is already at 65 MPH and pressure down to like 985. I think right now it is probably a 45MPH TS with a pressure around 998. Looks like it could be starting to ramp up.

[JaxGator]

Has anyone seen this recent ASCAT pass? It's 3 hours old so it might look different by now.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrLpdjFWEAA2jDm.jpg

Is 10 hours old, not 3 hours, time stamp on the bottom in UTC.

Opps..sorry. My bad. Got it from a tweet Michael Ventrice posted.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like they have one scheduled to take off at 11am central time.

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 31/1730Z,2330Z A. 01/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA3 1109A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 1209A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0400Z
D. 26.3N 86.7W D. 27.5N 85.5W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2330Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[tarheelprogrammer]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2016 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 24:46:57 N Lon : 88:02:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 988.7mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 4.2

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees

Overdone but even it agrees satellite presentation is good.

With this, the ship reporting the 43 MPH wind, do you think they might up this to at least a 40 MPH TS or wait the 3 or 4 hours for Recon to get in there and might find a system that is starting to bomb out and it is already at 65 MPH and pressure down to like 985. I think right now it is probably a 45MPH TS with a pressure around 998. Looks like it could be starting to ramp up.

Almost all METS I have talked to believe this is a TS now and many believe it was late last night/early this morning.

[NDG]

This is where I believe the LLC is near 18.2N & 88.2W, in red.
The MLC I have it just to the east of it, in blue.
The Circulation looks like is elongated SW to NE.

You mean 24.2N

Yes, thank you. I will correct.

[benh316]

FYI everyone - Governor Rick Scott has issued Executive Order 16-205 declaring a state of emergency in 42 counties within the state of Florida in preparation for Tropical Depression Nine.

Governor Scott said, "Last night, hurricane and tropical storm watches were issued along Florida’s Gulf Coast from Pasco County to Gulf County. We also learned that the National Hurricane Center expects Tropical Depression Nine to become a Tropical Storm sometime today. It is crucial that every Floridian has a plan in place to ensure their families, homes and businesses are fully prepared. Floridians can make their own plan at FLGetaPlan.com. I have been closely monitoring this storm’s development and our emergency management officials have been working hard to make sure we are ready to respond to any potential impacts. By declaring a state of emergency in advance of this storm, we are ensuring that state, regional and local agencies can work together to meet the needs of our communities. We will continue to do all we can to keep our families and visitors safe and informed as this storm approaches our state."

[Frank2]

The system has been up and down during it's lifetime (3 hours from now the convection might be gone again), so no doubt the NHC will wait for recon before upgrading. The 43 mph wind reported by a ship might have been in a thunderstorm (we had similar winds here yesterday during a thunderstorm), so not enough for upgrading.

Frank

[GCANE]

Pressure still not doing much at the closest buoy.

I think we still have a few hours for the core to heat up until it really starts to drop.

[toad strangler]

This will be Hermine @ 11AM

[Aric Dunn]

the ship National Glory reported pressure of 1003mb about 20 miles south of the center about an hour ago.

[caneman]

TS wind pros for the Tampa Bay area went down with the last advisory so the decision not to include them in a watch area looks good so far. If the track edges more to the west those already low odds will drop more. Any eastward shift and warnings can be extended down the coast. Regardless the real hazard has always been and continues to remain heavy rain. A flood watch is out for 8-12" of rain expected. The hazards for the bay area are well advertised for those with eyes to see and ears to hear and they always have been. I have to sift through a lot of junk on this forum to find stuff of value. That's unfortunate

Feel free to pass by what you see as junk. Junk posts are in the eye of the beholder. What may be junk for you doesn't mean it's junk for others. My reasoning for my posts stands, you're entitled to your opinion as am I and others. It doesn't make either one of us right. After all, your post doesnt seem needed and could just as easily be deemed as junk. Tolerance is always good. Let's stay on topic now.