ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otterlyspicey]

Step 1: Write storm off because it looks like crap.
Step 2: "OMG ITS EXPLODING NOW LOOK AT THOSE STORMS FIRING"
Step 3: "It's gotta be a tropical storm now, looks at that convection!"
Step 4: Cloud tops blow away into sadness as shear shows it's ugly face again.
Step 5: Repeat steps 1-4

Lol MAYBE we get an end to this and FINALLY have some actual development today? Hopefully we can stop at Step 3 on this beautiful Wednesday? Lol

[GCANE]

Now getting a second infeed of high CAPE air.
New feed from the SE of the CoC at 3500. Coming from the Loop Current just east of Cancun.
Still getting the feed in from the west at 3500.

[Blinhart]

Pressure still not doing much at the closest buoy.

I think we still have a few hours for the core to heat up until it really starts to drop.

29.72 is 1006, so that is a pressure drop

[Aric Dunn]

the low over the NE gulf and north Florida and Georgia are beginning to take shape as some of the models were point at.. now to see how they actually interact.

looks like its causing some inflow restriction from the NE ...

[tropicwatch]

A ship apparently 36nm from the NHC 7am position reported a pressure of 29.62.

Source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

[Tireman4]

A sidebar,

I wonder if we get to 300 pages before/if this becomes a Tropical Storm. My gracious.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/770983185740103681

[Bigpapa]

I have never seen rain like this in my entire life. Had to take my kid to school many roads flooded, a lake crested it banks and flooded the roads. Parking lots completely covered in water, yards. It's finally letting up but we just got more in 4 hours than i have ever seen!! Im,not exaggerating either. Had I not had a truck, I'm sure I would have stalled on several ocassions. FHP will need to block off some roads. Anyone have an idea how much rain just feel in those 4 hours? You guys are sitting here debating wind speed, I've lived here since 76 and been through many storms and never seen rain like this, you'd better worry more about rainfall.

Fox 13 Dave Osterberg reported 6" of rain had fallen at Clearwater Beach in the last 6 hours

[dixiebreeze]

Dark and cloudy this morning in the Cone area. Supermarkets are busy with people stocking up on goods. Getting ready to secure yard objects. Have plenty of pantry stuff and a terrific lantern. Figuring power loss will be primary aggravation (hopefully). Also expecting a pretty significant storm surge from Hernando to Cedar Key.

[JaxGator]

Some Mets have said that the trough could provide a new outflow channel, still enabling the storm to strengthen. Didn't the same thing happen with Charley and Wilma?

[MississippiWx]

Bastardi tweeted ship south of 9 reported a WSW wind of 36.9kts.

[Aric Dunn]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/770983185740103681

That 06z NAM should be thrown out of the average.
BTW, hr 06z GFS has it a 999mb at landfall not 1004mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Bastardi tweeted ship south of 9 reported a WSW wind of 36.9kts.

yes this one..

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ll=WDD4207

[JaxGator]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

In what way would that affect the storm? Do any of the models have it?

[SouthDadeFish]

Some Mets have said that the trough could provide a new outflow channel, still enabling the storm to strengthen. Didn't the same thing happen with Charley and Wilma?

TC-trough interactions are a hotly debated and researched subject in the TC community. As a whole, recent work has seemed to find troughs are unfavorable for TC intensification, but there are definitely some exceptions to the rule. The overly simplified pros and cons are this:

Trough pros:
Possible enhanced divergent upper-level flow
Eddy momentum fluxes acting to spin up the TC
Possible forcing for ascent

Trough cons:
Possible increase in wind shear
Possible increase in dry air

It really depends on the trough configuration relative to the TC and each case is different.

[MississippiWx]

We've had enough visible frames now to easily tell the surface center is well under the convection. If it is aligned with the MLC, Hermine (yes, Hermine) is about to strengthen quickly. Big if on the alignment part.

[Aric Dunn]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/770983185740103681

That 06z NAM should be thrown out of the average.
BTW, hr 06z GFS has it a 999mb at landfall not 1004mb.

The reason the nam is stronger is its much slower and thus more time to strengthen. dont follow the nam for strength but for the trough placment and speed its a good model for synoptic features. right now its the only model that has this current slow drift/stall thats been going on. it has it lasting for another 24 + hours before it starts moving. something to watch out for if its slower to start moving.

[MississippiWx]

Bastardi tweeted ship south of 9 reported a WSW wind of 36.9kts.

yes this one..

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ll=WDD4207

36.9kts from the WSW is significant. If true, would mean Hermine is strengthening quickly.

[JaxGator]

Some Mets have said that the trough could provide a new outflow channel, still enabling the storm to strengthen. Didn't the same thing happen with Charley and Wilma?

TC-trough interactions are a hotly debated and researched subject in the TC community. As a whole, recent work has seemed to find troughs are unfavorable for TC intensification, but there are definitely some exceptions to the rule. The overly simplified pros and cons are this:

Trough pros:
Possible enhanced divergent upper-level flow
Eddy momentum fluxes acting to spin up the TC
Possible forcing for ascent

Trough cons:
Possible increase in wind shear
Possible increase in dry air

It really depends on the trough configuration relative to the TC and each case is different.

Thank you, this helped a lot. We'll see what happens then.