ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

We've had enough visible frames now to easily tell the surface center is well under the convection. If it is aligned with the MLC, Hermine (yes, Hermine) is about to strengthen quickly. Big if on the alignment part.

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

[Aric Dunn]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

In what way would that affect the storm? Do any of the models have it?

the affect is hard to say. most models develop something over atlantic waters not the gulf thats a lot closer short to it may inhibit the in flow. track is hard to say..

[Evil Jeremy]

We've had enough visible frames now to easily tell the surface center is well under the convection. If it is aligned with the MLC, Hermine (yes, Hermine) is about to strengthen quickly. Big if on the alignment part.

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

There is no indication that this will make landfall anywhere other than North Florida.

[drezee]

NOAA...please get recon out there...remember Opal....

This is starting to remind me of Opal. It had the same look and frequent bursts right before RI...it was being picked up by a trough as well....I do not like what I see...I fear that we may have much more than a 70mph TS at landfall

[Blinhart]

I think the NAM might be a little out there, but I wouldn't be surprised if this system does go in at the Big Bend to be around 960.

[KWT]

TD9 certainty is giving the forecasters headaches.

The face quite a few models drop close to 990mbs shows they think the setup will continue to improve.

Looks decent aloft but wonder what surface setup is like. Very Fay like in that respect

[Frank P]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

Yep, shows up well on the water vapor loop too... My opinion is that the models are pretty spot on regarding track ATM, and in all likelihood should start that N to NE motion sometime today... as far as intensity best guess would be a strong TS or minimal hurricane, regardless depending on forward motion could be a lot of rain, and perhaps tornados in the EF-0 to EF-1 range in the affect areas... but of course this is the tropics, its late August, and nothing is in concrete with mother nature... been tracking storms for a long time, seems like many always have a surprise down the road prior to final impact.. good luck to all those in harms way!

[tolakram]

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

I'm not sure this is true. The GFS, which has been pretty darn accurate for this storm, shows a very disorganized system for another 24 hours with vorticity moving all over the place. I understand people are worried about getting a surprise but I'm not certain anything else can be done. If more warnings are issued and it ends up not effecting those areas then we will hear another round of 'hype!' from a different group.

[benh316]

We've had enough visible frames now to easily tell the surface center is well under the convection. If it is aligned with the MLC, Hermine (yes, Hermine) is about to strengthen quickly. Big if on the alignment part.

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

There is no indication that this will make landfall anywhere other than North Florida.

But what are the indicators we are supposedly looking at? If by indicators we are referring to the contemporary modeling systems that have a degree error of about 500 miles.. great. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside... or was that the pressure dropping?

My point is that these modeling systems have been so far off base, I don't know how the professionals can stand by them for underdeveloped systems that are not affected in the same way by the same variables as some fully developed systems. How are government officials supposed to rely on this information? The public?

I don't want to get into a debate or off course (pun intended) on this thread, but are we saying that it is not even a remote possibility the track will be different?

[txwatcher91]

One thing to keep in mind, RI is usually not forecasted very well in advance by computer models. If this LLC and MLC are stacked or almost stacked then this is primed for fast organization. While the 4km NAM seems off its rocker with a sub 940mb storm it certainly is within the realm of possibility. Residents need to pay close attention for this and prepare for a much stronger storm, it's better to be prepared for a cat 2 or 3 than to be caught off guard if that happens.

[Evil Jeremy]

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

There is no indication that this will make landfall anywhere other than North Florida.

But what are the indicators we are supposedly looking at? If by indicators we are referring to the contemporary modeling systems that have a degree error of about 500 miles.. great. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside... or was that the pressure dropping?

My point is that these modeling systems have been so far off base, I don't know how the professionals can stand by them for underdeveloped systems that are not affected in the same way by the same variables as some fully developed systems. How are government officials supposed to rely on this information? The public?

I don't want to get into a debate or off course (pun intended) on this thread, but are we saying that it is not even a remote possibility the track will be different?

Because right now the models have a tight consensus within 48 hours of landfall, which is a reliable range to determine North Florida is where this will land.

[MississippiWx]

TD 9...Lol.

[Nimbus]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

Yep, shows up well on the water vapor loop too... My opinion is that the models are pretty spot on regarding track ATM, and in all likelihood should start that N to NE motion sometime today... as far as intensity best guess would be a strong TS or minimal hurricane, regardless depending on forward motion could be a lot of rain, and perhaps tornados in the EF-0 to EF-1 range in the affect areas... but of course this is the tropics, its late August, and nothing is in concrete with mother nature... been tracking storms for a long time, seems like many always have a surprise down the road prior to final impact.. good luck to all those in harms way!

''

I think the "boundary low" you see is the outflow channel leading from 9 to the ULL over the Carolinas. That ULL has been drifting further N and eventually it may follow 8 to sea.
Question is whether the track delay TD9 is experiencing will allow some ridging to build in that area of the northern gulf.

Only trough potential I can see with the WV imagery is still west of Texas.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[ronjon]

That 06z NAM should be thrown out of the average.
BTW, hr 06z GFS has it a 999mb at landfall not 1004mb.

The reason the nam is stronger is its much slower and thus more time to strengthen. dont follow the nam for strength but for the trough placment and speed its a good model for synoptic features. right now its the only model that has this current slow drift/stall thats been going on. it has it lasting for another 24 + hours before it starts moving. something to watch out for if its slower to start moving.

I think the NAM might be a little out there, but I wouldn't be surprised if this system does go in at the Big Bend to be around 960.

It's the 4 km resolution NAM that shows the extreme lower pressure - the 12km and 32km show the 990s range. I don't believe the 4 km mesoscale model show be used for tropical forecasting.

[Aric Dunn]

no one else noticing the NE gulf.. appears a boundary/low is forming inflow into TD9 is being pulled towards that convection very easily seen on sat and radar.

Yep, shows up well on the water vapor loop too... My opinion is that the models are pretty spot on regarding track ATM, and in all likelihood should start that N to NE motion sometime today... as far as intensity best guess would be a strong TS or minimal hurricane, regardless depending on forward motion could be a lot of rain, and perhaps tornados in the EF-0 to EF-1 range in the affect areas... but of course this is the tropics, its late August, and nothing is in concrete with mother nature... been tracking storms for a long time, seems like many always have a surprise down the road prior to final impact.. good luck to all those in harms way!

''

I think the "boundary low" you see is the outflow channel leading from 9 to the ULL over the Carolinas. That ULL has been drifting further N and eventually it should follow 8 may to sea.
Question is whether the track delay TD9 is experiencing will allow some ridging to build in that area of the northern gulf.

Only trough potential I can see with the WV imagery is still west of Texas.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

yeah, however there is a surface feature there so interacting with it should happen that can cause a lot of wobbles or erratic motion.

[Aric Dunn]

The reason the nam is stronger is its much slower and thus more time to strengthen. dont follow the nam for strength but for the trough placment and speed its a good model for synoptic features. right now its the only model that has this current slow drift/stall thats been going on. it has it lasting for another 24 + hours before it starts moving. something to watch out for if its slower to start moving.

I think the NAM might be a little out there, but I wouldn't be surprised if this system does go in at the Big Bend to be around 960.

It's the 4 km resolution NAM that shows the extreme lower pressure - the 12km and 32km show the 990s range. I don't believe the 4 km mesoscale model show be used for tropical forecasting.

I use the 32km strictly for synoptic scale features.

[ronjon]

Anything on RECON scheduled yet? MUST...HAVE...RECON!

[NDG]

And there's the break in the ridge (weakness) developing over the SE US that TD 9 is forecasted to get pushed into by the approaching ridge from the east. The shorwave though over SE Canada/Great Lakes moving into the NE US is forecasted to pull the system NE.

[MississippiWx]

Don't like the looks of "TD9". Curved band has developed and the location of it points to a surface center being aligned with the mid-level center.

[psyclone]

Totally agree, but this is what is blowing my mind - we have models that are still reporting this system will take a more northerly track before heading east... yet none of the models accounted for a near complete stall (which is what it appears to be doing). All of this does not even include the fact all of the outflow from this system is moving away from it more south and east than those models...

None of this has been consistent with their modeling and yet we are basing all forecasting off this north Florida approach... and south Florida has its pants down. Great

There is no indication that this will make landfall anywhere other than North Florida.

But what are the indicators we are supposedly looking at? If by indicators we are referring to the contemporary modeling systems that have a degree error of about 500 miles.. great. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside... or was that the pressure dropping?

My point is that these modeling systems have been so far off base, I don't know how the professionals can stand by them for underdeveloped systems that are not affected in the same way by the same variables as some fully developed systems. How are government officials supposed to rely on this information? The public?

I don't want to get into a debate or off course (pun intended) on this thread, but are we saying that it is not even a remote possibility the track will be different?

The track hasn't varied too much since advisories were initiated. It was initially around cedar key (Levy County) and has since moved north and west to around Taylor county. It's been a pretty tight clustering so far but it almost always adjusts a tad each advisory.