ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

I have been tracking developing storms as a hobby weather enthusiast for 20 years and this is the strangest storm ever. Reminds me of Tropical Storm F*y.

[Aric Dunn]

however that is a pretty solid curved band wrapping all the way around the center.. recon still may find 40 to 45kts.

[RL3AO]

Think of this convective burst as the first step in setting up the local environment to give the system a chance to organize at a quicker rate. It needed this convection but it doesn't mean it's about to RI. It just means this step was needed if it as gonna have any chance to quickly deepen tonight or tomorrow.

[caneman]

For folks in Pinellas county there is additional torrential rain approaching from the south. this may aggravate existing flooding or cause earlier flooding that had receded to redevelop.. radar and satellite is showing a lot more activity forming. the flood threat is very real and developing earlier than many would have expected.

Yes, it is very real and I saw it first hand. A lake overflowed near where I live that never happened before. I ended up driving thru it which wasn't smart. I saw several roads completely flooded. I also saw idiots drive fast thru deep water and one completely awashed my car to where i couldn't see anything. Those 4 hours or torrential rainfall where the worst I'd ever experienced.

[Hurricaneman]

Id say that recon finds a 50kts storm but looks can be deceiving

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tropicwatch]

that and the 16 miles per hour is if it was already moving at 16mi/hr.. since its not that means it needs to get up to that speed which takes time which means it would have to eventually move 18 miles per hour.. sorry thats not happening lol

Note that the distance between their 0hr and 9hr points is 97 miles. That would equate to an average speed of 10.8 kts. That may be a little fast, but it will start accelerating NNE-NE in a week or two...

You do have a since of humor Love ya

[Bigpapa]

For folks in Pinellas county there is additional torrential rain approaching from the south. this may aggravate existing flooding or cause earlier flooding that had receded to redevelop.. radar and satellite is showing a lot more activity forming. the flood threat is very real and developing earlier than many would have expected.

I live in the Countryside area. Pool is already overflowing

[wxman57]

Here's a snapshot of my workstation. I had put the center north of the NHC's position, based on that earlier ship report and other ships in the area. I think there is likely at least some area of TS winds. Of course, if they'd send a plane out there it would help.

[robbielyn]

Up here in hernando county all the storms that are dumping on Clearwater on radar seems to weaken by the time it gets here. Maybe our air is dryer or more stable.

[tarheelprogrammer]

lol

 https://twitter.com/DoWeHaveHermine/status/771003559064182788

[Emmett_Brown]

Finally has that "shrimp" shape to it, this has to be a go for TS I would think.

[Hurricane Andrew]

lol

 https://twitter.com/DoWeHaveHermine/status/771003559064182788

I'm crying, lol. This is too perfect.

[CrazyC83]

When does Recon fly into the storm?

[benh316]

lol

 https://twitter.com/DoWeHaveHermine/status/771003559064182788

I'm crying, lol. This is too perfect.

I have a feeling this storm will be the "butt" of many jokes in years to come. With this said - now that the storm is stalling, I am calling out all of those models and people who stand by them. I say - your models are flawed and the system is going further south and east - way further.

And I plan on getting a toddler with a box of crayons to come up with a new spaghetti model spreadsheet to illustrate these possible tracks

[bg1]

its a tropical storm!!!

Correct! It is a storm originating from the tropics!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

In the last two frames it looks to be wrapping up.

[hohnywx]

When does Recon fly into the storm?

Should be taking off within the next 15 mins.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of curious that the showers along the west coast of Florida don't have more of an eastward component to them with that low over Georgia/SC.

[SeGaBob]

When does Recon fly into the storm?

Maybe in 10 minutes.

[Texashawk]

Is it possible that if the storm continues to remain nearly stationary (or the center keeps reforming southward towards the MLC) could it miss its appointment with the trough?

[OntarioEggplant]

Whoa new GFS shifted way west to landfall at Apalachicola.