ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otterlyspicey]

Yeah this thing definitely has trekked SE in the last hour or so. It's too prevalent on the satellite to not deny it.

[Aric Dunn]

wow GFS is much much slower and stronger. similar to well the NAM lol

[tolakram]

Hey look, it's turning. Now the question is, how stacked is it? Finally looks tropical in my opinion.

Speed up for best effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[Aric Dunn]

The LLC is not organized or is further south, recon is heading further south toward the MLC.

they turned away from the center look at the wind direction they were headed right at it.

I think that was more of a wind shift trough, pressure wasn't that low.

they were not there yet it was still wsw of them. unless we have two vorts lol

[tolakram]

Yeah this thing definitely has trekked SE in the last hour or so. It's too prevalent on the satellite to not deny it.

I suspect they might find the LLC is moving or reforming NE, as some of the models predicted. Just saying this here so we can see how wrong I am.

[JKingTampa]

Looks to be drifting more east than north.

[artist]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA ... F/tracklog hit load page twice to get a full log
I believe it is still out there, just not reporting their speed, etc. And here is their plannted flight pattern

Uh-oooo! Looks like the flight turned back!

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

Well that stinks, we really may have to wait until an eye forms before it gets a name

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

I guess they were heading towards the LLC, much further north than I thought.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311725
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20160831
171600 2440N 08633W 6971 03168 0055 +106 +069 173020 020 041 005 00
171630 2438N 08632W 6968 03171 0058 +103 +071 180018 019 036 001 00
171700 2437N 08631W 6969 03169 0063 +099 +068 188021 021 036 000 00
171730 2435N 08629W 6971 03168 0064 +099 +064 182022 022 036 001 00
171800 2433N 08628W 6971 03169 0065 +099 +060 179021 022 036 000 00
171830 2431N 08627W 6971 03168 0063 +101 +055 174021 022 037 000 00
171900 2430N 08626W 6971 03169 0064 +101 +054 173022 022 039 000 00
171930 2428N 08625W 6971 03168 0064 +101 +056 179021 022 037 000 00
172000 2426N 08625W 6971 03168 0068 +097 +060 184022 022 036 000 00
172030 2424N 08624W 6971 03169 0072 +093 +062 192024 025 038 000 00
172100 2423N 08623W 6971 03169 0072 +094 +065 191025 026 036 000 00
172130 2421N 08622W 6972 03167 0068 +097 +057 189025 025 035 000 00
172200 2419N 08621W 6972 03169 0071 +094 +067 195026 026 036 000 00
172230 2417N 08621W 6972 03167 0074 +091 +075 202026 027 036 000 00
172300 2415N 08620W 6972 03168 0071 +094 +069 202028 029 034 000 00
172330 2413N 08620W 6973 03167 0071 +093 +074 203033 035 036 000 00
172400 2412N 08619W 6970 03172 0076 +090 +082 209034 034 037 000 00
172430 2410N 08619W 6990 03151 0076 +091 //// 209037 039 037 000 01
172500 2408N 08618W 7122 02991 0081 +096 //// 209037 039 039 000 05
172530 2406N 08618W 7359 02719 0080 +114 +101 204037 038 037 000 00

Descending lower.

[TropicalSailor]

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43/history/20160831/1621Z/KMCF/KMCF/tracklog hit load page twice to get a full log
I believe it is still out there, just not reporting their speed, etc. And here is their plannted flight pattern

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

Well that stinks, we really may have to wait until an eye forms before it gets a name

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Again, do not take FlightAware to the bank. It's not accurate info.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[OntarioEggplant]

39 KT FL and consistent TS force SFMR

[TropicalSailor]

BINGO! Allow me to introduce the long awaited Hermine (IMHO)

[Aric Dunn]

I think they are just sampling the SE quad for the 2pm update this last set has plenty of TS Winds 39kt FL so far.. wont be surprised if they find higher than that.

[Stormcenter]

Lots of dry air on the west side of TD9.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[artist]

172230 2417N 08621W 6972 03167 0074 +091 +075 202026 027 036 000 00
172300 2415N 08620W 6972 03168 0071 +094 +069 202028 029 034 000 00
172330 2413N 08620W 6973 03167 0071 +093 +074 203033 035 036 000 00
172400 2412N 08619W 6970 03172 0076 +090 +082 209034 034 037 000 00
172430 2410N 08619W 6990 03151 0076 +091 //// 209037 039 037 000 01
172500 2408N 08618W 7122 02991 0081 +096 //// 209037 039 039 000 05
172530 2406N 08618W 7359 02719 0080 +114 +101 204037 038 037 000 00

from obs 10, showing the sfmr and flt lvl are pretty close at the end of the obs

I'm suspicious about those SFMR estimated surface winds when flight level winds are much lower, unless they are the outflow boundaries seen on visible satellite.

[NDG]

Finally stronger winds found at flight level.

[Blinhart]

With unflagged 41Kt SFMR do you think they will up this to a 40Kt TS in the next 20 minutes with a pressure around 1001?

[Aric Dunn]

I see little to no movement still. I see the convective mass on the south side shifting east maybe giving it the appearance of and east motion. . no need to speculate we have recon there now.

[otterlyspicey]

Lots of dry air on the west side of TD9.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

I was noticing that too. This thing just can't get the perfect set up no matter HOW LONG it tries. Two weeks and still can't find a more than mediocre atmosphere one way or another lol. Very frustrating.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Still have not hit the center. Center is lower than 1004mb I assume.