ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Lots of dry air on the west side of TD9.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

That is the visible, need to look at the water vapor loop to see and you can see that the air is getting a lot more moist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tropicwatch]

Strange place for a wind shift.

[NDG]

One thing to get out of the recon so far is that it is still not stacked, MLC still well SE of the .LLC

[CrazyC83]

I think they are just sampling the SE quad for the 2pm update this last set has plenty of TS Winds 39kt FL so far.. wont be surprised if they find higher than that.

I think it is enough for a 35 kt initial intensity, but with more data to come the intensity can be raised further in a TCU.

[Stormcenter]

Still looks dry to the west on water vapor.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Lots of dry air on the west side of TD9.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

That is the visible, need to look at the water vapor loop to see and you can see that the air is getting a lot more moist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[gatorcane]

I see little to no movement still. I see the convective mass on the south side shifting east maybe giving it the appearance of and east motion. . no need to speculate we have recon there now.

Yeah seems to be giving the appearance it may be trying to move NE but still can't detect a true movement.

By the way if it is really starting to move NE from where it is now, that would be well right (east) of the NHC track.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like another convective burst around the center is coming.

[CrazyC83]

With unflagged 41Kt SFMR do you think they will up this to a 40Kt TS in the next 20 minutes with a pressure around 1001?

I'd conservatively go with 35 kt for the advisory given the limited data. If higher numbers come in, go with a TCU around 3 pm.

[Blinhart]

Still looks dry to the west on water vapor.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Lots of dry air on the west side of TD9.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

That is the visible, need to look at the water vapor loop to see and you can see that the air is getting a lot more moist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

If this was any other system or time we would say there is no dry air to mess with it due to the black being there doesn't mean it is dry, the brown that is basically gone is disappearing quickly.

[ronjon]

Hey look, it's turning. Now the question is, how stacked is it? Finally looks tropical in my opinion.

Speed up for best effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Looks likes its started moving N-NE when sped up.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311735
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20160831
172600 2404N 08618W 7534 02521 0082 +127 +099 203040 041 038 000 00
172630 2402N 08618W 7865 02161 0088 +141 +120 208043 043 038 000 03
172700 2401N 08618W 8204 01803 0088 +164 +142 209044 045 038 000 03
172730 2359N 08618W 8389 01614 0091 +174 +157 209045 046 039 000 00
172800 2357N 08619W 8403 01597 0091 +176 +158 209045 046 040 000 00
172830 2355N 08619W 8403 01598 0091 +177 +156 208045 046 041 000 00
172900 2354N 08619W 8404 01598 0093 +177 +151 210045 045 040 000 03
172930 2352N 08620W 8407 01594 0093 +174 +157 209045 046 039 000 00
173000 2351N 08621W 8438 01565 0094 +178 +156 208045 046 036 001 00
173030 2350N 08622W 8421 01586 0097 +178 +137 207046 046 038 000 00
173100 2348N 08622W 8422 01582 0096 +178 +145 208044 045 039 001 00
173130 2347N 08622W 8392 01612 0099 +174 +149 207043 044 038 001 00
173200 2345N 08623W 8421 01587 0099 +179 +136 207045 045 040 000 03
173230 2344N 08624W 8400 01608 0097 +178 +135 207044 045 037 000 00
173300 2344N 08626W 8438 01566 0099 +176 +150 207044 045 037 000 03
173330 2346N 08628W 8461 01546 0100 +176 +155 205045 046 035 000 03
173400 2347N 08629W 8431 01575 0098 +174 +158 209046 047 036 000 00
173430 2349N 08630W 8421 01585 0096 +171 +169 211046 047 036 001 00
173500 2351N 08632W 8428 01576 0096 +174 +161 211045 046 039 000 00
173530 2352N 08633W 8408 01589 0094 +168 //// 214045 046 041 001 01

47 kt FL, 41 kt SFMR. Yep it's a storm.

[Extratropical94]

Now we're talkin

[Aric Dunn]

like I said sampling the SE quad.. its a 45kt storm center where I pegged it earlier looks fairly well stacked with a strong curved band wrapping all the way around. probably be near 50kts by the time recon leaves. still fairly stationary with only slight center shifting around do to convective bursts.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Strong enough for an upgrade yet?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... E_zoom.png

[TropicalSailor]

Looks like they'll shoot the center from the SE Quadrant. This may get us the highest winds I assume? They are just as tired of fooling with this as us and were determined to find that wind

[txwatcher91]

Recon just found 47kts FL winds and 41kt SFMR to the SE of the center.

[NDG]

Plenty of 45 knot winds at flight level for an upgrade.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Hey look, it's turning. Now the question is, how stacked is it? Finally looks tropical in my opinion.

Speed up for best effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Looks likes its started moving N-NE when sped up.

I see a South Jog then a bit east possibly heading north.

[gatorcane]

Hey look, it's turning. Now the question is, how stacked is it? Finally looks tropical in my opinion.

Speed up for best effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Looks likes its started moving N-NE when sped up.

Definitely an East component with the north motion, more like NE to me...

[RL3AO]

I'd expect an update statement from NHC making this a 40 kt TS anytime now.

EDIT: Lost track of time. Intermediate advisory due out any minute now.