ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Is it as big as the avn indicates? If so, a lot of people are gonna get soaked. All the way from Fl to NC if the track goes as predicted.

[GeneratorPower]

Strong enough for an upgrade yet?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/re ... E_zoom.png

Probably not. They'll wait and say the readings were contaminated.

[tigerz3030]

To my Jacksonville peeps. I am shocked that Duval county nor St Johns county have pulled the trigger on no school tomorrow. Tomorrow pm will be a big risk of tornadoes.

Can't believe I've been following this storm for a week now and still no landfall.

[chaser1]

I see little to no movement still. I see the convective mass on the south side shifting east maybe giving it the appearance of and east motion. . no need to speculate we have recon there now.

Yeah seems to be giving the appearance it may be trying to move NE but still can't detect a true movement.

By the way if it is really starting to move NE from where it is now, that would be well right (east) of the NHC track.

Was just thinking exactly the same thing. Plus, if you step back and look at the E.CONUS satellite loop, it appears that the expected trough is finally now digging south from the Great Lakes region (oddly a bit west from where the models were originally showing the retrograded energy dropping SW from the Canadian Maritimes though?). Right now I'd say that trough seems pretty far north to have already degraded the weak ridge north of the SE CONUS but if it has and a NE or NNE motion commences, than its really gonna be on the move in 12-24 hours from now because that trough is only now beginning to dig south. If it keeps on digging than that SSW flow is only going to increase in a hurry.

On the other hand, if we're NOT seeing movement quite yet, than i'd guess the longer it takes for the trough to dig south, the more of an eastward component might be the result once it does begin to move. Next 2-5 hours are going to be pretty interesting. My guess is that Storm Watches/Warnings might be extended south by a little bit later today.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is something new...Recon droped something that measures the ocean temp...
29.2 C surface temp
26 isotherm is at 31.5 meters

Product: Bathythermal Data (SOFX01 KWBC)
Date Profile Data was Processed: August 31st, 2016 at 17:39:39Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 09L in 2016 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
AXBT Buoy Drop (Airborne eXpendable Bathythermograph)

Profile Date: August 31st, 2016
Profile Time: 17:33:06Z

Profile Coordinates: 23.749N 86.45W
Profile Location: 300 statute miles (482 km) to the W (259°) from Key West, FL, USA.

AXBT Channel: 12

Sea Surface Temperature: 29.20°C (84.6°F)
Depth of 26°C Isotherm: 31.5 m (103 ft)
Deepest Depth of AXBT: 403.5 m (1,324 ft)

[Evil Jeremy]

To my Jacksonville peeps. I am shocked that Duval county nor St Johns county have pulled the trigger on no school tomorrow. Tomorrow pm will be a big risk of tornadoes.

Can't believe I've been following this storm for a week now and still no landfall.

They still have time to make that call. I'm sure those discussions are taking place right now.

[xcool22]

completely stationary imo

[OntarioEggplant]

This is definitely Hermine now

[Airboy]

Here is something new...Recon droped something that measures the ocean temp...
29.2 C surface temp
26 isotherm is at 31.5 meters

So that to, is that a new item they have?

[chaser1]

Oh, as an aside... so much for using this alternate site for following recon LOL. "Zombie NOAA flight" now onto new heading toward central Gulf

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N43RF

[AutoPenalti]

One thing is for sure, TD 9 sure is hogging up all the hot ocean heat content.

[benh316]

Hey look, it's turning. Now the question is, how stacked is it? Finally looks tropical in my opinion.

Speed up for best effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Looks likes its started moving N-NE when sped up.

Definitely an East component with the north motion, more like NE to me...

As centripetal force takes over on this system, the convection will tighten up and cause the cyclonic (counter-clockwise) motion pull the system east before it pulls it north. This system is so close to Florida that the east pull may just cause it to go over central and southern Florida rather than into the north. I am not saying this is definite, but I feel this is more probable than the models that previously agreed on a northern Florida landing. Just my opinion and I am not an expert - but with this system, we are all on the same playing level at this point

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311745
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20160831
173600 2354N 08634W 8419 01580 0092 +173 +162 211045 045 040 000 00
173630 2356N 08636W 8424 01575 0091 +172 +159 207043 044 041 000 00
173700 2357N 08637W 8420 01577 0089 +173 +160 207043 043 040 003 00
173730 2359N 08638W 8424 01572 0087 +174 +174 205043 046 042 005 00
173800 2401N 08640W 8427 01569 0085 +174 //// 207045 046 042 007 01
173830 2402N 08641W 8418 01577 0079 +179 //// 207043 045 046 018 01
173900 2404N 08642W 8399 01593 0080 +171 //// 212037 041 038 040 01
173930 2406N 08644W 8391 01601 0088 +158 //// 218040 040 036 021 01
174000 2407N 08645W 8454 01534 0081 +174 +164 208037 040 037 016 00
174030 2409N 08646W 8429 01562 0082 +173 +163 200041 044 043 024 00
174100 2411N 08648W 8431 01559 0080 +171 +171 205036 042 043 025 00
174130 2412N 08649W 8403 01587 0079 +168 //// 220033 035 036 024 01
174200 2414N 08650W 8407 01579 0078 +170 //// 224030 031 032 009 01
174230 2416N 08652W 8413 01574 0076 +171 //// 223025 026 031 006 01
174300 2417N 08653W 8406 01575 0070 +174 +170 206019 021 037 003 00
174330 2419N 08654W 8425 01557 0065 +184 +176 185014 019 038 009 00
174400 2420N 08656W 8416 01567 0070 +178 +173 195023 025 040 014 00
174430 2422N 08657W 8411 01569 0067 +179 +175 196026 027 044 016 00
174500 2424N 08658W 8432 01552 0064 +178 //// 204029 030 045 022 01
174530 2425N 08700W 8421 01560 0061 +185 //// 203027 029 041 004 01

46 kt FL, 46 kt SFMR this pass.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is something new...Recon droped something that measures the ocean temp...
29.2 C surface temp
26 isotherm is at 31.5 meters

So that to, is that a new item they have?

First time I've ever seen it on Google Earth plotting

[artist]

I basically use it to see when they take off. Then follow recon.

Oh, as an aside... so much for using this alternate site for following recon LOL. "Zombie NOAA flight" now onto new heading toward central Gulf

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N43RF

[WeatherEmperor]

NHC just announced upgrade to Hermine on their website.

[chris_fit]

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

[AutoPenalti]

WE HAVE HERMINE!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
100 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. Hermine
appears to be drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion is expected later today, and a turn
toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will
approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Hermine could be near hurricane strength by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane
conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area
beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 to 48 hours along
the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located
within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life
and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions,
including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet
Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet.
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through today, with
maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could
cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total
rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of
central and northern Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Coastal areas of Georgia and the
Carolinas are expected to receive storm total rainfall of 4 to 7
inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday
morning. These rains may cause flooding and flash flooding.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into
Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are
possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida
and southeast Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Steve]

Finally, huh?

It took a long time, but it was pretty clear it was eventually going to do something