ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Well at least the center they found is. '

Center decent amount east of the 11am forecast point

[chaser1]

Recon only finding 1005mb....

Because it's not really any more organized. Just had one hell of a convective burst.

Look above; NHC put out 1000mb for their 1:00pm Update

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Recon only finding 1005mb....

Because it's not really any more organized. Just had one hell of a convective burst.

NHC says 1000mb

[chaser1]

----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z Euro also shifted west to Apalachicola

[tarheelprogrammer]

Recon only finding 1005mb....

Because it's not really any more organized. Just had one hell of a convective burst.

NHC says 1000mb

Recon says different.

[chris_fit]

Yes, we know what NHC says - but NHC said that before recon got there... I think in this case Recon data trumps NHC in regards to pressure.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Because it's not really any more organized. Just had one hell of a convective burst.

NHC says 1000mb

Recon says different.

I'll go with the NHC

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311805
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20160831
175600 2456N 08730W 8424 01552 0049 +199 +164 250005 005 022 000 00
175630 2458N 08730W 8420 01556 0049 +200 +165 243004 004 024 000 00
175700 2500N 08731W 8421 01558 0051 +200 +164 239004 004 024 000 00
175730 2502N 08732W 8418 01560 0048 +202 +170 230003 003 024 000 00
175800 2503N 08733W 8421 01560 0049 +202 +169 245005 005 022 001 00
175830 2505N 08735W 8422 01554 0047 +203 +162 247006 007 019 000 00
175900 2506N 08736W 8420 01556 0048 +200 +163 235006 007 018 000 00
175930 2508N 08737W 8420 01555 0048 +200 +164 217005 005 019 000 00
180000 2509N 08739W 8420 01556 0048 +199 +165 216005 005 018 000 00
180030 2511N 08740W 8420 01556 0050 +196 +162 216005 005 018 000 00
180100 2512N 08742W 8419 01556 0050 +196 +164 222004 005 018 000 00
180130 2514N 08743W 8419 01556 0050 +195 +169 223004 005 018 000 00
180200 2515N 08744W 8420 01555 0051 +193 +171 209004 005 017 000 00
180230 2516N 08746W 8422 01553 0050 +195 +173 212003 004 017 000 00
180300 2517N 08748W 8422 01553 0049 +196 +172 211000 002 018 000 00
180330 2518N 08750W 8419 01555 0050 +192 +176 319002 002 017 000 03
180400 2520N 08752W 8423 01553 0051 +193 +178 001003 003 019 000 00
180430 2521N 08753W 8425 01551 0050 +196 +176 029003 003 019 000 00
180500 2522N 08755W 8422 01554 0052 +193 +178 046005 005 020 000 00
180530 2524N 08756W 8421 01555 0055 +187 +181 076005 005 018 000 00

Likely LLC (not a pressure center) at 25.3N 87.9W.

[tarheelprogrammer]

NHC says 1000mb

Recon says different.

I'll go with the NHC

To each their own but I am rolling with recon data.

[RL3AO]

It's probably in the 1002 to 1003 mb area. NOAA seems to have a extrapolated pressure bias.

[JtSmarts]

Does anyone think Earl 1998 might be analog? That storm strengthened all the way to 100mph but never developed an inner core, it ended making landfall as a minimal hurricane.

[ronjon]

What the heck is going on in the NE GOM today - heavy convection well removed from Hermine. Portions of Pinellas County already received over 6 inches or rain and its still coming down!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[OntarioEggplant]

What the heck is going on in the NE GOM today - heavy convection well removed from Hermine. Portions of Pinellas County already received over 6 inches or rain and its still coming down!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

Spiral rain bands from Hermine. The potential for this was evident yesterday when there was a huge cloud mass stretching from Hermine across Cuba. I've always though the rainfall predictions were underestimated because of this

[chaser1]

No worries, the plane is probably just measuring one of Hermine's OTHER 3 center's LOL (LLC, MLC, quasi-LMC, and perhaps some other eddy again spun off this road-wreck of a storm)

[tarheelprogrammer]

No worries, the plane is probably just measuring one of Hermine's OTHER 3 center's LOL (LLC, MLC, quasi-LMC, and perhaps some other eddy again spun off this road-wreck of a storm)

lol at least the thing got a name man come on. Give Hermine a break.

[chaser1]

What the heck is going on in the NE GOM today - heavy convection well removed from Hermine. Portions of Pinellas County already received over 6 inches or rain and its still coming down!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

Spiral rain bands from Hermine. The potential for this was evident yesterday when there was a huge cloud mass stretching from Hermine across Cuba. I've always though the rainfall predictions were underestimated because of this

Seems that regardless of final exact landfall, many counties along W. Florida south and north of Tampa, might win the "rainfall total prize" for sure. Just seems that a continual training of moisture will continue to impact that area for some time. Looking on the rainfall graphics on NHC's site, Orlando wont get close to what's coming down there.

[RL3AO]

What the heck is going on in the NE GOM today - heavy convection well removed from Hermine. Portions of Pinellas County already received over 6 inches or rain and its still coming down!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

Spiral rain bands from Hermine. The potential for this was evident yesterday when there was a huge cloud mass stretching from Hermine across Cuba. I've always though the rainfall predictions were underestimated because of this

Those aren't spiral bands. There is a trough/weakness (which is turning Hermine northeast), but the entire NE GOM is in a very favorable environment for thunderstorms and heavy rain. You can see a trough/convergence line setting up NE of Hermine plus there is a highly divergent upper air pattern too. Storms will continue to fire over the next couple days.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311815
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 15 20160831
180600 2525N 08758W 8424 01553 0054 +189 +185 066005 006 017 000 00
180630 2526N 08759W 8422 01554 0055 +187 +182 060004 004 018 000 00
180700 2528N 08801W 8422 01554 0053 +191 +178 043006 008 015 000 00
180730 2529N 08802W 8423 01554 0053 +192 +175 042009 010 016 000 00
180800 2531N 08804W 8423 01554 0052 +196 +170 041012 013 016 000 00
180830 2532N 08805W 8425 01554 0053 +196 +173 043012 013 015 000 00
180900 2533N 08807W 8424 01554 0053 +196 +173 040012 013 018 000 00
180930 2535N 08808W 8424 01554 0051 +200 +169 031012 013 019 000 00
181000 2536N 08810W 8424 01555 0051 +199 +180 028014 015 017 000 00
181030 2538N 08811W 8425 01555 0052 +203 +169 027015 015 017 000 00
181100 2539N 08813W 8424 01556 0050 +204 +169 030016 016 018 000 00
181130 2540N 08814W 8425 01556 0049 +208 +167 034016 016 019 000 00
181200 2541N 08816W 8424 01556 0046 +212 +161 036016 016 019 000 00
181230 2543N 08817W 8423 01557 0048 +211 +161 035016 016 019 000 00
181300 2544N 08819W 8424 01558 0049 +212 +155 030016 016 020 000 00
181330 2546N 08820W 8426 01557 0051 +210 +159 029016 016 017 000 00
181400 2547N 08822W 8427 01556 0053 +210 +152 030016 016 019 000 00
181430 2548N 08823W 8427 01556 0053 +212 +144 027017 017 018 001 00
181500 2550N 08825W 8424 01558 0052 +211 +150 020018 019 019 000 00
181530 2551N 08826W 8430 01556 0054 +211 +158 017018 018 019 000 00

In the convection-starved NW quad.

[NDG]

This is a very weird storm that's all I have to say it's taking its sweet time to get stackEd.