ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The pressure center is likely at the MLC, not the (new) LLC.

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting to see if it can squeeze another 10 mph out before landfall. Lol

[stormlover2013]

will be crazy if the center relocates farther south!!

[indianforever]

will be crazy if the center relocates farther south!!

if that happen I say the western gulf coast is not out of the woods yet...my opinion

[drezee]

I will call the contest after the recon is done

[chaser1]

I just realized that if you take the most recent sat pic and plot the coordinates, we're practically dealing with a storm just a sheared and disorganized as before. Based on those coordinates by NHC, the center is essentially barely on the edge of the convection and not far from being exposed

[JaxGator]

New storms and hot towers are beginning to fire near the center again and banding is still taking shape per Rainbow Loop.

[tropicwatch]

No Vortex message yet.

[StormHunter72]

Worst of the weather will be east and south of the center so track for tampabay area north is not important.

[Siker]

I see TD9 made up Hermind and became Hermine.

Finally.

[txwatcher91]

I just realized that if you take the most recent sat pic and plot the coordinates, we're practically dealing with a storm just a sheared and disorganized as before. Based on those coordinates by NHC, the center is essentially barely on the edge of the convection and not far from being exposed

No it's much more organized than it has been. You have outflow developing nicely, storms maintaining fairly well and the first signs of banding becoming evident. It's still not stacked completely and has a long ways to go but it definitely is getting much better.

[benh316]

It will be interesting to see if it can squeeze another 10 mph out before landfall. Lol

Centripetal force is a tricky thing - with such sporadic convection with this system, I believe that force is only now starting to have an effect on direction and intensity of HERMINE. And the thing about centripetal force and storm systems - it can rapidly accelerate speed and direction, which makes these storms almost impossible to forecast

My prediction - a more easterly turn before heading NE with a landfall somewhere near Sarasota/Bradenton. Call me crazy because I just may be!

[tropicwatch]

000
URNT12 KWBC 311824
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/18:03:05Z
B. 25 deg 18 min N
087 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 42 kt
E. 140 deg 88 nm
F. 204 deg 47 kt
G. 141 deg 100 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1534 m
J. 20 C / 1534 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. .01 / 5 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 141 / 100 NM 17:37:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 139 / 48 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 025 / 07 KTS

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311825
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 16 20160831
181600 2552N 08828W 8429 01557 0055 +209 +160 018018 018 019 000 00
181630 2554N 08829W 8430 01557 0057 +208 +157 023018 018 019 000 00
181700 2555N 08831W 8429 01558 0057 +206 +159 024018 019 021 000 00
181730 2556N 08832W 8428 01559 0059 +205 +160 024019 019 021 000 00
181800 2558N 08834W 8426 01563 0063 +202 +164 024019 019 020 000 00
181830 2559N 08835W 8424 01560 0061 +198 +173 024019 020 019 000 00
181900 2600N 08837W 8429 01558 0062 +200 +165 022019 020 020 000 00
181930 2602N 08838W 8430 01558 0062 +201 +164 020018 020 020 000 00
182000 2603N 08840W 8430 01558 0063 +201 +161 021018 018 021 000 00
182030 2604N 08841W 8430 01559 0064 +201 +161 027018 019 023 000 00
182100 2606N 08843W 8430 01559 0063 +200 +164 028019 019 022 000 00
182130 2607N 08844W 8431 01558 0064 +199 +166 027018 018 022 000 00
182200 2608N 08846W 8430 01560 0064 +200 +164 029019 019 023 000 00
182230 2610N 08847W 8430 01560 0064 +201 +166 034019 019 023 000 00
182300 2611N 08849W 8431 01560 0066 +199 +165 037019 019 022 000 00
182330 2612N 08850W 8430 01561 0068 +197 +166 036019 019 022 000 00
182400 2614N 08852W 8431 01561 0067 +198 +168 038020 020 021 000 00
182430 2615N 08853W 8430 01562 0068 +197 +168 039019 019 022 000 00
182500 2617N 08855W 8430 01562 0068 +198 +168 040017 018 022 000 00
182530 2618N 08856W 8430 01563 0068 +198 +168 039017 017 022 000 00

[caneman]

What the heck is going on in the NE GOM today - heavy convection well removed from Hermine. Portions of Pinellas County already received over 6 inches or rain and its still coming down!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

Spiral rain bands from Hermine. The potential for this was evident yesterday when there was a huge cloud mass stretching from Hermine across Cuba. I've always though the rainfall predictions were underestimated because of this

Seems that regardless of final exact landfall, many counties along W. Florida south and north of Tampa, might win the "rainfall total prize" for sure. Just seems that a continual training of moisture will continue to impact that area for some time. Looking on the rainfall graphics on NHC's site, Orlando wont get close to what's coming down there.

I wouldn't say points North of.Tampa. Tampa and west to include Clearwater and St. PETE already has around 8 inches of rain I'll bet.

[StarmanHDB]

So, our little storm system is all grown up. Should I start going through all of the "Call Bones" posts? Well, it may take a while, but it will be worth it. Not to sound mean, but it's time to sort the wheat from the chaff. Time to figure out who's who here. Time to sort out who has been consistently and scientifically logical concerning the cyclogenesis of TS Hermine from those who have been consistently wrong. Thank you Hermine. Because of your long odyssey I'll now be able to figure out which Storm2K posters are worth following.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 311824
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/18:03:05Z
B. 25 deg 18 min N
087 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 42 kt
E. 140 deg 88 nm
F. 204 deg 47 kt
G. 141 deg 100 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 18 C / 1534 m
J. 20 C / 1534 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. .01 / 5 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 141 / 100 NM 17:37:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 139 / 48 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 025 / 07 KTS

[alienstorm]

LLC and MLC still not aligned

[tolakram]

My guess was 1002 and 45, not too bad.

[chaser1]

New storms and hot towers are beginning to fire near the center again and banding is still taking shape per Rainbow Loop.

This is true. Still, seeing how the colder tops and what previously appears as a distinct band on its East quadrant start stretching Northeastward and pulling away, I would'nt really suggest that Hermine is all that much healthier than recent days. "Trying to get her act together", but its uncanny how much harder this storm is having to work just to align itself vertically. Once some northward or northeast motion begins, i'd guess it might work toward improving its vertical structure some.