ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Nice clear coc that the MLC has developed, lol.

[jasons2k]

I just want to point out that the term "hot tower" is being over-used and abused in this thread. They typically occur in an eyewall structure, and they must penetrate into the stratosphere. Please stop calling almost every convective burst a "hot tower". There is a difference.

[alienstorm]

Per vortex message (sucker eye)

[JaxGator]

I just want to point out that the term "hot tower" is being over-used and abused in this thread. They typically occur in an eyewall structure, and they must penetrate into the stratosphere. Please stop calling almost every convective burst a "hot tower". There is a difference.

Sorry for the error and thanks. Won't put that into future posts.

[CrazyC83]

LLC and MLC still not aligned

LLC is even farther north, around 25.3.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Massive convective burst at the center. About to go off again it appears. Should be positioned right around where the recon team found the LLC.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 311835
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20160831
182600 2619N 08858W 8430 01563 0070 +197 +168 041018 018 020 000 00
182630 2621N 08859W 8430 01563 0070 +197 +168 034017 017 021 000 00
182700 2622N 08901W 8430 01563 0069 +198 +166 031017 018 020 000 00
182730 2624N 08902W 8431 01563 0069 +198 +165 030017 018 019 000 00
182800 2625N 08904W 8431 01563 0071 +196 +162 035018 018 019 000 00
182830 2626N 08905W 8431 01564 0070 +199 +159 037018 019 020 000 00
182900 2628N 08907W 8431 01563 0072 +196 +166 037020 021 019 000 00
182930 2629N 08908W 8431 01563 0073 +195 +167 033021 022 020 000 00
183000 2630N 08910W 8431 01563 0072 +195 +168 036022 022 021 000 00
183030 2632N 08911W 8431 01565 0074 +194 +171 035021 021 020 000 00
183100 2633N 08913W 8431 01564 0072 +201 +158 034021 021 020 000 03
183130 2632N 08915W 8431 01565 0073 +196 +173 032021 021 /// /// 03
183200 2629N 08915W 8431 01564 0072 +196 +177 032021 022 022 000 03
183230 2627N 08915W 8431 01564 0073 +195 +173 035021 021 022 000 00
183300 2625N 08915W 8431 01564 0072 +198 +164 031020 021 022 000 00
183330 2623N 08915W 8431 01564 0070 +200 +161 031020 020 023 000 00
183400 2621N 08915W 8431 01563 0069 +200 +164 033020 020 022 000 00
183430 2619N 08915W 8431 01561 0069 +199 +163 031022 022 021 000 00
183500 2617N 08915W 8431 01561 0068 +200 +164 034023 023 022 000 00
183530 2615N 08914W 8431 01562 0068 +198 +168 035022 023 021 000 00

[NDG]

LLC and MLC still not aligned

LLC is even farther north, around 25.3.

And the MLC is further north & east as well, IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

So, our little storm system is all grown up. Should I start going through all of the "Call Bones" posts? Well, it may take a while, but it will be worth it. Not to sound mean, but it's time to sort the wheat from the chaff. Time to figure out who's who here. Time to sort out who has been consistently and scientifically logical concerning the cyclogenesis of TS Hermine from those who have been consistently wrong. Thank you Hermine. Because of your long odyssey I'll now be able to figure out which Storm2K posters are worth following.

That doesn't work because I've seen someone be completely right about one storm and then dead wrong about the next one. It's best to just follow what the meteorologists say due to their professional background and training

[Wx_Warrior]

Port St. Joe landfall per 12z Euro

[psyclone]

the very heavy rain over the west coast is developing south so the most intense convective elements looks to be aiming at Sarasota and Manatee counties in the near term. Could be some flooding issues there.

[Nimbus]

Massive convective burst at the center. About to go off again it appears. Should be positioned right around where the recon team found the LLC.

The bursts are coming a little closer together next Vort message should be ~1000 to 1002 as per forecast.

[FLLurker32]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Massive convective burst at the center. About to go off again it appears. Should be positioned right around where the recon team found the LLC.

The bursts are coming a little closer together next Vort message should be ~1000 to 1002 as per forecast.

Yeah after recon is through it may. Might not be right from the start but by the time recon is done it may be at 1000mb or somewhere close. Thanks for pointing that out. I jumped the gun maybe.

[marionstorm]

Does anyone have a link to the satellite that takes pictures every minute?

[Nimbus]

Port St. Joe landfall per 12z Euro

50 knots at Bob Sikes cut.

[RL3AO]

Does anyone have a link to the satellite that takes pictures every minute?

That was only temporary as practice for goes r data. It ended a few days ago.

[benh316]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

I have reiterated this in several points and although I am no meteorologist - I did predict the storm stall / slow down when models did not. The models are seriously deficient in accounting for several factors, one of which I believe is the effect of centripetal force and another would be multiple vortices (this storm is accused of having this problem).

With centripetal force taking over, the previous (albeit extremely slow) path of movement will now be significantly affected and pulled eastward more - largely a result of cyclonic motion versus anti-cyclonic motion. The path of this storm really depends on which force is greater, but my money is on centripetal instead of its meeting with the trough as some have overstated. A landfall south of Tampa is very plausible if centripetal force pulls the system east and then north - IMO

[chris_fit]

Tampa area is literally getting flooded out - and we still have at least what, at least 36 hours of this?

[Category6]

The western side, particularly NW, of this storm are a mess. I still see dry air and a lack of convection there.

Is it just me, or is the storm already moving NE, albeit slowly? There certainly doesn't appear to be any further west movement of this storm. If so, will it trend on the south side of the current forecast cone?