ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bjm519209]

This is 100% conjecture, BUT am I the only one that thinks with the current projected changes to the NNE then NE this will have a hard time getting up as far north as Apalachicola going the current 2mph speed it is? It seems like the models may be having a hard time getting a handle on its movement. I'm not saying it'll hang a hard right and go into Tampa/ Bradenton, but it looks to me like it's certainly very possible it comes into the more southern side of the cone. Anyone? Bueller?

I agree with you here, but I do know in past once these storms get picked up and start moving NE it usually picks up forward speed as well. i guess wait and see.........

[benh316]

If its moving North its at walking speed...Trough wont catch it till later..this thing was still not at 25N. I have no confidence in the models right now in terms of timeframes

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Check out the RAMSDIS (SECTOR 2 &3) and the NASA version I linked here because you will see the center of circulation start to make a NW to SE "fish hook" pattern which tells me this thing will be pulled east. I am simply not a believer in the models currently (with this system at least) and the closer it gets to West Coast, the more confident I am the NHC is completely wrong in their storm path. Time will see if this changes

[tropicwatch]

If its moving North its at walking speed...Trough wont catch it till later..this thing was still not at 25N. I have no confidence in the models right now in terms of timeframes

Last center fix 25°18'N 87°49'W (

[Nimbus]

The outflow was being pulled northeast this morning kind of following the BAM deep but now its expanding NNE sort of along the forecast track. What will be there in 24 hours?

This morning



now

[maxx9512]

So am I losing it? Did this just kick it in Reverse? Forget the northward turn we'll just whip it around 180 Deg and go.

Lol I thought the same thing!

It sure looks like it has. Then again I've been staring at this stupid thing for over a week now so maybe it's just going round in circles, I don't know. I do know someone is gonna get wet or wetter when it finally get to wherever it's going.

[benh316]

The outflow was being pulled northeast this morning kind of following the BAM deep but now its expanding NNE sort of along the forecast track. What will be there in 24 hours?

Perhaps the real issue is no one can agree on what the true center of circulation is. I'm thinking the NHC is looking at the northern centripetal motion whereas some of us are staring at the southern. Perhaps two vortices orbiting one another? That would be neat to study!

[stormchazer]

In the case of Charley as mentioned earlier this is not the same setup. Charley was forecast to move much closer to the coast and be deflected Northeast by a trough. The proximity to the coast made the forecast tricky. The timing was slightly off and because Charley was close to the peninsula on its approach, it impacted further south aided further, by the angle of Floridas gulf coast. An adjustment in forecast similar to Charley here would not reflect as wide a miss on the forecast.

[Nederlander]

So am I losing it? Did this just kick it in Reverse? Forget the northward turn we'll just whip it around 180 Deg and go.

Lol I thought the same thing!

It sure looks like it has. Then again I've been staring at this stupid thing for over a week now so maybe it's just going round in circles, I don't know. I do know someone is gonna get wet or wetter when it finally get to wherever it's going.

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Aric Dunn]

looking good except the fact the mlc is not stacked.

[Aric Dunn]

Lol I thought the same thing!

It sure looks like it has. Then again I've been staring at this stupid thing for over a week now so maybe it's just going round in circles, I don't know. I do know someone is gonna get wet or wetter when it finally get to wherever it's going.

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

hope we are not follow that little hole in the convection thats nothing.. according to recon its barely moved. the convection is just building and rotating around its supposed to.

[BRweather]

It sure looks like it has. Then again I've been staring at this stupid thing for over a week now so maybe it's just going round in circles, I don't know. I do know someone is gonna get wet or wetter when it finally get to wherever it's going.

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

hope we are not follow that little hole in the convection thats nothing.. according to recon its barely moved. the convection is just building and rotating around its supposed to.

Account just activated haha.

But yes...I see no movement at all.

[Nederlander]

It sure looks like it has. Then again I've been staring at this stupid thing for over a week now so maybe it's just going round in circles, I don't know. I do know someone is gonna get wet or wetter when it finally get to wherever it's going.

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

hope we are not follow that little hole in the convection thats nothing..

Following the center which looks to me to be about 24.9N 86.0W

[SeGaBob]

I see the WPC raised their forecasted rainfall amounts up this way. I see the 18z models have clustered just about over me...maybe NHC does another shift west at 5pm?

[BRweather]

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

hope we are not follow that little hole in the convection thats nothing..

Following the center which looks to me to be about 24.9N 86.0W

You mean around 88W, right?

[tolakram]

Still looks very odd and linear.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[benh316]

Look at this 1km vis... speed the loop up some and you can clearly see it heading N and maybe NNE at the end of the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

hope we are not follow that little hole in the convection thats nothing.. according to recon its barely moved. the convection is just building and rotating around its supposed to.

Account just activated haha.

But yes...I see no movement at all.

I see slight movement NE if anything. I hope to GOD that the NHC is not following that "hole" as the center of rotation. In fact, the wobble of the convection is still proof this system has a more elliptical orbit and still has not properly formed with more even rotation. I believe that "wobble" will cause it to go further east than anticipated. If it was anti-cyclonic, the opposite would be true - west

[Evil Jeremy]

21 never popped up.

000
URNT15 KWBC 311925
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20160831
191600 2513N 08731W 8431 01538 0043 +197 +160 339004 004 017 000 00
191630 2514N 08729W 8431 01539 0045 +196 +153 006004 004 018 000 00
191700 2515N 08727W 8430 01541 0045 +196 +155 018004 005 017 000 03
191730 2515N 08724W 8431 01537 0046 +192 +154 334005 005 017 000 00
191800 2515N 08722W 8431 01540 0049 +190 +154 008003 003 016 000 00
191830 2515N 08720W 8431 01537 0049 +188 +155 317002 003 014 000 00
191900 2515N 08718W 8434 01536 0048 +189 +156 318002 003 015 000 00
191930 2516N 08716W 8430 01540 0047 +193 +156 353003 003 016 000 00
192000 2517N 08714W 8432 01537 0051 +186 +156 041003 003 016 000 00
192030 2518N 08712W 8430 01541 0054 +181 +158 089003 004 019 000 03
192100 2517N 08710W 8431 01539 0053 +184 +157 104005 006 017 000 00
192130 2516N 08708W 8432 01537 0053 +182 +155 124004 006 015 000 00
192200 2516N 08706W 8431 01538 0053 +182 +158 138002 003 017 000 00
192230 2516N 08704W 8431 01537 0051 +185 +160 140003 004 024 000 03
192300 2517N 08703W 8431 01542 0050 +183 //// 185008 013 035 001 01
192330 2519N 08701W 8402 01569 0050 +183 //// 173013 019 033 000 01
192400 2520N 08700W 8392 01581 0053 +180 //// 181016 018 039 001 01
192430 2521N 08658W 8431 01540 0053 +181 //// 186019 019 036 001 01
192500 2523N 08656W 8430 01544 0053 +184 +183 177018 019 035 000 00
192530 2524N 08655W 8432 01541 0052 +185 +175 168020 022 033 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

per recon just some slight wobbling around. this to the east .. now with convection building on the south side again it will probably get pulled back towards that convection again.

roughly
25.13N 087.31W

[Nederlander]

You mean around 88W, right?

Yes sorry.. Watching this for so long has made my eyes useless... About 87.5W

[FLLurker32]

That big mass of storms in the Tampa region are starting to make it up to my neck of the woods in Ocala. Clouds were moving west this morning. Now moving NE. Looks like when I go pick up my children in an hour and half I may need to swim. lol