ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6701 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:per recon just some slight wobbling around. this to the east .. now with convection building on the south side again it will probably get pulled back towards that convection again.

roughly
25.13N 087.31W


And that is my cue to stop wobble watching lol
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6702 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:41 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:per recon just some slight wobbling around. this to the east .. now with convection building on the south side again it will probably get pulled back towards that convection again.

roughly
25.13N 087.31W


And that is my cue to stop wobble watching lol


yeppers :) its just stationary essentially.. meandering around with each burst of convection.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6703 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:44 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 311935
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20160831
192600 2526N 08653W 8423 01548 0053 +184 +174 173017 018 033 000 00
192630 2527N 08652W 8430 01544 0056 +182 +178 161023 028 034 000 00
192700 2529N 08650W 8425 01549 0058 +181 +176 165026 028 034 000 00
192730 2530N 08648W 8430 01548 0061 +181 +175 171018 021 033 000 00
192800 2531N 08647W 8430 01548 0062 +180 +174 172015 015 030 000 00
192830 2533N 08645W 8424 01551 0062 +179 +176 176015 016 031 000 00
192900 2534N 08644W 8430 01549 0061 +183 +177 166022 024 032 000 00
192930 2536N 08642W 8426 01551 0061 +182 +177 163024 025 034 000 00
193000 2537N 08640W 8430 01549 0061 +183 +177 159022 023 033 000 00
193030 2539N 08639W 8429 01551 0064 +182 +165 158026 027 032 001 00
193100 2540N 08637W 8426 01554 0065 +182 +164 160027 027 028 002 00
193130 2542N 08636W 8430 01553 0068 +181 +169 163026 026 030 004 00
193200 2543N 08634W 8429 01555 0071 +178 +173 163025 025 030 005 00
193230 2544N 08632W 8430 01553 0069 +178 +174 165026 026 030 003 00
193300 2546N 08631W 8431 01552 0067 +181 +173 168026 028 030 003 00
193330 2547N 08629W 8430 01553 0062 +191 +173 170025 026 032 005 00
193400 2549N 08628W 8430 01554 0063 +191 +165 171026 028 034 007 00
193430 2550N 08626W 8429 01556 0063 +189 +167 160021 022 037 003 00
193500 2552N 08624W 8427 01555 0062 +189 +172 161026 028 033 001 00
193530 2553N 08623W 8431 01553 0067 +184 +179 162032 034 031 000 00
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6704 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:48 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 311945
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20160831
193600 2555N 08621W 8430 01557 0066 +188 +175 166029 030 030 000 00
193630 2556N 08620W 8430 01557 0065 +194 +162 168032 034 030 001 00
193700 2558N 08618W 8429 01559 0065 +198 +155 170029 030 030 000 00
193730 2559N 08616W 8431 01556 0063 +200 +151 170033 034 031 000 00
193800 2601N 08615W 8431 01556 0065 +198 +153 167031 031 029 001 00
193830 2602N 08613W 8427 01561 0069 +193 +152 171033 034 031 001 00
193900 2603N 08611W 8430 01559 0071 +191 +154 171031 032 029 001 00
193930 2605N 08610W 8430 01561 0074 +187 +159 173030 031 030 002 00
194000 2606N 08608W 8430 01562 0076 +185 +159 173028 029 031 000 00
194030 2608N 08606W 8429 01564 0077 +185 +153 170026 027 030 000 00
194100 2609N 08605W 8430 01563 0077 +186 +152 170027 028 027 000 00
194130 2611N 08603W 8431 01561 0077 +186 +152 173027 027 027 000 00
194200 2612N 08601W 8430 01563 0078 +186 +151 173026 026 027 000 00
194230 2614N 08600W 8430 01562 0079 +184 +151 174026 026 028 000 00
194300 2615N 08558W 8430 01563 0077 +187 +151 173025 026 028 000 00
194330 2617N 08556W 8431 01562 0075 +190 +150 178025 027 027 000 00
194400 2618N 08555W 8430 01565 0077 +191 +147 180027 027 027 000 00
194430 2620N 08553W 8430 01565 0079 +188 +147 180029 030 027 000 00
194500 2621N 08551W 8430 01565 0080 +187 +146 181030 031 026 000 00
194530 2623N 08550W 8430 01566 0080 +188 +148 183031 032 027 000 00
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6705 Postby willwill » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:50 pm

With over 30+ years of Tampa/bradenton experience. Which means my opinion is worthless.I expect this to hit cedar key or that little bend area, i think the NHC is being naive with their shifts to the west for the last 24 hours.I think they will be wrong. just my opinion
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6706 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:50 pm

its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6707 Postby shortwave » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:51 pm

now that the center is partially convection less you can really spot it easily
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6708 Postby JKingTampa » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:52 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


It can have it back. Here in St Petersburg I've already seen a car underwater and multiple manholes overflowing.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6709 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:per recon just some slight wobbling around. this to the east .. now with convection building on the south side again it will probably get pulled back towards that convection again.

roughly
25.13N 087.31W


Whoop. A "wobble" mention. :wink:

J/K Aric, but in reality, until this storm starts moving in one direction at 4 Kts+ I have no faith in the timing or intensity forecasts nor cone of death.

If anyone else wants some rain, we're happy to ship it to you, we've had more than enough the past 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6710 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:54 pm

JKingTampa wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


It can have it back. Here in St Petersburg I've already seen a car underwater and multiple manholes overflowing.

More very heavy rain is incoming from the south. it just keeps refiring and training.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6711 Postby JKingTampa » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:56 pm

psyclone wrote:
JKingTampa wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


It can have it back. Here in St Petersburg I've already seen a car underwater and multiple manholes overflowing.

More very heavy rain is incoming from the south. it just keeps refiring and training.


I know :/. I have a single drain in front of my house that is saving me. Once that fills up the water will be at my doorstep in no time and I'm starting to get a bit nervous.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6712 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


Even so, it's still developing banding features.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6713 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:57 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 311955
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 25 20160831
194600 2624N 08548W 8430 01567 0081 +187 +151 183032 033 027 000 00
194630 2626N 08546W 8430 01567 0082 +186 +153 181034 034 024 000 00
194700 2627N 08545W 8431 01567 0082 +188 +150 179034 035 023 001 00
194730 2629N 08543W 8431 01569 0083 +189 +149 177035 036 026 000 00
194800 2630N 08541W 8431 01569 0083 +190 +153 176037 037 025 000 00
194830 2632N 08540W 8430 01569 0084 +188 +156 175037 037 019 000 00
194900 2634N 08539W 8431 01568 0083 +186 +158 172036 036 020 001 03
194930 2636N 08540W 8431 01567 0084 +185 +161 171035 036 023 000 03
195000 2637N 08542W 8430 01570 0084 +188 +155 175037 038 022 000 00
195030 2637N 08545W 8430 01568 0080 +190 +155 177036 037 022 000 00
195100 2638N 08547W 8430 01566 0081 +186 +166 176034 034 023 000 00
195130 2639N 08549W 8431 01565 0080 +185 +166 175033 034 023 000 00
195200 2640N 08551W 8431 01564 0077 +188 +163 173033 033 023 000 00
195230 2640N 08553W 8430 01566 0077 +190 +166 172030 031 023 000 00
195300 2641N 08555W 8430 01564 0076 +191 +162 171029 030 023 000 00
195330 2642N 08558W 8430 01564 0082 +180 +162 170026 026 024 000 00
195400 2643N 08600W 8430 01565 0083 +178 +166 168023 024 021 000 00
195430 2643N 08602W 8431 01563 0084 +175 +166 166019 020 022 000 00
195500 2644N 08604W 8431 01563 0085 +174 +162 169020 020 022 000 00
195530 2645N 08606W 8431 01562 0084 +175 +162 168020 020 023 000 00
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6714 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:58 pm

This is starting to look pretty ugly on visible. More and more elongated looking
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6715 Postby GCANE » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:59 pm

ULL to the west is rapidly diminishing.

Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6716 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:01 pm

JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


Even so, it's still developing banding features.


dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.
Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6717 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...


Even so, it's still developing banding features.


dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.
[img]
https://s17.postimg.io/p9zms4acf/recon_ ... YCLONE.png[/img]


Yes, it would. Do you think the convection will persist or begin to weaken later today?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6718 Postby txwatcher91 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:06 pm

Keep in mind we are near dmin. In developing tropical storms they typically pulse up and down and you don't see a solid cdo develop until you get close to hurricane status. I expect the convection will intensify again tonight and we will see this take off once that occurs.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6719 Postby Category6 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:07 pm

Not looking too healthy on visible at the moment.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6720 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:07 pm

JaxGator wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
Even so, it's still developing banding features.


dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.
[img]
https://s17.postimg.io/p9zms4acf/recon_ ... YCLONE.png[/img]


Yes, it would. Do you think the convection will persist or begin to weaken later today?


I think we willget another large burst on the southern portion again since thats where all the convergence is.
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