ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

Port St. Joe landfall per 12z Euro

Euro has been horrible

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312005
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20160831
195600 2645N 08608W 8430 01564 0085 +176 +160 170019 019 025 000 00
195630 2646N 08610W 8430 01564 0085 +176 +160 167019 019 024 000 00
195700 2647N 08613W 8431 01562 0082 +178 +163 159019 019 025 000 00
195730 2648N 08615W 8431 01563 0081 +181 +164 155019 019 025 000 00
195800 2648N 08617W 8431 01562 0078 +185 +162 154019 020 024 001 00
195830 2649N 08619W 8431 01563 0077 +186 +161 152019 020 025 000 00
195900 2650N 08621W 8431 01562 0076 +188 +164 152019 020 024 000 00
195930 2651N 08623W 8431 01561 0073 +190 +166 151020 020 024 000 00
200000 2651N 08626W 8430 01562 0070 +195 +163 147019 020 025 000 00
200030 2652N 08628W 8431 01560 0072 +190 +171 149019 019 026 000 00
200100 2653N 08630W 8431 01561 0073 +190 +163 149020 020 024 000 00
200130 2654N 08632W 8431 01559 0072 +189 +171 153019 019 023 000 00
200200 2654N 08634W 8431 01560 0072 +187 +175 154020 021 023 000 00
200230 2655N 08636W 8431 01559 0072 +187 +181 157021 022 026 000 00
200300 2656N 08639W 8431 01560 0072 +187 +184 150021 022 029 000 00
200330 2657N 08641W 8433 01558 0073 +185 +181 151019 020 024 000 00
200400 2657N 08643W 8432 01557 0073 +185 +180 145019 020 019 000 00
200430 2658N 08645W 8432 01558 0072 +187 +180 142019 020 018 000 00
200500 2659N 08647W 8431 01559 0072 +186 +173 136019 019 021 000 00
200530 2659N 08650W 8431 01558 0072 +186 +170 131016 017 019 000 00

[otterlyspicey]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

[TropicalSailor]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

I think those in the west florida area already receiving too much rain would disagree with you.

[StormHunter72]

The outflow was being pulled northeast this morning kind of following the BAM deep but now its expanding NNE sort of along the forecast track. What will be there in 24 hours?

This morning



now

Track of "center" does not matter all weather is east.

[JaxGator]

dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.
[img]
https://s17.postimg.io/p9zms4acf/recon_ ... YCLONE.png[/img]

Yes, it would. Do you think the convection will persist or begin to weaken later today?

I think we willget another large burst on the southern portion again since thats where all the convergence is.

Thanks. I meant to say the convection by Tampa. Sorry.

[hurricaneCW]

She looks better organized to my eyes. A lot more banding, better more fanning outflow and a stronger LLC.

[wxsouth]

Even so, it's still developing banding features.

dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.
[img]
https://s17.postimg.io/p9zms4acf/recon_ ... YCLONE.png[/img]

Yes, it would. Do you think the convection will persist or begin to weaken later today?

Models are forecasting the 850mb trough to the northeast to weaken overnight which should allow the inflow to Hermine to increase. This is likely why most models only show slight strengthening for the next 6-12 hours.

[La Sirena]

Track of "center" does not matter all weather is east.

So do you anticipate this TS getting pulled more to the East than N/NE?

[StormTracker]

its losing a lot of inflow into that convection near tampa...

Even so, it's still developing banding features.

dont get me wrong its definitely slowly deepening.. but look at recon and the wind direction compared the center. where its at it should ne more ese to easterly but its nearly due south. its loosing that convergence to the NE. that will slow things up.

Hey Aric, long time. Your post is a perfect segue way to this question. What takes precedence over who goes where? The LLC or the MLC?

[Happy Pelican]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

I think those in the west florida area already receiving too much rain would disagree with you.

I know the Jersey shore is on alert. So many houses here are still under construction or up on cribbing from Sandy's recovery so.... Definetly not rooting for Hermine from a property owners POV. From a weather perspective maybe.

[lando]

Here at work in Wesley Chapel (Pasco County, north of Tampa)

Rain has been persistent all day, but nothing torrential and I do not see any standing water here at my dealership...pretty much just showering and light rain...

Any chance this thing tracks closer to Tampa then forecasted?

-Lando

[chaser1]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

C'mon fellow storm enthusiasts?! I go away for just 2 hours, and just look at what you've done! I told you Hermine is fragile but you just had to poke and prod her, did'nt you? Poor thing almost looks like a stalled November cold front now.

[Alyono]

the surface organization is still slightly worse than a June Slop storm.

Looks better on satellite. Looks like a T 3.0 to me. Just needs that surface organization in order to ramp up

[JaxGator]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

C'mon fellow storm enthusiasts?! I go away for just 2 hours, and just look at what you've done! I told you Hermine is fragile but you just had to poke and prod her, did'nt you? Poor thing almost looks like a stalled November cold front now.

It'll improve once the convection near Tampa fades and it looks good still to me.

[Dave C]

She looks better organized to my eyes. A lot more banding, better more fanning outflow and a stronger LLC.

Just seems to be stretched out, that feeder band to the east is helping it some.

[canefan]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

[psyclone]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

we're about to find out

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312015
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20160831
200600 2700N 08652W 8432 01556 0067 +193 +169 129017 017 018 000 00
200630 2701N 08654W 8431 01557 0066 +195 +165 131018 018 018 000 00
200700 2701N 08656W 8432 01557 0066 +196 +160 127019 019 020 000 00
200730 2702N 08658W 8430 01559 0067 +194 +165 121017 018 020 000 00
200800 2703N 08701W 8431 01557 0066 +193 +171 117016 017 018 000 00
200830 2704N 08703W 8431 01556 0066 +193 +172 117017 017 019 000 00
200900 2704N 08705W 8431 01557 0067 +188 +178 120015 016 017 000 00
200930 2705N 08707W 8432 01554 0065 +189 +187 117015 017 020 001 00
201000 2706N 08709W 8428 01561 0067 +189 //// 115016 016 024 007 01
201030 2706N 08712W 8428 01562 0066 +189 +185 116014 015 013 002 00
201100 2707N 08714W 8407 01579 0062 +194 +178 113015 016 016 000 00
201130 2708N 08716W 8413 01574 0061 +198 +173 111013 013 018 000 00
201200 2708N 08718W 8416 01571 0063 +197 +166 097014 014 018 000 00
201230 2709N 08721W 8417 01571 0062 +196 +169 092015 015 016 000 00
201300 2710N 08723W 8416 01570 0062 +195 +169 096017 018 015 000 00
201330 2711N 08725W 8411 01572 0063 +192 +169 099017 018 014 002 03
201400 2709N 08726W 8418 01571 0066 +193 +168 099018 018 014 005 03
201430 2707N 08727W 8416 01572 0064 +196 +164 095018 018 010 001 00
201500 2705N 08727W 8420 01570 0064 +196 +164 087017 017 012 000 00
201530 2703N 08728W 8420 01567 0058 +203 +158 080018 019 013 000 00

[Raebie]

I'm starting to worry about my daughter flying into Tampa Friday evening. Thought it would be through well before that.