ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

At first the storm looked stretched but I think it was a reaction to being pulled on by the trough and the change of direction. Seems to be drifting east currently.

[indianforever]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

NHC needs to put a warning from Brownsville to Miami

[Category6]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

why are they moving westward when it's been drifting NE most of the day?

[Raebie]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

NHC needs to put a warning from Brownsville to Miami

Um, that's a little extreme and won't happen.

[benh316]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

we're about to find out

These models are completely off base... seriously. Take a look here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Correct me if I am wrong but there are 2 rotations down there I see (one is faster I think), which would explain the elliptical orbit and lack of cohesion... additionally, this is wobbling east.. not west. Seriously crazy to think this is adjusting west by model

[Dave C]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

NHC needs to put a warning from Brownsville to Miami

That seems a little wide

[northjaxpro]

Hermine trying her best to align vertically. Still struggling to achieve that at this hour although convection trying to build again around the center again

[indianforever]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

NHC needs to put a warning from Brownsville to Miami

Um, that's a little extreme and won't happen.

I was being sarcastic....geez

[JKingTampa]

Just as she gets a name, she once again starts to look sad on satellite. Come on Hermine, you have it in ya, you can do this! Show us how beautiful you can be!

C'mon fellow storm enthusiasts?! I go away for just 2 hours, and just look at what you've done! I told you Hermine is fragile but you just had to poke and prod her, did'nt you? Poor thing almost looks like a stalled November cold front now.

It'll improve once the convection near Tampa fades and it looks good still to me.

WHENEVER it finally fades... It's still pumping out storms pretty decently. Hasn't stopped pouring since 3am.

[mobilebay]

There was a pretty big east jump between recon fixes

[Raebie]

NHC needs to put a warning from Brownsville to Miami

Um, that's a little extreme and won't happen.

I was being sarcastic....geez

Hard to tell sometimes in here.

[gulf701]

Well, I hope ERO is wrong as I am in Port St. Joe at the St. Joe Beach VFD Fire Station. Sure have been watching the models for unfavorable trend. We are under a TS Warning. County issued a State of Emergency at 10:30 am EDT. Pressure has began a slow decrease for about 4 hours.
If we can keep our internet up, our weather station is http://www.weatherlink.com/user/saintjoebeach/

[ronjon]

Hermine will not even be close to the 8 pm NHC position.

[northjaxpro]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

we're about to find out

Correct me if I am wrong but there are 2 rotations down there I see (one is faster I think), which would explain the elliptical orbit and lack of cohesion... additionally, this is wobbling east.. not west. Seriously crazy to think this is adjusting west by model

Looking at satellite imagery, I agree as to me it seems that Hermine is wobbling slighlty east as well to my untrained eye.

[SeGaBob]

Interesting discussion from NWS Charleston:

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While confidence continues to grow in the impacts of what is
currently Tropical Storm Hermine to our area, the location of the
impacts remains uncertain. The official Hermine track from NHC makes
landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida late Thursday night before
moving back off the Southeast Georgia coast during the day Friday
and continuing to the northeast through Friday night. However, the
latest suite of models is trending the storm a bit slower and
further inland, making pinning down the location of the strongest
winds and heaviest rainfall very challenging. The primary forecast
challenges are as follows:

Winds: As the storm moves over the Savannah River area, it will
merge with a strong cold front working south across the Carolinas.
Additionally, the closed upper level circulation will be absorbed
into a broad upper trough, resulting in increased wind speeds aloft
and shear. While this and the location of the storm over or near
land is normally cause for a TC to weaken, there is consensus
amongst models that the storm will either maintain strength or
strengthen during this time, most likely indicative of the storm
being driven by more barotropic processes. Given this, tropical storm
force (39 mph) or stronger winds have mainly been confined to the
coast as Hermine passes, with winds gradually tapering inland due to
the effects of friction. It should be noted that the loss of purely
tropical characteristics will have no bearing on the actual impacts
from the storm. If the storm track continues to shift inland, the
area that experience tropical storm force winds will likely
decrease.

Rainfall: The area that receives the greatest rainfall, and the
associated flash flood risk that comes with it, will depend largely
on the track of Hermine. The cyclone will bring deep tropical
moisture with it, and as it merges with the cold front over the area
models indicate that the heaviest precip will be found along the
northern quadrant of the storm where the front will provide very
focused lift. The precip gradient will be tight along the
northwestern portion of the storm as considerably drier air is
pulled into the circulation on the cool side of the front. These
characteristics make the precip forecast highly volatile, as small
shifts in the path of the storm can lead to significant QPF errors.
If the track trend continues to shift inland, the flooding threat
will shift inland accordingly.

Tornadoes: With 30 kt of more of 0-1 km shear, a conditionally
unstable airmass, and widespread convection expected in the
northeastern quadrant of the storm, the tornado risk with this storm
will be dependent of the track of the center. Based on the current
NHC forecast, the overall tornado risk will be low, though some
isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. However, the trend of the
latest guidance bringing the center of circulation further inland
would indicate an increasing threat for brief, mainly short track
tornadoes, especially for coastal areas Friday afternoon and
evening.

[benh316]

Hermine will not even be close to the 8 pm NHC position.

^^^THIS^^^^

I would like to say that I have never seen the NHC so out of touch with forecasting reality... but then again - I remember ERIKA from last year.

Oh how far we have fallen. Perhaps the scientists need to stop "owning" model systems so much and get back to meteorology. It's wobbling east - that's reality. How far it continues is anyone's GUESS

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312035
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20160831
202600 2621N 08735W 8418 01560 0056 +191 +161 080015 015 014 000 00
202630 2620N 08736W 8419 01559 0055 +191 +161 082015 015 014 000 00
202700 2618N 08736W 8420 01557 0052 +195 +159 078015 015 016 000 00
202730 2616N 08736W 8421 01556 0051 +195 +167 078016 016 015 000 00
202800 2614N 08737W 8418 01556 0047 +198 +165 076016 016 014 000 00
202830 2612N 08737W 8419 01555 0047 +197 +171 073017 017 015 000 00
202900 2610N 08737W 8417 01556 0047 +196 +169 073017 017 015 001 00
202930 2608N 08738W 8417 01556 0046 +196 +170 076015 016 017 000 00
203000 2606N 08738W 8419 01554 0048 +193 +178 074013 013 016 000 00
203030 2604N 08738W 8421 01551 0047 +194 +175 070012 013 014 000 00
203100 2602N 08739W 8420 01551 0046 +194 +174 062010 010 013 000 00
203130 2600N 08739W 8421 01551 0045 +194 +172 060009 010 014 000 00
203200 2558N 08739W 8416 01553 0044 +195 +176 069007 008 012 000 00
203230 2556N 08738W 8421 01549 0041 +198 +175 057006 006 013 000 00
203300 2554N 08738W 8414 01552 0038 +201 +172 046004 005 014 000 00
203330 2552N 08737W 8417 01550 0046 +189 +170 013005 005 016 000 00
203400 2550N 08736W 8420 01548 0042 +194 +166 038004 006 018 000 00
203430 2549N 08735W 8421 01545 0042 +191 +167 006004 006 015 000 00
203500 2548N 08733W 8417 01550 0044 +190 +164 009004 005 015 000 00
203530 2547N 08731W 8419 01546 0044 +189 +167 005005 006 014 002 03

Missing one set of obs. Pressure center does not appear to be collocated with wind center.

[txwatcher91]

Models are adjusting Westward... I wonder when NHC moves the cone and adjusts the warnings?

we're about to find out

These models are completely off base... seriously. Take a look here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Correct me if I am wrong but there are 2 rotations down there I see (one is faster I think), which would explain the elliptical orbit and lack of cohesion... additionally, this is wobbling east.. not west. Seriously crazy to think this is adjusting west by model

Yes the MLC and LLC aren't quite stacked yet which is why this appears to be wobbling around right now. This is well modeled especially by the higher resolution models. A general N to NE motion should commence tomorrow. Models are doing well and have zeroed in on the big bend region of FL as the most likely landfall zone.

[crimi481]

Feels like I am in the storm. lol. Heavy rain squalls from bands - Englewood, FL. Thunder. Power outages in SW. and central w. Central Florida starting
Will drain my pool now. lol

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[Evil Jeremy]

There was a pretty big east jump between recon fixes