ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

we're about to find out

These models are completely off base... seriously. Take a look here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Correct me if I am wrong but there are 2 rotations down there I see (one is faster I think), which would explain the elliptical orbit and lack of cohesion... additionally, this is wobbling east.. not west. Seriously crazy to think this is adjusting west by model

Yes the MLC and LLC aren't quite stacked yet which is why this appears to be wobbling around right now. This is well modeled especially by the higher resolution models. A general N to NE motion should commence tomorrow. Models are doing well and have zeroed in on the big bend region of FL as the most likely landfall zone.

And if those two rotations do not stack? I think it's scary to think central/south Florida is so unprepared because we are relying on a theory these rotations will converge and cause a northerly direction in such a short amount of time

[psyclone]

I've received 7" since our first dumping late yesterday afternoon. Clearing 10" should be effortless. Maybe more than 1'.

[Nederlander]

Hermine will not even be close to the 8 pm NHC position.

^^^THIS^^^^

I would like to say that I have never seen the NHC so out of touch with forecasting reality... but then again - I remember ERIKA from last year.

Oh how far we have fallen. Perhaps the scientists need to stop "owning" model systems so much and get back to meteorology. It's wobbling east - that's reality. How far it continues is anyone's GUESS

I would advise against any bashing of the NHC here... They are the best in the world at what they do and use all of the tools available to them to forecast..

[psyclone]

Extremely high PWATs look to linger over central florida through Saturday so more heavy rain after the system looks like a decent bet.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312045
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20160831
203600 2547N 08729W 8420 01549 0049 +184 +169 017005 006 015 000 00
203630 2547N 08727W 8421 01548 0049 +186 +157 048005 005 011 000 00
203700 2546N 08725W 8421 01545 0044 +189 +160 059007 007 013 000 00
203730 2545N 08723W 8418 01550 0046 +190 +162 073007 008 012 000 00
203800 2544N 08721W 8420 01546 0039 +198 +154 076008 009 014 002 00
203830 2542N 08721W 8418 01551 0042 +197 +156 082007 008 017 000 00
203900 2540N 08721W 8417 01552 0040 +202 +148 079008 008 016 000 00
203930 2538N 08720W 8420 01549 0047 +192 +153 073005 005 014 000 00
204000 2536N 08720W 8420 01550 0046 +193 +151 093005 005 014 000 00
204030 2534N 08720W 8420 01549 0043 +196 +150 088006 006 012 001 00
204100 2532N 08720W 8420 01549 0045 +192 +151 082005 007 013 000 00
204130 2530N 08720W 8418 01550 0045 +194 +148 074005 006 014 000 00
204200 2528N 08720W 8420 01548 0044 +197 +146 062005 006 015 000 00
204230 2526N 08720W 8420 01547 0043 +196 +148 062005 005 018 001 00
204300 2524N 08720W 8421 01548 0044 +195 +149 075007 008 025 000 00
204330 2522N 08720W 8420 01548 0043 +195 +157 067007 009 021 002 00
204400 2521N 08719W 8427 01539 0039 +197 +156 041010 011 023 001 03
204430 2519N 08718W 8415 01548 0040 +195 +157 034008 010 023 001 00
204500 2518N 08716W 8412 01550 0043 +189 +159 067006 006 023 000 00
204530 2516N 08715W 8422 01541 0041 +191 +160 089003 004 025 000 03

[jasons2k]

They also have access to data and packages we don't...

[JKingTampa]

Extremely high PWATs look to linger over central florida through Saturday so more heavy rain after the system looks like a decent bet.

How long do you think these bands are gonna keep up?
I see no end in sight as of right now, personally.

[caneman]

I'm assuming the models aren't initialized correctly then? Since the east jump between recon fixes?

[Airboy]

The poor recon is struggling with the LLC

[txwatcher91]

These models are completely off base... seriously. Take a look here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Correct me if I am wrong but there are 2 rotations down there I see (one is faster I think), which would explain the elliptical orbit and lack of cohesion... additionally, this is wobbling east.. not west. Seriously crazy to think this is adjusting west by model

Yes the MLC and LLC aren't quite stacked yet which is why this appears to be wobbling around right now. This is well modeled especially by the higher resolution models. A general N to NE motion should commence tomorrow. Models are doing well and have zeroed in on the big bend region of FL as the most likely landfall zone.

And if those two rotations do not stack? I think it's scary to think central/south Florida is so unprepared because we are relying on a theory these rotations will converge and cause a northerly direction in such a short amount of time

Even if they do not stack once the trough begins to exert the influence on this system it will pull everything NE. Sure it may wobble some right now while it is meandering but this is expected and predicted quite well by models. Everything is going according to plan and the NHC knows exactly what they're doing.

[psyclone]

Extremely high PWATs look to linger over central florida through Saturday so more heavy rain after the system looks like a decent bet.

How long do you think these bands are gonna keep up?
I see no end in sight as of right now, personally.

as long as there's convergence and juicy air...until further notice

[benh316]

Hermine will not even be close to the 8 pm NHC position.

^^^THIS^^^^

I would like to say that I have never seen the NHC so out of touch with forecasting reality... but then again - I remember ERIKA from last year.

Oh how far we have fallen. Perhaps the scientists need to stop "owning" model systems so much and get back to meteorology. It's wobbling east - that's reality. How far it continues is anyone's GUESS

I would advise against any bashing of the NHC here... They are the best in the world at what they do and use all of the tools available to them to forecast..

I don't mistrust the experts at the NHC - I mistrust their methodologies and reliance on flawed modeling. I also don't want to pretend to comprehend the complex nuances of their model systems between US and Europe either.. I just know that it is impossible to discern the effect of a dynamic variable on a dynamic and non-uniform system. The models probably work very well in the best developed systems - HERMINE is not that

It also must be nice to be in a business where you can constantly change the model based on every new geospatial location of a system even if the model was entirely off base previously. See - I work in a field where my degree of error cannot be off by 500 miles

Again, not to jab - but we trust way too much in modeling and this system is proving there are issues that need addressing

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding the center just south of the previous pass. still just bouncing around with the convection. no turn yet. models will adjust should already be moving at least 5kts.

[Nikki]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.5°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[Alyono]

Just as I say its getting better organize,d recon manages to find this more trough-like

Maybe the models showing no development late last week were really on to something

[drezee]

I would put a pretty large bet that the MLC and LLC just aligned at about 2030z...I think we are ready for launch

[northjaxpro]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.5°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

Looks as if the turn has commenced and the forward speed is picking up as well, now moving at 7mph.

[txwatcher91]

It's worth mentioning that while the overall convective pattern is still disorganized the outflow structure is looking much better. Also a nice burst of convection near or over the LLC/MLC.

[benh316]

4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.5°N 87.4°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

Looks as if the turn has commenced and the forward speed is picking up as well, now moving at 7mph.

I feel this will be a great study to see if the wobble effect or "launch" of a more aligned rotation will win the day as far as model projections.

Looking at the SAT however, it still appears at least in some respect that alignment has not yet happened...

[willwill]

hahah they did move it west again. ok i'm done