ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

Will one of the Mods please open a ATL:Hermine-Opinions thread? That way if I need to seek out this type of mindless blather, I'll know where to find it. Quite annoying to slam into this on the DISCUSSION thread.

Mindless blather? Why? Am I not free to express my opinion on a discussion thread especially when it is trying to discern trajectory of a storm?

What is mindless about it? The fact it does not align exactly with NHC? Pretentiousness won't prove my theory of an east wobble wrong especially when others share the skepticism.

Frankly, what you said shows a complete lack of understanding of how meteorology works. Yes everyone has been frustrated with the models for this storm...but that's an artifact of how complex Hermine's environment has been. Meteorological predictions can never be perfect simply due to the fact that they are based in chaos theory which we do not have a good understanding of yet. It does not matter what you do in your career field as it does not compare to the challenges and background conditions that underly meteorological forecasting.

Too many people want a perfect black and white answer when there is not or never will be one. Understand the gray area first and why that gray area exists. Then understand why all forecasts are of the best, educated, scientific guess variety.

I really don't want to debate chaos theory and guesswork on this forum as I would rather stick to the topic at hand - there are several individuals on this forum and perhaps more outside here who believe this storm system is continuing a slightly more eastward track which would affect a lot of people sooner and who may not be prepared. That's a serious issue.

While the NHC is fairly reliable on many generalities, it is evident they have a difficult time building consensus on these storms that have less consolidation.

Your comments are appreciated, but really underline the necessity for skepticism

[Aric Dunn]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

unfortuantely not what recon shows.. just keep waiting another 6 to 12 hours then it will be on its way. should push back landfall time to midday friday.

Aric, you're seriously depressing me. Seriously though I'm concerned that any shift south and east will have major repercussions for the 0600Z models. Recon is doing a fine job and I'm not concerned with the cone of death shift to the west; I'm more worried that there will be a sudden east and south shift on short notice. I think the NHC is right to be concerned about rapid intensification in the last 12-24 hours before landfall.

its possible though I dont think its going to shift that far south. maybe cedar key area rather than Apalachicola

[OntarioEggplant]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

It is very, very unlikely you will receive landfall from Hermine. The forecast track did shift west slightly to Apalachicola (with the forecast cone ending near Destin) which the storm is moving NNE towards. There is currently no evidence that it will move in your direction. The most you will experience is some higher surf and *possibly* outer rain bands based on current available data.

[SolarBear73]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

I am not a pro, but based on the NHC, professional meteorologists, and the observed data available, you and yours should be safe. Unless something completely bizzare happens activity should stay well east of your location. Even as the storm's anticipated track inches slightly west, the worst of the rain and winds are on the eastern side of its center. I certainly cannot guarantee your clearance, but as a serious observer of this storm's developments, I want to reassure that, at this time, you should not be in danger. Please continue to monitor the storm by following the NHC and its advisories. If you have continued concerns also consult your local fire and police stations for help. Of course. I do not know your particular situation or location, but the storm doesn't seem to be projected to affect your general area

[txwatcher91]

How much longer will recon stay in Hermine? Maybe one more pass before heading home? Also when is the next recon scheduled for? Outflow continues to expand and the convective burst as well.

[xcool22]

lets end this for the moment.. there has been NO NE or N motion its been relatively stationary with many multiple center relocation and now a south reformation. when it starts to move ( likely about 6 to 8 or more hours) you will know it.

yep I agree

[caneman]

Tampa radar shows training in full progress. I am looking forward to seeing the rainfall totals for the Tampa area from Hermine. Goes to show even far from the center, you can have major effects from these systems. This rainfall could even surpass the rainfall totals from the system last year that dumped so much rain over West-Central Florida.

9.5" reported in Largo today. It is thumping.

That's exactly where I live. Near Indian Rocks beach.

[Blinhart]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

It is very, very unlikely you will receive landfall from Hermine. The forecast track did shift west slightly to Apalachicola (with the forecast cone ending near Destin) which the storm is moving NNE towards. There is currently no evidence that it will move in your direction. The most you will experience is some higher surf and *possibly* outer rain bands based on current available data.

I don't know in the last 24 hours landfall has moved about 150 miles further West.

[JaxGator]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 17m17 minutes ago

Strong evidence of #Hermine's center reforming under the convection on latest pass, flying at the 850mb level.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrN6Xg9UAAEAGvS.jpg:large

[Dean4Storms]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

[wxman57]

I very rarely post but here it is. I am confused. I keep hearing projected landfall is moving west. Then hear she is moving ne. I have two young boys I need to keep safe and am not physically healthy. I live in coastal ms almost on AL line. I have seen many storms go in areas not predicted. I just need to know we are safe here. If there is any great track change when would I know? I live on the Gulf and will get trapped in my neighborhood and unable to get us out if there is much of a storm surge. Someone please put my mind at ease. I have been here for a long time and really don't usually get freaked out but since my very recent heart attack I need to be where I can at least get to a hospital.

The NHC is talking about adjusting the track a little west of Apalachicola, FL, not to Pensacola or Mobile. There is very little chance that Hermine will track northward toward Ocean Springs. Westerly winds are building down into the Gulf in the mid to upper levels. These winds will steer Hermine northeast as it tracks northward tonight and tomorrow.

[Frank2]

lets end this for the moment.. there has been NO NE or N motion its been relatively stationary with many multiple center relocation and now a south reformation. when it starts to move ( likely about 6 to 8 or more hours) you will know it.

Aric Dunn, the NHC official forecast has it moving NNE at 7 mph and it's obvious by satellite - why make a statement that is incorrect?

[bevgo]

Thanks to all who responded to me. I am and always look to the resources mentioned. There are a few people here that I really trust and a response from them helped. I am grandma and not mom but I will have the boys because I am the only adult to watch or evacuate them due to parents jobs. I have them some stuff ready in case we have to leave in a hurry and have my supplies ready here in case we get stuck here. I do have family way north of here to go to. I really need to just stop the worry and trust that we are safe.

[JaxGator]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

Yes, me too, the structure is improving as well. That's good news for the Big Bend and for folks northeast of there but I'll keep watching just in case, as Jax is still under a TS watch.

[SeGaBob]

Forecast as of now...(assuming the track doesn't change, which it will)


Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely...mainly after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers...mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph...becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn, the NHC official forecast has it moving NNE at 7 mph - why make a statement that is incorrect?

that is without recon data.. so its quite correct.

[caneman]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

In my opinion not likely. East of Appalacha cola to Cedar Key.

[caneman]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

Yes, me too, the structure is improving as well. That's good news for the Big Bend and for folks northeast of there but I'll keep watching just in case, as Jax is still under a TS watch.

How do you figure good news. Are you actually serious? I live in Pinellas county and Largo has had 9.5 inches of rain with much more on the way. This in so far isn't a wind event it's more of a flooding event and storm surge event. Meaning east of the,storm is going to get the wor st of it not where an llc might come across.

[benh316]

I think NHC has this analyzed about right. I can clearly see the circulation center and it appears that the N/NE header is correct. The Navy Satellite loop Gatorcane posted is very telling with that.

unfortuantely not what recon shows.. just keep waiting another 6 to 12 hours then it will be on its way. should push back landfall time to midday friday.

Aric, you're seriously depressing me. Seriously though I'm concerned that any shift south and east will have major repercussions for the 0600Z models. Recon is doing a fine job and I'm not concerned with the cone of death shift to the west; I'm more worried that there will be a sudden east and south shift on short notice. I think the NHC is right to be concerned about rapid intensification in the last 12-24 hours before landfall.

Thanks for bringing the east-shift concerns back on track. I think some folks get so wrapped up in being right about something, they forget the inherent danger and realities of these storms. Being in south Florida, it seriously concerns me that residents south of Hillsborough including their governments, have not been placed on alert or under the State of Emergency. We are literally relying on the best science guesswork that this storms rotations will converge and move the system north by east and not simply wobbling east while heading north. I hope they are right because as this post pointed out - a lack of change in east wobble could be a huge problem for people south

I want to apologize for attaching the modeling of this system because my intent was not to attack the NHC itself.. I simply wanted to point out the potential for flaws in the modeling - specific to HERMINE.

[jdjaguar]

It is stacked now finally I believe....Should begin a steady deepening from here based on forecasts. They did extend TS Warnings Westward to Destin along with the Hurricane Watch in relation to the models trending more westward with a landfall in the Panhandle NOT the Big Bend!

Yes, me too, the structure is improving as well. That's good news for the Big Bend and for folks northeast of there but I'll keep watching just in case, as Jax is still under a TS watch.

JaxGator
I replaced my aging generator today.
Just in case.