ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6901 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:28 pm

the large squall about to come ashore is in various spots showing rotation and now 65kt winds. heading towards St pete beach.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6902 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:29 pm

Yes don't confuse convective expansion and rotation with actual storm motion.

Also of course recon is going to have a connectivity blip right before I have to leave work.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6903 Postby xcool22 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:29 pm

tolakram wrote:Another trick when looking at the visible is to speed it up and then put your mouse cursor over where the storms are firing in these blobs (tops a little higher than the surrounding ouytflow). You will find that you barely have to move your mouse yet the entire cloud top seems to be expanding or drifting e/ne. THis tells me the lower level center isn't moving much.


thank you I been said that ;)
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6904 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:30 pm

It seems the more I loop it the more it turns towards the ENE.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6905 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:31 pm

OntarioEggplant wrote:Yes don't confuse convective expansion and rotation with actual storm motion.

Also of course recon is going to have a connectivity blip right before I have to leave work.


like clock work lol
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6906 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:31 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 312215
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 39 20160831
220600 2449N 08642W 8406 01557 0045 +179 +177 202042 043 041 007 00
220630 2450N 08644W 8417 01545 0039 +187 +176 194042 042 042 006 00
220700 2452N 08645W 8407 01553 0038 +185 +178 195043 044 044 004 00
220730 2453N 08647W 8410 01548 0038 +186 +178 197044 046 044 004 00
220800 2455N 08649W 8407 01549 0034 +183 +179 189043 046 043 006 00
220830 2456N 08651W 8414 01543 0033 +189 +179 183040 042 045 004 03
220900 2457N 08653W 8399 01559 0033 +183 +182 183043 043 050 018 00
220930 2457N 08655W 8405 01542 0025 +181 //// 179042 045 046 023 01
221000 2457N 08657W 8431 01517 0018 +195 +183 170032 037 055 020 00
221030 2457N 08659W 8399 01548 0010 +201 +188 172024 028 058 027 00
221100 2457N 08701W 8403 01541 0013 +191 +189 190018 024 054 023 00
221130 2457N 08703W 8408 01532 0015 +186 //// 246012 015 042 019 01
221200 2457N 08705W 8415 01530 0019 +188 +180 333003 005 027 003 00
221230 2457N 08708W 8411 01535 0018 +196 +166 323008 010 024 002 03
221300 2458N 08709W 8420 01530 0017 +207 +157 338008 009 021 000 00
221330 2500N 08711W 8410 01539 0015 +206 +158 334007 008 019 001 00
221400 2501N 08712W 8416 01537 0018 +208 +155 334006 007 016 000 00
221430 2503N 08714W 8416 01537 0022 +204 +153 353004 005 014 000 00
221500 2504N 08715W 8411 01542 0022 +203 +154 016002 003 012 000 00
221530 2505N 08717W 8415 01540 0024 +203 +154 026004 006 012 000 00

46 kt FL, 58 kt SFMR. Pressure 1001mb.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6907 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:32 pm

Dare I say the LLC will be exposed soon if shear continues to increase.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6908 Postby BRweather » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:32 pm

I am so confused why people are using the satellite for the movement when we have a plane in the storm with real-time data.

Use the data when we have the chance. Won't be easy when they leave
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6909 Postby OntarioEggplant » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:32 pm

1001 MB extrap. 58 KT SFMR lol
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6910 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:33 pm

Based on the latest data, I would estimate the intensity at 50 kt, giving some weight towards the SFMR.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6911 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:34 pm

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6912 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:34 pm

Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.


Edit: Labor day weekend :double:
Very tire, I need a good 12 hrs of sleep lol.
Last edited by NDG on Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6913 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:34 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 312225
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 40 20160831
221600 2507N 08718W 8414 01542 0025 +201 +155 021006 006 011 000 00
221630 2508N 08720W 8413 01542 0026 +199 +155 025007 007 011 000 00
221700 2509N 08721W 8414 01542 0026 +202 +143 016008 008 011 000 00
221730 2511N 08723W 8413 01544 0028 +201 +140 009008 009 013 000 00
221800 2512N 08724W 8416 01541 0029 +200 +139 012009 010 010 000 00
221830 2514N 08726W 8413 01544 0030 +198 +140 012011 011 010 000 00
221900 2515N 08727W 8414 01545 0034 +192 +149 006010 011 009 000 00
221930 2516N 08729W 8413 01544 0032 +194 +152 012011 011 010 000 00
222000 2518N 08730W 8415 01544 0029 +201 +145 021011 011 008 000 00
222030 2519N 08732W 8415 01544 0029 +202 +146 025010 011 008 000 00
222100 2520N 08733W 8412 01546 0028 +202 +149 021010 010 011 000 00
222130 2522N 08735W 8411 01547 0028 +203 +152 015009 009 010 000 00
222200 2523N 08736W 8414 01546 0025 +209 +145 026009 009 010 000 00
222230 2524N 08738W 8415 01546 0027 +208 +150 025009 009 010 000 00
222300 2526N 08739W 8415 01546 0030 +202 +155 026010 010 011 000 00
222330 2527N 08741W 8415 01546 0031 +203 +151 028009 010 008 000 00
222400 2528N 08742W 8415 01546 0031 +203 +149 033008 010 008 001 00
222430 2530N 08744W 8412 01548 0029 +207 +144 042009 010 006 000 00
222500 2531N 08745W 8411 01550 0031 +203 +146 048010 011 006 000 00
222530 2533N 08747W 8414 01549 0034 +202 +148 047011 011 007 000 00
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6914 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:35 pm

tigerz3030 wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:JaxGator
I replaced my aging generator today.
Just in case.


That's good that you're prepared. My family and I have been getting gas for our generator, got some food and secured loose items.



Jaxgator, are we not going to get as much now in our area/St Augustine?


Pretty much what northjaxpro said. Despite the lack of pressure falls so far, recon has been measuring higher winds. Flight level of course but still they're around 60mph (per pro-Met John Gaughan). And as I'm typing this, I see recon has found a lower pressure too.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6915 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the latest data, I would estimate the intensity at 50 kt, giving some weight towards the SFMR.


If the NHC chooses to up the intensity that much right now (at least half a day quicker than expected to reach that strength), I'd have to think they would pull the trigger on the hurricane warning.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6916 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:36 pm

NDG wrote:Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.


It's Labor Day :P
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6917 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:37 pm

wind switch was at 24.48n 86.40 W barely moving..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6918 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:37 pm

chris_fit wrote:
NDG wrote:Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.


It's Labor Day :P


Wow, these 4-5 hrs of sleep at night is getting to me lol.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#6919 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:38 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 312235
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 41 20160831
222600 2534N 08748W 8413 01550 0034 +201 +152 050012 012 008 000 00
222630 2535N 08750W 8409 01551 0032 +202 +158 038012 012 008 000 00
222700 2537N 08751W 8412 01551 0031 +204 +165 032013 013 010 001 00
222730 2538N 08753W 8414 01551 0030 +208 +163 030013 014 009 000 00
222800 2540N 08755W 8414 01551 0030 +209 +161 032014 014 008 000 00
222830 2541N 08756W 8416 01549 0031 +207 +164 029013 013 011 001 00
222900 2542N 08758W 8415 01549 0033 +201 +174 032012 012 011 000 00
222930 2544N 08759W 8416 01549 0033 +202 +173 036012 013 009 001 00
223000 2545N 08800W 8413 01551 0034 +201 +170 037012 013 008 000 00
223030 2546N 08802W 8410 01553 0034 +201 +169 031014 015 011 000 00
223100 2548N 08803W 8415 01552 0036 +200 +170 030014 014 009 000 00
223130 2549N 08805W 8414 01552 0036 +201 +168 028012 013 010 000 00
223200 2551N 08806W 8415 01552 0036 +203 +165 028013 013 010 000 00
223230 2552N 08808W 8415 01553 0037 +198 +183 029013 014 009 000 00
223300 2553N 08810W 8415 01553 0038 +197 +178 024012 013 009 000 00
223330 2555N 08811W 8415 01553 0040 +195 +175 028012 012 008 001 00
223400 2556N 08813W 8415 01554 0043 +192 +177 036012 013 008 000 00
223430 2557N 08814W 8415 01555 0045 +189 +180 041014 014 009 000 00
223500 2559N 08816W 8414 01557 0043 +192 +184 037013 014 010 000 00
223530 2600N 08817W 8416 01555 0045 +195 +173 041015 016 012 000 00

NW quad is still feeble.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6920 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:38 pm

NDG wrote:Hermine is going to mess up a lot of Memorial weekend's plan from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic, I bet a lot people in the mid Atlantic had no idea until today.

Here's to hoping it's not around that long. hahaha.
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