ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I concur. I've been thinking Cedar Key the whole time as well. If this east shift verifies as a trend, it'd be darn nice if they would put St. Pete and Clearwater under watches.

I know right, I'd like to know the reasoning.

Warning, OK, fine, maybe no warning.... but not even a watch???? These are the places getting the worst of it right now. Tropical Storm Conditions ARE occurring. right. now. (check the latest band on radar)

Well, it has become apparent to me in the past few hours that Hermine has done a better job in stacking itself which has allowed it to strengthen so far this evening. One other huge factor in which I have been watchjing closely is that the dry air over the Central GOM has yet to really get near the cyclone. One thing I thought other than shear from the trough was that dry air may get entrained into the sytem upon its approach to the peninsula. So far, that has been kept at bay to this juncture.

This may still happen as the the next 12-24 hours we should have an idea on how that aspoect shakes out, but for right now, Hermine is having the about the best conditions she will have prior to landfall.

I will say that if the more east movement continues for the next few hours, NHC I feel will extend the watches/warnings just a bit south, as with the projected track as well. just my thoughts.

[RL3AO]

First time looking this evening. Looks quite a bit better on satellite and the trend from recon to move the low east is worrying. Seems to be getting much more focused.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 312241
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/22:11:47Z
B. 24 deg 57 min N
087 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1444 m
D. 58 kt
E. 096 deg 6 nm
F. 200 deg 52 kt
G. 123 deg 44 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C / 1570 m
J. 21 C / 1535 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 32
MAX FL WIND 52 KT 123 / 44 NM 22:00:40Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 07 KTS

[NDG]

After the recon is gone this evening this buoy should give us some good information, Hermine will be tracking by really close to it tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[toad strangler]

Models are tools for the forecaster. Guides for helping them (pro or amateur) prepare a forecast. No matter the consensus! It's classic nowcast time for FL.

[benh316]

I concur. I've been thinking Cedar Key the whole time as well. If this east shift verifies as a trend, it'd be darn nice if they would put St. Pete and Clearwater under watches.

I know right, I'd like to know the reasoning.

Warning, OK, fine, maybe no warning.... but not even a watch???? These are the places getting the worst of it right now. Tropical Storm Conditions ARE occurring. right. now. (check the latest band on radar)

Well, it has become apparent to me in the past few hours that Hermine has done a better job in stacking itself which has allowed it to strengthen so far this evening. One other huge factor in which I have been watchjing closely is that the dry air over the Central GOM has yet to really get near the cyclone. One thing I thought other than shear from the trough was that dry air may get entrained into the sytem upon its approach to the peninsula. So far, that has been kept at bay to this juncture.

This may still happen as the the next 12-24 hours we should have an idea on how that aspoect shakes out, but for right now, Hermine is having the about the best conditions she will have prior to landfall.

I will say that if the more east movement continues for the next few hours, NHC I feel will extend the watches/warnings just a bit south, as with the projected track as well. just my thoughts.

Is there a singular defined center at this point? I'm curious as to what we will be considered point for landfall... Especially in a system where much of the power is south and east

[BRweather]

After the recon is gone this evening this buoy should give us some good information, Hermine will be tracking by really close to it tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Well the air force won't be too far behind. Won't be a big gap

[northjaxpro]

Also, remember, the most potentially severe impacts from Hermine will be on its east and southeast quadrant, which will be felt in a wide area from the center. This worries me with the potential of small mesoscale tornadoes that can spin up without warning in landfalling tropical cyclones. I am hoping Hermine gets caught by the trough and get out of here because if it is a slow mover, well, I don't even want to think about flood potential if Hermine takes it time Heaven forbid.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312329
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 06 20160831
232000 2933N 08930W 6664 03564 0100 +081 -063 057011 013 020 000 03
232030 2930N 08929W 6668 03563 0097 +085 -073 051008 009 024 000 03
232100 2928N 08928W 6670 03561 0098 +085 -076 052008 008 023 000 00
232130 2925N 08927W 6670 03563 0097 +084 -071 064009 010 024 000 03
232200 2923N 08926W 6667 03545 0092 +080 -064 065010 010 /// /// 03
232230 2920N 08925W 6670 03547 0093 +080 -069 061009 010 /// /// 03
232300 2918N 08924W 6670 03560 0098 +080 -069 056009 009 /// /// 03
232330 2915N 08923W 6668 03555 0089 +081 -069 047009 009 /// /// 03
232400 2912N 08922W 6667 03531 0073 +085 -083 046007 009 /// /// 03
232430 2910N 08921W 6670 03530 0067 +087 -083 046006 007 /// /// 03
232500 2907N 08920W 6668 03562 0089 +088 -085 047006 007 /// /// 03
232530 2905N 08919W 6668 03560 0086 +089 -076 042006 006 030 000 03
232600 2902N 08918W 6668 03576 0088 +085 -013 056005 006 /// /// 03
232630 2900N 08917W 6670 03567 0090 +090 -045 072005 005 029 001 03
232700 2857N 08916W 6670 03564 0092 +086 -022 062005 006 031 000 00
232730 2854N 08915W 6670 03563 0090 +085 -020 068006 006 031 000 00
232800 2852N 08914W 6669 03563 0088 +086 -005 072006 006 029 000 00
232830 2849N 08913W 6668 03560 0090 +085 -009 049006 007 028 000 00
232900 2847N 08912W 6670 03565 0092 +085 -003 048006 007 028 000 00
232930 2844N 08911W 6670 03562 0089 +086 -005 046007 007 028 000 03
$$
;

AF307 heading to the storm.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312325
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 46 20160831
231600 2517N 08658W 8400 01547 0013 +200 +180 140024 026 043 000 00
231630 2517N 08656W 8413 01535 0011 +203 +178 148029 031 050 000 00
231700 2517N 08654W 8393 01558 0015 +202 +172 157032 033 052 001 00
231730 2517N 08652W 8410 01539 0017 +198 +176 160029 032 049 001 00
231800 2517N 08650W 8401 01550 0023 +192 +177 170033 034 049 002 00
231830 2517N 08648W 8407 01543 0024 +190 +178 178034 034 049 002 00
231900 2517N 08646W 8398 01558 0030 +185 +179 181041 045 046 003 00
231930 2517N 08643W 8407 01547 0036 +180 +179 180049 051 042 003 00
232000 2517N 08641W 8399 01562 0036 +183 +174 182052 054 041 006 00
232030 2517N 08639W 8420 01538 0035 +189 +168 180051 056 039 007 00
232100 2517N 08637W 8401 01561 0039 +185 +163 174048 049 041 007 00
232130 2517N 08635W 8392 01570 0043 +181 +163 176046 047 040 006 00
232200 2517N 08633W 8392 01571 0046 +178 +165 179044 045 037 010 00
232230 2517N 08631W 8420 01547 0045 +182 +167 181042 043 034 009 00
232300 2517N 08629W 8410 01553 0045 +182 +169 186042 043 034 009 00
232330 2517N 08627W 8399 01568 0050 +180 +167 182037 038 036 010 00
232400 2517N 08625W 8401 01566 0052 +176 +170 183041 042 035 008 00
232430 2517N 08622W 8403 01566 0054 +173 +172 185046 048 034 007 00
232500 2517N 08620W 8407 01559 0055 +174 +167 187046 047 034 003 00
232530 2517N 08618W 8408 01558 0057 +173 +166 185048 048 033 001 00

56 kt FL, 52 kt SFMR.

[sponger]

I really am anxious to hear the NHC's take. I think a slight adjustment east with a wait and see for 11.

[stormreader]

We have been fooled before but recon and visual confirms East! Lets see how long it lasts! Remember Charley? A wobble turned out to be a hook and we did not recognize it for 2 hours. Remember Jeanne, model garbage in garbage out. We did not have the NOAA flights critical for model input so anything is possible, but this is not a wobble. This is movement!

Latest aircraft pressure and wind center was north of previous fix. Still wobbling about.

yeah very erratic at the moment. models are slowly bringing it ashore later and later into friday.

Aric, it seems a little unusual for a "trough pick up" to be so indecisive. Usually there is no doubt. The storm feels the influence and moves briskly along with the continental flow. It gathers momentum as it moves. But even in the beginning it makes a decisive and consistent move (none of the wobbling which is more associated with storms being steered by the weaker tropical flow). But Hermine's response to this trough leaves something to be desired.

[Steve]

Well, it looks as if this new convective blowup on imagery near the center really is looking good. This explains why Recon is finding a slowly strengthening cyclone. I am not liking this trend at all. Hermine is perculating folks.

Couldn't agree more. This is seriously becoming a more and more dangerous situation - and now it's night time. Some folks may end up waking up realizing they are in the middle of a disaster they thought was blowing past them - once again pun is intended.

If this east track continues for 4-6 more hours, I would be seriously concerned.. Let alone the rapidly increasing vorticity

EDIT - to clarify - the east motion still appears to be more wobble in nature. Again, for how long...

For sure some people would be ill prepared, but at the end of the day the landfall point isn't as important with weaker systems. I'd be more worried if I was there if the storm stayed west of there when it comes up NE in the Gulf. That's probably what it's going to do anyway bringing some of the worst weather down the coast and east of the center. Like psyclone and caneman down that way have reiterated, it was mostly going to be about the rainfall on the peninsula. It would be a different story if it was a Cat 2 or 3 though (surge, winds, etc.)

[AutoPenalti]

SW Florida could actually be in trouble now.

[tropicwatch]

After the recon is gone this evening this buoy should give us some good information, Hermine will be tracking by really close to it tonight.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Well the air force won't be too far behind. Won't be a big gap

They are already on the way.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 312335
NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE HDOB 47 20160831
232600 2517N 08616W 8391 01582 0061 +170 +151 185048 048 033 000 00
232630 2517N 08614W 8414 01559 0061 +171 +154 184046 047 036 000 00
232700 2517N 08612W 8384 01591 0062 +172 +154 185047 048 035 000 00
232730 2517N 08609W 8393 01583 0066 +172 +147 186045 046 033 000 00
232800 2517N 08607W 8394 01583 0067 +173 +146 188045 046 032 000 00
232830 2518N 08605W 8403 01577 0068 +176 +135 186047 048 030 000 00
232900 2518N 08603W 8386 01595 0071 +173 +139 185048 049 029 000 00
232930 2518N 08601W 8406 01574 0070 +174 +143 188049 049 026 000 00
233000 2518N 08559W 8407 01573 0072 +173 +149 191047 047 024 000 00
233030 2518N 08556W 8407 01574 0070 +175 +152 189046 046 022 000 00
233100 2518N 08554W 8407 01573 0069 +175 +150 190046 046 021 000 00
233130 2518N 08552W 8406 01578 0072 +177 +145 192047 047 023 000 00
233200 2518N 08550W 8406 01579 0072 +178 +145 194047 047 024 000 00
233230 2519N 08547W 8406 01580 0075 +175 +156 190046 046 024 000 00
233300 2519N 08545W 8406 01582 0076 +175 +157 189045 046 025 000 00
233330 2520N 08543W 8407 01581 0076 +176 +158 192046 047 025 000 00
233400 2520N 08541W 8406 01583 0077 +179 +146 191046 046 024 000 00
233430 2521N 08538W 8406 01585 0079 +180 +142 191045 045 023 000 00
233500 2522N 08536W 8405 01588 0080 +180 +144 192045 045 022 000 00
233530 2522N 08534W 8406 01588 0082 +179 +147 190043 043 020 000 00

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Also, remember, the most potentially severe impacts from Hermine will be on its east and southeast quadrant, which will be felt in a wide area from the center. This worries me with the potential of small mesoscale tornadoes that can spin up without warning in landfalling tropical cyclones. I am hoping Hermin gets caught by the trough and get out of here because if it is a slow mover, well, I don't even want to think about flood potential if Hermine takes it time Heaven forbid.

I have been in Florida for 12 years I have always feared this but Tampa always gets spared. I watched Barry..Wilma..Alberto..countless storms blow by and miss us ..Colin was ominous. This town is more vulnerable to rain than wind so the center does not matter we can flood like badly if this hangs out to long.

Also not to mention this will be very bad for our ZIKA problem

[SeGaBob]

50 mph at 8

[northjaxpro]

That has already happened there. They have been hit by heavy squalls along the West Central FL coast. The Clearwater area has had flooding earlier today

[BRweather]