ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

[benh316]

Was that a 60-64 knot register? Jeez this is picking up fast.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 312342
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 31/23:12:48Z
B. 25 deg 16 min N
087 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1443 m
D. 15 kt
E. 234 deg 14 nm
F. 307 deg 12 kt
G. 227 deg 11 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 20 C / 1546 m
J. 22 C / 1545 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. .01 / 4 nm
P. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE OB 40
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 55 KT 087 / 28 NM 23:20:25Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 52 KT 088 / 15 NM 23:17:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 125 / 08 KTS
CONVECTION SE OF CENTER

[RL3AO]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks.

We've got people talking about SW Florida now. Theres a scary chance that we're seeing the LLC move underneath the MLC with this eastward wobble. Thankfully 3 hour recon fixes are beginning tonight. Thanks USAF!

[pgoss11]

AF is up and might be able to put an end to the Sqaubling.

Thank God! We need a Tropical Banter thread for all the wobble watchers that think the storm is coming to their area and not where NHC has forecast.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I will say that it is great having Recon in the system right now as the system is slowly intensifying. We are watching the intensification trend unfold literally.

[Steve]

:uarrow: That has already happened there. They have been hit by heavy squalls along the West Central FL coast. The Clearwater area has had flooding earlier today

Exactly. They're in what's the 'worst' on land so far. Largo apparently has the highest total or did up til recently. It's ripe and should continue to pump ***loads of moisture. Y'all drive safe. And you too jax. I know you've been through plenty of storms. Hopefully it accelerates out of there and leaves y'all with a great rest of the holiday weekend.

[NDG]

56 flight level winds on the last pass with 1001mb pressure, Hermine is as strong as the GFS has it at landfall, 12z Euro intensity during landfall looks good to me if not a little lower.

[AutoPenalti]

Oh He!! No. It's moved a full degree east and dropped south some.,Throw some doggone watches up for Pinellas!!

??? No it hasn't?

[kevin mathis]

My thoughts alone, but I see main path for Hermine to be thru the Big Bend, say from Steinhatchee to Cedar Key/Homasassa area. Time will tell. Bottom line is...I don't think Hermine really cares where the GFS and that skinny black line says it is supposed to go!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Was that a 60-64 knot register? Jeez this is picking up fast.

There is still something very wrong with the structure of this storm when you see nothing more then a breeze in 3 out of 4 quadrants as per recon.

[sponger]

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 6 feet surge!

[northjaxpro]

I love coming on Storm2K whenever possible, but I would like to remind people visiting the site or our regular members that there is a Chatroom where people can go to for more banter. I am not sure if the moderators have it up running right now, but I have tried to go on there and no one never thinks to go over there to chat. But, I just wanted to throw tht out there if there is any interest for it while monitoring Hermine.

[gatorcane]

That sure looks like a pretty big wobble to the east if you ask me if the center is truly under that latest convection blowup:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[caneman]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

[xcool22]

loop around loop around .I see no nne move

not no pro or I need glass lol
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[ronjon]

Oh He!! No. It's moved a full degree east and dropped south some.,Throw some doggone watches up for Pinellas!!

Yeah keeps relocating eastward...we may be back to a cedar key landfall again soon!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 312350
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 08 20160831
234000 2754N 08901W 6668 03562 0071 +094 +032 047019 020 /// /// 03
234030 2756N 08903W 6674 03550 0062 +102 -008 053018 019 029 000 03
234100 2758N 08903W 6675 03542 0056 +102 -007 055015 017 027 001 03
234130 2800N 08903W 6670 03554 0056 +099 +011 056015 016 030 000 00
234200 2802N 08903W 6668 03553 0056 +097 +024 054013 015 030 000 03
234230 2804N 08902W 6670 03552 0059 +096 +037 058012 013 030 000 03
234300 2805N 08900W 6667 03552 0059 +095 +038 056010 011 /// /// 03
234330 2805N 08858W 6672 03546 0057 +095 +036 044009 010 /// /// 03
234400 2803N 08856W 6667 03555 0058 +095 +036 042010 011 026 000 00
234430 2802N 08855W 6667 03550 0052 +099 +031 034011 012 027 000 00
234500 2759N 08854W 6672 03546 0059 +095 +042 037013 013 027 000 00
234530 2757N 08854W 6668 03548 0058 +095 +039 037012 013 027 000 00
234600 2755N 08853W 6667 03553 0062 +095 +033 032014 015 026 000 03
234630 2753N 08854W 6668 03554 0062 +095 +030 039017 017 /// /// 03
234700 2753N 08857W 6668 03551 0061 +095 +027 043017 018 /// /// 03
234730 2755N 08858W 6668 03552 0060 +095 +026 051016 017 026 000 03
234800 2757N 08859W 6670 03550 0054 +098 +033 052016 017 028 000 00
234830 2759N 08859W 6669 03553 0052 +098 +037 054016 017 029 000 00
234900 2801N 08900W 6668 03548 0058 +095 +036 056015 016 026 001 00
234930 2803N 08900W 6674 03547 0057 +097 +038 058014 015 025 001 03
$$
;

AF plane. (NOAA is heading home)

[caneman]

Oh He!! No. It's moved a full degree east and dropped south some.,Throw some doggone watches up for Pinellas!!

??? No it hasn't?

No meaning I didn't want to believe it was moving east and not happy that it has.

[N2FSU]

Would y'all quit freaking out about the Slight East movement. Aric already told y'all, and prob others, that its likely a cyclonic loop...Sure could it dance all over the place...YES! I think we have a pretty good agreement this is prob not going to hit further south than the big bend of FL and further west than the western panhandle.

Thanks delta. Next thing you know people in Key West will say its going to hit them.