ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

its fluid dynamics 101. a cyclonic loop ( which is what happened and still going on) in a ideal experiment happen in part to differences in density and pressure( which is what our atmosphere is) when you add angular momentum to the mix you multiple vorts and "erratic" motion. though its not actually erratic and can be calculated given enough information. then you add in temperature ( thermodynamics) along external energy such as in this case varying wind with height you get various non linear mathematical equations that models try to forecast based on data. however human brains are capable of discerning this motion without computers learning the dynamics you can reconize the process and save yourself a lot of "wobble watching" if you would like more info i'll gladly assist.

[deltadog03]

I see someone deleted their post. I find it hard to believe that a 60 to 80 mile swing east is a loop!

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

Ha!! You will not find anywhere that I said or implied it would hit Tampa. I've said Cedar Key all along. So if you're implying -removed-, you're sadly mistaken. Ive been a member of this board for at least 15 years, my account was reset recently and thaTS why it doesn't show cat. 5. So, I take offense to your implication. If I knew you I'd gladly put a steak dinner on the line for Cedar Key or closer than Appalachacila.

I'm not saying you were saying Tampa at all. Cedar key could be it. Either way, I honestly don't care where it goes. I was making a general statement. Sorry if that offended you. Not my intention.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That east shift is worrying. Nobody from citrus to Sarasota is prepared...I'll keeping an eye on this for northern movement..although it's 8 hours late

[TampaCE]

I live close to the bay in St Pete and the commute home from work this afternoon was pretty hairy on some of the neighborhood streets. Thankfully the tide has gone out and most of the localized street flooding has subsided here for the time being. I do believe that the local mets underestimated the amount of rainfall we were going to see from this system.

Thankfully the local schools and municipal offices are closed tomorrow, it should be a long day of watching water rise in the street and up the driveway. I've really enjoyed following this system for the last week to 10 days or so but I'm ready for it to pick up some speed and get out of the gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

The jog east does not appear to be a loop. A loop does not normally extend 80 miles or more out. What I've been saying may possibly coming to fruition as far as path and strength.

cyclonic loops can be very large all depending on the dynamics of it.

[benh316]

I don't think it would be prudent to advise people in Pinellas to not be prepared for storm conditions. Although there is no watch or warning, there is a large circulation and it is elongated, so there could be high winds in bands farther from the center. Regarding the VDM's being located eastward, it is something that happened. Those folks were making an observation and thinking that maybe they should be more prepared. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

We have to remember Governor Scott released an executive order this morning regarding 42 counties identified in his State of Emergency declaration... Pinellas and Hillsborough should be on there. I also know the new EM director for Pasco and he is one of the best and would certainly assist neighboring counties any time.

With this said - I will stick to my assertion / prediction this storm will hit much further south - like Tampa or Sarasota directly. If I am wrong then I will happily admit it. All I ask is that those of us with such wild and speculative theories be given at least a little due process before passing judgement. Thanks

[Frank P]

Maybe a little off line, but those who are so adamant about their forecast, and want to bet with someone, just make a bet that the loser must donate 50 bucks to Storm2K, then if they lose post their confirmation payment followup... That's what Chaser1 and I did earlier in the week when we had a friendly disagreement ... and we both donated! Its all for a great cause, then Storm2K wins. After all the site IS providing all the pro mets expertise along with some pretty good amateur mets with detailed info, analysis, links and entertainment..... back to the storm I still call 99L, looks to me that the NHC has somewhat confidence in the track, albeit somewhat delayed... intensity is anyone's guess..

[toad strangler]

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

its fluid dynamics 101. a cyclonic loop ( which is what happened and still going on) in a ideal experiment happen in part to differences in density and pressure( which is what our atmosphere is) when you add angular momentum to the mix you multiple vorts and "erratic" motion. though its not actually erratic and can be calculated given enough information. then you add in temperature ( thermodynamics) along external energy such as in this case varying wind with height you get various non linear mathematical equations that models try to forecast based on data. however human brains are capable of discerning this motion without computers learning the dynamics you can reconize the process and save yourself a lot of "wobble watching" if you would like more info i'll gladly assist.

These kinds of cyclonic movement can be a huge deal right before landfall in certain scenarios IRT to storm surge, highest winds from the eyewall, etc. Out in the wide open not so much.

[deltadog03]

I like the area near or just east of Apalachicola.
Sorry had to edit, I can't spell. Lol

[willwill]

I've also said cedar key all along, but NHC keeps shifting it west, watch at 11 they say alabama... I live in a flood zone on a lake in land o lakes., i sure as hell don't want it to come here, but it just seems like it's a CK storm

[Aric Dunn]

Even if it is a movement, there is nothing saying it will sustain that...again, this stuff happens when the lows are trying to stop dancing around each other and stack. It might not have any bearing on landfall.....This is NOT going to hit Tampa or Clear Water Directly.

Ha!! You will not find anywhere that I said or implied it would hit Tampa. I've said Cedar Key all along. So if you're implying -removed-, you're sadly mistaken. Ive been a member of this board for at least 15 years, my account was reset recently and thaTS why it doesn't show cat. 5. So, I take offense to your implication. If I knew you I'd gladly put a steak dinner on the line for Cedar Key or closer than Appalachacila.

I'm not saying you were saying Tampa at all. Cedar key could be it. Either way, I honestly don't care where it goes. I was making a general statement. Sorry if that offended you. Not my intention.

to be fair ( not saying it could be near tampa) but the trough is supposed to weaken tonight and if it does not induce the forward motion things could change. until it starts that forward motion dont let guard down. Especially since most of the heavy winds and rain will be affecting the west central coast.

[Aric Dunn]

I like the area eat or just east of Apalachicola.

i definitely see a east shift for 00z given its current location and motion. not tampa east though. cedar key is looking pretty good.

[Noles2016]

I like the area eat or just east of Apalachicola.

Gee, thanks, delta.

Posted from area "just east of Apalachicola".

[stormreader]

Ha!! You will not find anywhere that I said or implied it would hit Tampa. I've said Cedar Key all along. So if you're implying -removed-, you're sadly mistaken. Ive been a member of this board for at least 15 years, my account was reset recently and thaTS why it doesn't show cat. 5. So, I take offense to your implication. If I knew you I'd gladly put a steak dinner on the line for Cedar Key or closer than Appalachacila.

I'm not saying you were saying Tampa at all. Cedar key could be it. Either way, I honestly don't care where it goes. I was making a general statement. Sorry if that offended you. Not my intention.

to be fair ( not saying it could be near tampa) but the trough is supposed to weaken tonight and if it does not induce the forward motion things could change. until it starts that forward motion dont let guard down. Especially since most of the heavy winds and rain will be affecting the west central coast.

Yes. The storm has not yet been picked up by the trough. Should have happened by now. Feel like it's possible the storm could be left lingering for awhile in the SE Gulf. Models don't show it. But if the model forecast is to pan out, Hermine needs to begin a decisive N movement overnight (I think).

[sponger]

I'm not saying you were saying Tampa at all. Cedar key could be it. Either way, I honestly don't care where it goes. I was making a general statement. Sorry if that offended you. Not my intention.

to be fair ( not saying it could be near tampa) but the trough is supposed to weaken tonight and if it does not induce the forward motion things could change. until it starts that forward motion dont let guard down. Especially since most of the heavy winds and rain will be affecting the west central coast.

Yes. The storm has not yet been picked up by the trough. Should have happened by now. Feel like it's possible the storm could be left lingering for awhile in the SE Gulf. Models don't show it. But if the model forecast is to pan out, Hermine needs to begin a decisive N movement overnight (I think).

Please NO!!!

[MetroMike]

This evening Levi Cowan seems confident of a North Florida landfall despite the slight jog east.

[johngaltfla]

I could see this coming in as far south as maybe Sarasota and as far west as Pensacola but this may be a formidable hurricane at landfall

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

I'm going to have to say no. Storms which hit Sarasota historically move south to north either paralleling the coast or later in the season riding strong cold fronts at rapid speed over cooler waters. For this storm to pull an Elena type move, it would require a massive change in the upper air dynamics.

No further south than Cedar Key and no further west than Apalachicola IMHO. However, keep in mind, when a storm intensifies and hits the Cedar Key area everyone South of there gets the most intense impacts of the wind and rain. Sarasota, especially the barrier islands and every point north will be a mess.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I like the area eat or just east of Apalachicola.

i definitely see a east shift for 00z given its current location and motion. not tampa east though. cedar key is looking pretty good.

I'd be shocked if the NHC and the models were that far off inside of 36 hours.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010019
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 11 20160901
001000 2649N 08826W 8149 01840 0060 +173 +151 049015 016 027 000 00
001030 2647N 08825W 8334 01645 0060 +179 +167 042017 017 027 000 03
001100 2645N 08825W 8429 01545 0056 +187 +162 035019 020 027 000 00
001130 2642N 08825W 8429 01542 0056 +187 +171 032019 020 025 000 00
001200 2640N 08824W 8429 01544 0056 +185 +165 031020 020 024 000 00
001230 2638N 08824W 8430 01540 0055 +185 +163 030019 020 024 000 03
001300 2636N 08822W 8430 01541 0055 +185 +163 037016 018 023 000 03
001330 2634N 08821W 8430 01542 0054 +186 +165 038015 016 024 000 03
001400 2633N 08819W 8432 01538 0053 +186 +166 035015 015 024 000 00
001430 2631N 08817W 8429 01542 0052 +186 +167 029013 015 023 000 00
001500 2629N 08815W 8430 01538 0051 +190 +163 039011 011 024 000 03
001530 2628N 08814W 8429 01539 0051 +186 +162 045010 010 022 000 00
001600 2626N 08812W 8428 01543 0050 +188 +156 042008 009 024 001 00
001630 2625N 08810W 8429 01540 0050 +186 +155 036009 009 024 000 00
001700 2623N 08808W 8429 01539 0050 +185 +161 048011 012 023 000 03
001730 2622N 08807W 8429 01535 0048 +188 +160 045013 013 023 000 00
001800 2620N 08805W 8431 01534 0048 +190 +164 055014 015 023 000 00
001830 2619N 08803W 8429 01535 0045 +188 +169 054014 015 021 000 00
001900 2617N 08802W 8429 01538 0043 +190 +167 051013 014 021 000 00
001930 2616N 08800W 8430 01531 0041 +191 +167 049013 013 021 001 03
$$
;

Now at operational altitude.

[Dean4Storms]

Chris Smith the Meteorologist out of PC said and showed the graphic that the RPM model went further West with a landfall right over PCB in the Panhandle.