ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.

I blame Windows 10.

Oh and us night owls will be up around 0400 to see if there is indeed a shift in the projected path. Because it's what we do.

[MetroMike]

If the recon plots are correct center is 25.5 87.2, so a bit right of last advisory, but it could be a wobble rather than a trend, as happens with many systems. Its the old wobble "I'm changing course" trick that drives many people crazy, only to find two hours later that it was just a wobble...

Well I do hope so, this so called wobble is disconcerting for me.

[robbielyn]

First forecast from three days ago. Man the NHC really sucks. Not even close.

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.

yeah if its not broke don't fix it.

[Hammy]

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

Of course I am. The mood from the forum today makes it sound like this was forecasted to go to Texas. Besides a little timing error, the track has been nailed on. Intensity is probably gonna be about as good as it gets.


But if you've gone through the pages of posts today, you'd think that the NHC has had a catastrophic track and intensity error.

I'm of the thinking the track has been off, but the blame is squarely on bad model outputs that we've been dealing with the last two years. They almost seem to get worse every time they upgrade them.

[Michele B]

I don't think it would be prudent to advise people in Pinellas to not be prepared for storm conditions. Although there is no watch or warning, there is a large circulation and it is elongated, so there could be high winds in bands farther from the center. Regarding the VDM's being located eastward, it is something that happened. Those folks were making an observation and thinking that maybe they should be more prepared. I don't think there is anything wrong with that.

We have to remember Governor Scott released an executive order this morning regarding 42 counties identified in his State of Emergency declaration... Pinellas and Hillsborough should be on there. I also know the new EM director for Pasco and he is one of the best and would certainly assist neighboring counties any time.

With this said - I will stick to my assertion / prediction this storm will hit much further south - like Tampa or Sarasota directly. If I am wrong then I will happily admit it. All I ask is that those of us with such wild and speculative theories be given at least a little due process before passing judgement. Thanks

How about throwing in some compelling meteorological rationale to back up a suggestion that diverges wildly from the NHC? Those guys are very good at what they do. I have no issue with folks taking exception to the official forecast but if it's hundreds of miles different and has no other support the foundation needs to be built upon facts and logic that other really smart folks somehow failed to take into account. These assertions tend to be lacking such underpinnings.

How about the fact that the CoC appears to bet at 25N,87W right now? Seems very much further east than earlier. Seems to have changed course to due east.

This assertion taken from looking at this animated model:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I'm NO expert, so please,tell me where I'm wrong.

[Noles2016]

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

Of course I am. The mood from the forum today makes it sound like this was forecasted to go to Texas. Besides a little timing error, the track has been nailed on. Intensity is probably gonna be about as good as it gets.


But if you've gone through the pages of posts today, you'd think that the NHC has had a catastrophic track and intensity error.

I'm of the thinking the track has been off, but the blame is squarely on bad model outputs that we've been dealing with the last two years. They almost seem to get worse every time they upgrade them.

The track has been very good and pretty consistent.

[NDG]

About the same since the last pass by the NOAA plane, reported by the AF recon.

004800 2504N 08636W 8434 01527 0061 +175 +175 205052 054 048 014 00

[RL3AO]

Anyone in the path needs to be focusing on the impacts that are most threatening to them. In the Tampa area, it's going to be flooding. In the Big Bend area it will be flooding both from rain and surge. This storm has the first ever storm surge warning (prototype) in effect. That in itself is an astounding fact that is somewhat been underplayed.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010050
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 14 20160901
004000 2521N 08655W 8440 01494 0021 +170 +166 234034 035 027 005 00
004030 2520N 08653W 8424 01512 0021 +179 +175 236036 040 030 009 03
004100 2519N 08652W 8460 01475 0041 +167 //// 222042 048 022 048 05
004130 2518N 08651W 8436 01500 0041 +173 +173 212041 042 038 037 00
004200 2517N 08650W 8434 01509 0047 +172 +172 212039 041 037 037 00
004230 2516N 08648W 8429 01518 0049 +171 +171 213038 038 039 016 00
004300 2514N 08647W 8429 01518 0043 +176 +176 213041 042 043 009 00
004330 2513N 08646W 8417 01531 0041 +181 +181 218046 050 046 013 00
004400 2512N 08645W 8426 01518 0045 +182 +182 207052 053 044 013 00
004430 2511N 08644W 8445 01500 0046 +180 +180 209048 051 045 011 00
004500 2510N 08642W 8422 01529 0050 +178 +178 210045 049 046 012 00
004530 2509N 08641W 8439 01512 0051 +177 +177 210047 049 043 010 00
004600 2508N 08640W 8429 01527 0053 +174 +174 207047 049 044 010 00
004630 2507N 08639W 8425 01531 0054 +170 +170 208046 047 046 009 00
004700 2506N 08638W 8431 01527 0054 +171 +171 211045 047 046 011 03
004730 2505N 08637W 8432 01525 0057 +175 +175 207047 049 046 011 00
004800 2504N 08636W 8434 01527 0061 +175 +175 205052 054 048 014 00
004830 2503N 08634W 8420 01539 0059 +174 +174 208049 053 047 015 00
004900 2502N 08633W 8436 01512 0051 +174 +174 206047 049 045 015 03
004930 2501N 08632W 8431 01517 0053 +170 +170 199047 048 047 014 00
$$
;

54 kt FL, 48 kt SFMR.

[Hammy]

About the same since the last pass by the NOAA plane, reported by the AF recon.

004800 2504N 08636W 8434 01527 0061 +175 +175 205052 054 048 014 00

I notice since earlier every pass has the stronger winds closer to the center as well--this is essentially just outside of it, so it's consolidated quite a bit today.

[psyclone]

Anyone in the path needs to be focusing on the impacts that are most threatening to them. In the Tampa area, it's going to be flooding. In the Big Bend area it will be flooding both from rain and surge. This storm has the first ever storm surge warning (prototype) in effect. That in itself is an astounding fact that is somewhat been underplayed.

I'm gushing (pun intended) over the storm surge product. Just terrific.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

We have to remember Governor Scott released an executive order this morning regarding 42 counties identified in his State of Emergency declaration... Pinellas and Hillsborough should be on there. I also know the new EM director for Pasco and he is one of the best and would certainly assist neighboring counties any time.

With this said - I will stick to my assertion / prediction this storm will hit much further south - like Tampa or Sarasota directly. If I am wrong then I will happily admit it. All I ask is that those of us with such wild and speculative theories be given at least a little due process before passing judgement. Thanks

How about throwing in some compelling meteorological rationale to back up a suggestion that diverges wildly from the NHC? Those guys are very good at what they do. I have no issue with folks taking exception to the official forecast but if it's hundreds of miles different and has no other support the foundation needs to be built upon facts and logic that other really smart folks somehow failed to take into account. These assertions tend to be lacking such underpinnings.

Definately not wobbling that's a clear move east..not northeast. But east.

How about the fact that the CoC appears to bet at 25N,87W right now? Seems very much further east than earlier. Seems to have changed course to due east.

This assertion taken from looking at this animated model:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

I'm NO expert, so please,tell me where I'm wrong.

That's a clear move east. Not northeast but plain east.

[Weatherboy1]

While it's impossible to say if this is just a wobble or something more, I would note that we've had other instances of systems interacting with troughs and getting shoved further east of north than expected. My personal experience would be with Hurricane Irene in 1999. She was supposed to move almost due north and up the west coast of Florida. But instead she kept tracking east of north (and the projected model paths), ultimately heading NNE and NE right over me in coastal Palm Beach County. We will see if Hermine has any similar tricks up her sleeve.

[NDG]

It jogged to the north based on the latest fix by the recon.

[PineyWoods]

I don't post much in the tropics forum, but I actually think the NHC projected path has been pretty good to this point. Especially with this particular system.

[kevin mathis]

Were you referring to the relocation of the possible center to the east or the track going to the east more?

He said that embedded in the oval low level center, there's two minima, one on the NW side of the convection, and one consolidating under the MLC hwere the convection is. Actually it looks like the recon just went through the NW one. Anyways, he makes the argument that the eastern one may become dominant, and may end up rotating around the entirety of the oval low level center when it changes tomorrow, which might send that minima in a brief N-NW heading. To say that the entirety of this system is moving E-ENE is false (I apologize if I insinuated that), the overall flow doesn't make sense for that

The relocation was South East, by a good margin. The question is, what does that do to the track. A 50 mile move south east is not and could not be predicted by the models and could have a change in track. The question is, how much?

Actually if you look at the 12z NAM4k it showed several cyclonic loops (I know its the NAM...)

[SolarBear73]

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

Of course I am. The mood from the forum today makes it sound like this was forecasted to go to Texas. Besides a little timing error, the track has been nailed on. Intensity is probably gonna be about as good as it gets.


But if you've gone through the pages of posts today, you'd think that the NHC has had a catastrophic track and intensity error.

I agree. The NHC has done a fine job in predicting the nuances of this terribly erratic and unpredictable storm. They can only do so much and can't be responsible for preparing, informing and warning specific communities. The NHC operates on a national level. At some point in the process state, county, and local officials have to make decisions and prepare their communities for the storm.

[gatorcane]

Saved shortwave IR loop

[Michele B]

I'm sure your being facetious....Not too bad....But it hasn't totally finished yet...

I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.

yeah if its not broke don't fix it.

It's pretty broke now!

[Noles2016]

I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.

yeah if its not broke don't fix it.

It's pretty broke now!

No, it's really not.