ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7181 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:10 pm

I think the most interesting thing going on at the moment is the stronger winds recon is now finding
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7182 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:11 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Models had the trough lifting this north 12 hours ago. Something clearly did not go right


It's supposed to weaken tonight as pro-Met wxsouth said on page 320.
Last edited by JaxGator on Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7183 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:12 pm

stormreader wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Center still elongated NW to SE

Yes. The elongation is due to the influence and pull of the trough SW to NE. That should also be the general direction of the storm itself. But as of now, that is not the case.


I don't know where you're getting your info. but Recon found the LLC and it had moved just a tad East of due North or NNE! You should track the overall position of the low level center fixes and not swirling clouds from a sat loop from above in this type situation where their is no clear eye to track!
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7184 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:13 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 010109
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 16 20160901
010000 2439N 08609W 8428 01537 0061 +162 +156 203052 053 035 010 00
010030 2438N 08608W 8430 01537 0062 +163 +157 204051 052 035 010 00
010100 2437N 08607W 8431 01535 0066 +162 +162 204051 052 035 011 00
010130 2436N 08606W 8430 01535 0070 +158 //// 204050 051 036 010 01
010200 2435N 08605W 8432 01534 0066 +158 +158 206050 050 037 011 00
010230 2434N 08604W 8429 01540 0069 +158 +156 205050 050 036 012 00
010300 2432N 08604W 8429 01538 0073 +154 //// 202048 049 036 013 01
010330 2431N 08603W 8427 01543 0071 +157 +157 203049 050 035 013 00
010400 2430N 08602W 8428 01539 0073 +162 +162 206048 049 036 008 00
010430 2429N 08602W 8433 01535 0065 +166 +162 204049 049 034 009 00
010500 2428N 08601W 8426 01543 0062 +170 +160 203049 050 034 005 00
010530 2427N 08600W 8433 01539 0064 +165 +165 203049 050 030 004 01
010600 2426N 08559W 8431 01540 0064 +168 +164 204047 049 031 004 00
010630 2425N 08557W 8423 01551 0074 +164 //// 210045 049 031 003 01
010700 2424N 08556W 8439 01529 0060 +175 +161 208050 051 032 004 00
010730 2423N 08555W 8412 01565 0071 +172 //// 211045 049 035 006 01
010800 2422N 08554W 8420 01555 0070 +174 +174 211045 050 031 007 00
010830 2421N 08552W 8433 01540 0071 +171 //// 206048 050 033 006 01
010900 2420N 08551W 8425 01549 0072 +169 +169 207048 050 031 009 00
010930 2419N 08550W 8431 01541 0078 +161 //// 207047 049 035 006 01
$$
;
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7185 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:13 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:I think the most interesting thing going on at the moment is the stronger winds recon is now finding


The intensity and the quantity. The latest set, every reading at flight level was between 49 and 53 knots, and it's far to the SE of Hermine's center.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7186 Postby MetroMike » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:14 pm

JaxGator wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Models had the trough lifting this north 12 hours ago. Something clearly did not go right


It's supposed to weaken tonight as pro-Met wxsouth said on page 320 stated.

Don't think it is supposed to weaken, if anything it is becoming more vertically stacked.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7187 Postby Michele B » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:14 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like the MLC is displaced maybe 10 miles or so to the SE of the LLC, LLC is tracking NNE.
Stop being fooled by upper level swirling clouds, they are not the surface circulation.


I'm afraid I cannot tell the difference.

How do you see that? Educate me, please.

I'm not being facetious! I want to learn.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7188 Postby drewschmaltz » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:14 pm

JaxGator wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Models had the trough lifting this north 12 hours ago. Something clearly did not go right


It's supposed to weaken tonight as pro-Met wxsouth said on page 320 stated.


I didn't know storms were supposed to do things. I feel so lucky to listen to pro mets here posting. I thought storms were forecasted, not supposed.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7189 Postby chris_fit » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:15 pm

I think recon missed the center by a bit for the VDM, pressure up to 1003 but the winds went up by quite a bit - makes no sense
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7190 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:15 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:I think the most interesting thing going on at the moment is the stronger winds recon is now finding


The intensity and the quantity. The latest set, every reading at flight level was between 49 and 53 knots, and it's far to the SE of Hermine's center.


That'll make it down to the surface in not too long if the convection continues to boil like this.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7191 Postby JaxGator » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:15 pm

drewschmaltz wrote:
JaxGator wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:Models had the trough lifting this north 12 hours ago. Something clearly did not go right


It's supposed to weaken tonight as pro-Met wxsouth said on page 320 stated.


I didn't know storms were supposed to do things. I feel so lucky to listen to pro mets here posting. I thought storms were forecasted, not supposed.


Yes, forecasted. Sorry for the bad wording there.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7192 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:16 pm

So.. noaa planes fly higher and the sfmr are higher and Fl lower. AF fly a little lower and Fl are and sfmr are lower. Maybe just do a blend of the two. In which case we would have 65mph system.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7193 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:17 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 010108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/00:36:40Z
B. 25 deg 31 min N
087 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1430 m
D. 28 kt
E. 299 deg 7 nm
F. 037 deg 16 kt
G. 309 deg 94 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 19 C / 1525 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0.03 nm
P. AF307 1109A HERMINE OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT 134 / 69 NM 00:59:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 15 KT
;
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7194 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:17 pm

Michele B wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Looks like the MLC is displaced maybe 10 miles or so to the SE of the LLC, LLC is tracking NNE.
Stop being fooled by upper level swirling clouds, they are not the surface circulation.


I'm afraid I cannot tell the difference.

How do you see that? Educate me, please.

I'm not being facetious! I want to learn.


Pretty easy, you locate on a sat loop where Recon made the center fix then watch where the upper cloud center that is swirling. If the center of the swirl is not where the Low Level Center was located by Recon then the upper level swirl or MLC is displaced.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7195 Postby ocala » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:19 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
Hammy wrote:I think it's time to 'downgrade' all the models back to where they were in 2012 or so. This is just absurd and the main reason NHC forecasts are so far off.


I blame Windows 10.

Oh and us night owls will be up around 0400 to see if there is indeed a shift in the projected path. Because it's what we do. 8-)

I am seriously thinking of doing this. :D
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7196 Postby stormreader » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:20 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
stormreader wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Center still elongated NW to SE

Yes. The elongation is due to the influence and pull of the trough SW to NE. That should also be the general direction of the storm itself. But as of now, that is not the case.


I don't know where you're getting your info. but Recon found the LLC and it had moved just a tad East of due North or NNE! You should track the overall position of the low level center fixes and not swirling clouds from a sat loop from above in this type situation where their is no clear eye to track!
But at this point, I don't think we can yet say that this measured motion qualifies as being "picked up by the trough". I'm waiting for something definitive.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7197 Postby MetroMike » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:20 pm

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7198 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:22 pm

The outflow pattern could certainly be worse. That was the first thing that jumped out at me after not looking at Hermine for a while on a busy day.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7199 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:24 pm

Recent microwave shows the system is looking pretty ragged and highly asymmetric.

Image

I wouldn't expect much further intensification until more symmetry is gained in the convective pattern. I'm not really sure of the source of the lack of convection on the NW side. It could be from a lack of low-level convergence due to the elongated circulation off to the NE.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7200 Postby drewschmaltz » Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:24 pm



Everything in the gulf suddenly jolts east. That last frame though. A lot of North there.
Last edited by drewschmaltz on Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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