ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Hermine may surprise many despite her looks. Wouldn't surprise me to see a Cat.1 hurricane making landfall somewhere in the eastern Florida Panhandle early Friday morning. If strengthening trends continue then hurricane warnings would be necessary for portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region as early as later tonight.

Could this be the storm that finally ends Florida's long-lived hurricane drought? Only time will tell!

[psyclone]

The rain is letting up in the bay area and may even completely stop for a time. I can't wait

[tolakram]

Looks like the MLC is displaced maybe 10 miles or so to the SE of the LLC, LLC is tracking NNE.
Stop being fooled by upper level swirling clouds, they are not the surface circulation.

I'm afraid I cannot tell the difference.

How do you see that? Educate me, please.

I'm not being facetious! I want to learn.

Hi Michelle, I'm not caught up so this may be a repeat and if a blue name answered they are going to do better than me. When you look at an IR view of the storm you are only looking at the cloud tops. Think of a helium balloon on a string when the winds are calm. Your hand is the low level circulation and the balloon is the cloud tops above the LLC. Now add in some upper level winds and the balloon starts to drift in one direction. Your hand hasn't moved but the balloon has.

If it's a big ole balloon and you're looking down from a satellite you won't be able to see your hand until the wind is strong enough to really blow the balloon off to the side. That's is some of what we are seeing with the satellite loops. The storm is being sheared by winds blowing in from the west. The LLC may have drifted east a little but most of the apparent movement is just the balloon blowing around in the wind.

I'll let a pro met blast my horrible explanation.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010139
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 19 20160901
013000 2521N 08542W 8418 01550 0070 +163 //// 187051 051 030 005 01
013030 2524N 08543W 8433 01544 0076 +161 //// 184054 054 030 004 01
013100 2526N 08543W 8430 01546 0083 +161 //// 182050 054 031 005 05
013130 2528N 08544W 8432 01544 0075 +168 //// 188045 047 028 004 01
013200 2530N 08544W 8427 01549 0082 +166 +166 185042 043 036 010 00
013230 2532N 08545W 8430 01545 0084 +163 +163 188044 046 036 007 00
013300 2534N 08546W 8433 01539 0086 +156 +156 189050 053 036 008 00
013330 2536N 08546W 8425 01548 0080 +157 +156 187050 051 037 007 00
013400 2539N 08547W 8428 01544 0079 +158 +158 184052 053 038 007 00
013430 2541N 08547W 8438 01534 0078 +155 +155 185053 054 039 007 00
013500 2543N 08548W 8422 01551 0078 +159 +159 183050 053 038 007 00
013530 2545N 08549W 8430 01543 0075 +159 //// 184051 052 038 005 01
013600 2547N 08549W 8429 01546 0077 +158 //// 182053 053 040 004 01
013630 2549N 08550W 8430 01544 //// +154 //// 181053 054 041 004 01
013700 2552N 08550W 8429 01544 //// +157 //// 178050 053 042 003 01
013730 2554N 08551W 8429 01548 0078 +164 //// 173045 049 038 005 01
013800 2556N 08552W 8430 01542 0083 +162 //// 171041 042 041 004 01
013830 2558N 08552W 8420 01560 0079 +170 //// 169039 042 040 005 01
013900 2600N 08553W 8438 01536 0071 +172 //// 175044 046 039 006 01
013930 2602N 08553W 8422 01548 0067 +173 //// 184048 049 033 006 01
$$
;

[chargurl]

Why does all of Georgia have a hurricane statement, if storm is forecast to slide through southern/east Georgia?

[NDG]

Might be asymmetric but TS force winds have expanded tonight.

[SeGaBob]

Not everywhere does. The section I live in doesn't have anything yet.

[Soonercane]

Might be asymmetric but TS force winds have expanded tonight.

How can it generate those winds with such a high surface pressure, and large pressure gradient?

[Emmett_Brown]

I love it when recon is in there. Finding the center is really easy... it's wherever they say it is!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[tropicwatch]

[quote="NDG"]Might be asymmetric but TS force winds have expanded tonight.

Finding TS winds in the northeast quadrant as well, impressive!

[SeGaBob]

What's the deal with the 2 separate blobs of convection? They look to be repelling each other.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010149
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 20 20160901
014000 2604N 08554W 8432 01539 0071 +167 //// 180044 047 030 006 01
014030 2606N 08554W 8429 01543 0069 +163 //// 177044 046 029 004 01
014100 2608N 08555W 8430 01542 0070 +165 //// 178043 043 029 005 05
014130 2609N 08556W 8432 01540 0068 +164 +158 175044 044 030 004 00
014200 2611N 08557W 8428 01545 0069 +165 +151 172044 045 031 002 00
014230 2613N 08558W 8421 01557 0074 +163 +156 169041 043 032 001 00
014300 2615N 08600W 8434 01543 0074 +163 +161 169041 041 032 003 01
014330 2616N 08601W 8427 01550 0075 +162 +159 167039 041 030 001 00
014400 2618N 08602W 8435 01543 //// +160 //// 165037 038 031 003 01
014430 2620N 08604W 8426 01551 0072 +166 +160 162039 040 034 004 01
014500 2622N 08605W 8429 01548 0070 +170 +163 167039 041 036 004 00
014530 2623N 08606W 8433 01543 0070 +168 //// 166034 036 030 005 05
014600 2625N 08608W 8424 01549 //// +160 //// 161031 034 /// /// 05
014630 2624N 08610W 8425 01555 //// +164 //// 163029 031 028 003 01
014700 2623N 08611W 8432 01545 //// +167 //// 165033 035 030 003 01
014730 2622N 08613W 8431 01547 //// +168 //// 161035 036 030 002 01
014800 2621N 08615W 8432 01545 //// +169 //// 157034 035 029 002 01
014830 2620N 08618W 8427 01549 0068 +167 +166 156028 033 029 001 01
014900 2620N 08620W 8427 01547 0072 +165 +158 155031 034 029 000 05
014930 2619N 08622W 8434 01539 0067 +168 +163 150030 034 028 001 00
$$
;

[tarheelprogrammer]

I love it when recon is in there. Finding the center is really easy... it's wherever they say it is!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

My favorite part too.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/771138276686237696

[BRweather]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

If you watch the north blob closely on the northwest side of it, you can see where the convection is pivoting around the center just holding for it's life. The sheer is just low enough where the the center can hold it near. But yeah, watch that northwest side and you can see it extend outwards as its rotating.

[chaser1]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

[NDG]

Might be asymmetric but TS force winds have expanded tonight.

How can it generate those winds with such a high surface pressure, and large pressure gradient?

Pressure gradient on its eastern quadrant if pretty tight, 1014 mb pressures over eastern coastal FL.

[Orlando]

I read that Manatee Co had fish swimming in the streets.

Here in SW Orlando we have had a steady rain for the past hour, but not all day downpours yet. Another inch and I'll have to dump water out of the pool though.

For what it's worth, my arthritis is not bothering me too much, so I don't anticipate the center coming too close to Tampa.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010159
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 21 20160901
015000 2618N 08624W 8428 01545 0065 +172 +157 148030 030 029 000 00
015030 2617N 08625W 8429 01542 0062 +175 +156 150030 031 027 001 00
015100 2616N 08627W 8428 01540 0059 +177 +151 151030 031 030 001 00
015130 2614N 08629W 8430 01539 0059 +174 +154 156029 030 030 001 00
015200 2613N 08631W 8427 01539 0056 +174 +154 155030 031 028 001 00
015230 2612N 08633W 8432 01533 0054 +175 +151 153031 031 028 000 00
015300 2611N 08635W 8429 01534 0051 +178 +148 151030 031 030 000 00
015330 2610N 08637W 8432 01529 0048 +180 +147 149031 031 029 000 00
015400 2609N 08638W 8430 01532 0047 +180 +150 149030 031 032 001 00
015430 2608N 08640W 8431 01529 0045 +183 +147 146029 030 033 001 00
015500 2607N 08642W 8430 01529 0042 +185 +143 146029 030 033 001 00
015530 2606N 08644W 8429 01528 0040 +188 +139 146028 029 031 001 00
015600 2605N 08646W 8430 01525 0037 +190 +137 142026 028 031 002 00
015630 2604N 08648W 8430 01526 0035 +192 +136 136027 028 029 001 00
015700 2602N 08650W 8433 01520 0032 +191 +139 132029 030 029 000 00
015730 2601N 08651W 8425 01529 0029 +194 +136 123027 030 036 001 00
015800 2600N 08653W 8433 01516 0025 +195 +147 120028 030 036 001 00
015830 2558N 08655W 8431 01516 0018 +202 +149 114031 033 036 001 00
015900 2557N 08656W 8425 01519 0012 +207 +149 106032 034 035 001 00
015930 2555N 08658W 8429 01511 0006 +209 +151 100033 034 035 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

Before dark I was thinking it would be exposed soon as the tops were starting to be pushed to the east. Still another 12 hours or so hours before the models showed this increasing in organization and intensity.