ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Noles2016]

I'm not usually one to criticize a storm but I don't see how it's strengthening. Its just 2 blobs...

Not impressed with the presentation, either... but it's still deepening...

[Evil Jeremy]

So the 7:00 pm intermediate indicated Hermine was at 25.5N & 87.4W. Here I sit looking at the satellite along with that plot and I'm asking myself if Hermine's COC is practically exposed and no longer under deep convection given that her North (or NNE) motion would implie that. Or, has the storm drifted toward the east?

Recon finding it around 87.0W, 25.5N. It's drifted east a bit, but it's still on the NW side of the convection.

That's no Northerly motion since 5 est. And almost a half degree east. It's further east than their 12 hour 5 am forecast point. Not that it won't all even out but we'll see.

I got the numbers incorrect.

[OntarioEggplant]

This is going to be sub 990 tomorrow

[SunnyThoughts]

So recon finds 999 mb at this time, and what was it during the last recon mission? 1003? so its dropped 5 mb in just a very few hours? ANd did any of the models forecast sub 1000 mb at this point in the Gulf?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon through 10:09pm EDT:

[TheStormExpert]

Guesses for 11pm advisory?

I'll go with 1000mb and 60mph, with a forecasted landfall intensity of 70mph, but hurricane warnings posted regardless.

I'm going with 50kts @11pm with a pressure of 999mb and being forecasted to make landfall with winds of 65kts(minimal Cat.1 hurricane), if this pans out hurricane warnings will be posted tonight.

[txwatcher91]

So recon finds 999 mb at this time, and what was it during the last recon mission? 1003? so its dropped 5 mb in just a very few hours? ANd did any of the models forecast sub 1000 mb at this point in the Gulf?

A few of them have, mainly the NAM and RGEM the rest didn't bring it sub 1000 until later tonight or tomorrow.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out this loop. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html this will give you a good idea of it's movement and why the NHC shifted the track west.

[BRweather]

Recon is heading home.

Next flight is NOAA at around 11pm CDT

[TheStormExpert]

Feederband as far east as SE Florida. Hermine no doubt continues to surprise:

https://s18.postimg.org/66beqimah/radar.jpg

Yippee!!! More rain! Could really use it lakes in my community were starting to dry up.

[NWFL56]

Maybe I have 1998 stuck in my head, but could this end up pulling an Earl and strengthen beyond the forecasts despite the elongated/asymmetric nature? Earl looked like an occluded system but was producing 100mph winds and ironically affected the same area.

Earl was fun... packed a pretty good little punch...

Earl gave me 18" of water in my bdrm. Good little punch for sure.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010219
AF307 1109A HERMINE HDOB 23 20160901
021000 2520N 08720W 8429 01527 0035 +192 +149 288020 021 022 000 03
021030 2519N 08722W 8434 01525 0039 +189 +153 281021 022 024 000 00
021100 2517N 08724W 8425 01533 0041 +181 +161 285019 021 023 001 03
021130 2516N 08726W 8287 01661 0022 +177 +157 283017 019 /// /// 03
021200 2518N 08727W 7955 02007 0009 +167 +133 297013 015 020 000 00
021230 2520N 08728W 7548 02449 0003 +146 +109 310012 013 020 000 00
021300 2521N 08728W 7200 02847 0004 +118 +088 316013 016 019 000 00
021330 2523N 08729W 6974 03130 0015 +107 +071 328019 019 017 000 00
021400 2525N 08730W 6957 03160 0027 +107 +062 332018 019 017 000 00
021430 2528N 08730W 6965 03156 0025 +115 +057 346017 017 017 000 00
021500 2530N 08731W 6966 03155 0027 +114 +059 353016 017 018 000 00
021530 2532N 08731W 6967 03154 0018 +122 +055 001017 018 019 000 00
021600 2535N 08732W 6966 03154 0016 +124 +056 009019 019 019 000 00
021630 2537N 08733W 6967 03156 0017 +124 +057 014018 019 019 000 03
021700 2539N 08733W 6967 03155 0022 +120 +062 018020 022 019 000 30
021730 2542N 08734W 6967 03156 0023 +120 +055 018022 022 019 000 00
021800 2544N 08735W 6968 03154 0022 +117 +057 023021 022 019 000 00
021830 2547N 08735W 6967 03156 0024 +115 +055 026021 021 017 000 00
021900 2549N 08736W 6966 03156 0024 +115 +055 028021 021 016 000 00
021930 2551N 08737W 6967 03156 0028 +115 +056 031022 022 017 000 00
$$

[HurricaneRyan]

About time Hermine got named.

And glad it was this depression and not TD 8.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 010213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092016
A. 01/02:02:30Z
B. 25 deg 44 min N
087 deg 01 min W
C. 850 mb 1420 m
D. 36 kt
E. 029 deg 19 nm
F. 082 deg 35 kt
G. 010 deg 9 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 21 C / 1527 m
J. 21 C / 1520 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0.03 nm
P. AF307 1109A HERMINE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 57 KT 128 / 95 NM 01:20:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 235 / 16 KT
;

Actual pressure 998mb.

[FLLurker32]

Ok so I have a question for the more experienced in here. As someone else pointed out, the area on the latest forecast path looks almost completely north of where recon is finding the center at right now. With the NE movement still expected, wouldn't that mean the updated track will HAVE to be moved back a bit east?

[tropicwatch]

Ok so I have a question for the more experienced in here. As someone else pointed out, the area on the latest forecast path looks almost completely north of where recon is finding the center at right now. With the NE movement still expected, wouldn't that mean the updated track will HAVE to be moved back a bit east?

The storm is still actually west of my position in Panama City which is Basically 85W. The latest recon fix was at 87.01W so not necessarily.

[BRweather]

Something to keep in mind..

When we went through Issac several years ago the storm looked absolutely ugly on the north side, hardly and rain and wind. But as it got closer and closer to the coast, all the weather rotated around at a very good pace and it's peaked presentation came as it was coming ashore.

Different scenario here, but looking at how the NAM 00z plays this out, it reminded me of Issac.

[willwill]

Hermine will be in jacksonville and NHC will say it's still going to go west . I call bs on the shifts to the west.It's cedar key storm, and i'm standing by that opinion

[FLLurker32]

Ok so I have a question for the more experienced in here. As someone else pointed out, the area on the latest forecast path looks almost completely north of where recon is finding the center at right now. With the NE movement still expected, wouldn't that mean the updated track will HAVE to be moved back a bit east?

The storm is still actually west of my position in Panama City which is Basically 85W. The latest recon fix was at 87.01W so not necessarily.

Yeah but from where it is now and where you are it would have to go NNE pretty much the whole way. That's not how it was forecasted. Please feel free to let me know if you think I'm wrong. I'm really curious about this.

[hipshot]

Ok so I have a question for the more experienced in here. As someone else pointed out, the area on the latest forecast path looks almost completely north of where recon is finding the center at right now. With the NE movement still expected, wouldn't that mean the updated track will HAVE to be moved back a bit east?

The storm is still actually west of my position in Panama City which is Basically 85W. The latest recon fix was at 87.01W so not necessarily.

Yeah but from where it is now and where you are it would have to go NNE pretty much the whole way. That's not how it was forecasted. Please feel free to let me know if you think I'm wrong. I'm really curious about this.

I'm sorry but I'm not sure some of these folks know North from South or East from West. Maybe they have been tracking this thing too
long and need a break. I know sometimes I do.