ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Port St. Joe, Aplachicola are east of us and that is basically the center of the forecast cone.

[rolltide]

Once the mid level spin on the east side of the COC moves further east and most likely dissipates I think the convection will re-fire near the COC. We'll see.

[FLLurker32]

The storm is still actually west of my position in Panama City which is Basically 85W. The latest recon fix was at 87.01W so not necessarily.

Yeah but from where it is now and where you are it would have to go NNE pretty much the whole way. That's not how it was forecasted. Please feel free to let me know if you think I'm wrong. I'm really curious about this.

I'm sorry but I'm not sure some of these folks know North from South or East from West. Maybe they have been tracking this thing too
long and need a break. I know sometimes I do.

I mapped the coordinates before asking my question (Admittedly, I'm on a smart phone and it's not ideal for this). Your snark says more about you than my question says about me.

[crimi481]

Of course NHC may be correct - but -Just from watching the loops, I see 2 fried eggs going east ( or ene) - heading for Tampa (or even more south) Charlie country.
Imagine getting hit by 2 storms next to each other?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-bd.html

Not a Pro

[txwatcher91]

Recon data indicated this is moving, or drifting, due north. This is likely the start of the NE turn. Also it's looking a little better on IR now with convection slowly expanding. The main hindrance now is shear, if that lets up or begins to orient the same direction the system is forecast to go then it will take off imo. This could happen tomorrow as it approaches land.

[Evil Jeremy]

10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.8°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

...HERMINE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Suwannee River westward
to Mexico Beach Florida. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended
from Altamaha Sound Georgia northward to the South Santee River
South Carolina.



TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
afternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to
strengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and
peak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center
of Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease
of 6 mb from the previous advisory.

Recon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion
is north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric
trough located over the southeastern United States and extending
southward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to
gradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and
Thursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is
in very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern.
Later in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track
forecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone
interacts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the
northeastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been
shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track,
primarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from
recent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model
TVCN.

The vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models
to shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to
southwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected
to be near 30C. The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine
to hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast
follows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning
with this advisory. The predicted extratropical transition of the
system is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone
becoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United
States by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 25.8N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.7N 85.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 30.7N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z 32.8N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0000Z 37.0N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 05/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

[RL3AO]

Surge

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

[bg1]

Guesses for 11pm advisory?

I'll go with 1000mb and 60mph, with a forecasted landfall intensity of 70mph, but hurricane warnings posted regardless.

Nice! Only 2 mb off!

And 5 mph off intensity now that I see the map.

[Hurricane Andrew]

10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 31
Location: 25.8°N 87.0°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA

Hmm. Was right about winds, off by two mbs, right about warnings, and off about landfall intensity.

:/

[txwatcher91]

I'm seeing signs of convection expanding N and NW over the center. This might indicate shear is relaxing or it could be the effects of DMAX coming into play.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going with 50kts @11pm with a pressure of 999mb and being forecasted to make landfall with winds of 65kts(minimal Cat.1 hurricane), if this pans out hurricane warnings will be posted tonight.

Was nearly spot-on with my 11pm advisory prediction only 1mb short!

[bg1]

I'm right in the middle of the cone 48 hours out!

Then again, the last time I was in the cone even three days out, I was expecting a Category 2 Hanna (2008) to ruin my day, but it ended acting weird and we only got fierce rainbands. Let's see if Hermine has more tricks up her sleeve and avoids SC. (Though we'll probably get rained out regardless...)

[kevin mathis]

Small shift in forecast track to the east. Not real significant, but is it a sign of things to come.I say Steinhatchee to Cedar Key, Cat1

[SeGaBob]

Center passes right over me if you zoom in on the interactive map. Not sure I'd get much that way.

[ConvergenceZone]

This storm has been tons of fun to track! Previous years have been tough finding time to read this forum, but now that I'm an Entrepreneur and work 100% from home, I'm having a blast tracking the tropics.

As others have mentioned, it's going to be tough getting a hurricane out of this, but I think a high end tropical storm is definitely possible. We'll probably know if it's going to go hurricane tomorrow, based up presentation

[psyclone]

well that was quite the escalation. that tick east in the track has increased the TS wind odds on the nature coast and bay area. the case for tropical storm warnings a bit south of the current location is certainly better. any additional eastward adjustments would likely require that as the windfield on the eastern side is rather large. I hope folks up in the hurricane warning area are really taking this seriously. they look primed to take a pretty good beating. yikes

[CrazyC83]

Tallahassee has not been hit by a hurricane since 1985 and there are tons of trees there. Even 60 mph winds could be big problems there.

[tropicwatch]

Was kind of surprised to see the H on the forecast cone.