ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JtSmarts]

Local met here in SC is suggesting we may end up in inland ts warning here in the midlands of SC.

[BRweather]

wonder why recon left so early..

they were just there to do a fix on the location. Also they were running behind schedule if you look at planned flight missions. Was suppose to wrap up at 0130Z

[txwatcher91]

Something else for those to consider in NC and the Mid-Atlantic. Models like the Euro, GFS, CMC and NAM are indicating the ridding could build to the north of Hermine with a partial phasing of energy as well as the remnants move through NC. Depending on the timing and how it all works out this could cause big problems further north with beach erosion and strong winds. Where this happens is anyone's guess right now. A slower track, however, would mean more phasing of energy. I haven't seen this discussed on here but it's definitely something those further north need to watch.

[TimeZone]

Local met here in SC is suggesting we may end up in inland ts warning here in the midlands of SC.

Will just be a sloppy rain-maker by the time it gets there. Hell, that's just about all it is right now.

[BRweather]

liftoff

[znel52]

Met's calling for 6-10" of rain in my area of NC between Thur-Sat. Gonna mess up most of labor day weekend. Thanks Hermine! We got Arthur a couple years back on 4th of July weekend. These storms like crashing the party lol.

[Ptarmigan]

that slow movement is problematic now that we have a strengthening system. a 6mb drop between advisories is pretty respectable. Nocturnal bursting could rev the engine some more..

Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Patricia underwent rapid intensification at night.

[txwatcher91]

I'm noticing thickening clouds on the N and NW quadrant on IR, anyone else see this? It also seems like the clouds are accelerating on the NW side whereas before they were moving slowly.

[znel52]

I'm noticing thickening clouds on the N and NW quadrant on IR, anyone else see this? It also seems like the clouds are accelerating on the NW side whereas before they were moving slowly.

Yeah storms have started to fill in on the NW quad a little bit. Interested to see if it holds together or just a brief flare up.

[sponger]

I miss recon already.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm noticing thickening clouds on the N and NW quadrant on IR, anyone else see this? It also seems like the clouds are accelerating on the NW side whereas before they were moving slowly.

Yeah storms have started to fill in on the NW quad a little bit. Interested to see if it holds together or just a brief flare up.

yeah beginning to see some "actual" banding developing. recon may find an even stronger system...

[Aric Dunn]

I miss recon already.

another is on its way. we are on 6 hourly fixes. there will be very little gaps in recon now.

[JKingTampa]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

[AutoPenalti]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

It's moving NE now.

[JKingTampa]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

It's moving NE now.

Yeah that's what I figured. St Petersburg is just in an area where just one more wobble east and impacts would drastically change.

[Aric Dunn]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

It's moving NE now.

when the last recon left it was still barely moving at all. dont mistake the building and expanding convection as motion.. wait for recon.

[sponger]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

It's moving NE now.

I am thinking the East side of Apalachicola Bay is a good landfall target.

[JKingTampa]

What I'm most curious about is the direction of movement they are going to find, and how far east it has drifted.

It's moving NE now.

I am thinking the East side of Apalachicola Bay is a good landfall target.

Agreed, although it wouldn't surprise me to see Cross City or even a tad further southeast as the target. Disregarding the models of course... lol.

[chaser1]

Local met here in SC is suggesting we may end up in inland ts warning here in the midlands of SC.

Will just be a sloppy rain-maker by the time it gets there. Hell, that's just about all it is right now.

I couldn't agree more; one really sloppy poor excuse for a T.S. It is odd stating that while equally aware the storm is slowly deepening and getting stronger. In fact, a northward component of motion would reduced the net shear and I could very well imagine this tropical abortion attaining winds of 80 - 85 mph in its right quadrant, at the point of landfall. Will it have dangerous implications? Oh, definitely!

In spite of the very real risk that storm surge and flooding will soon pose to the right of center I find myself looking at this severely unbalanced baroclinic looking mess, half expecting some return flow of cool fall-like air... yet knowing full well it ain't gonna be there. Looking at this storm, it's pretty hard to believe we're at the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[FLLurker32]

Recon is reporting they're in the storm