ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Recon is reporting they're in the storm

Looks like they went higher in altitude. could it be the winds?

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

Tallahassee has not been hit by a hurricane since 1985 and there are tons of trees there. Even 60 mph winds could be big problems there.

Yep, I was a Freshman here at Florida State. I remember it well. Some people were without power for 2-3 weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is reporting they're in the storm

Looks like they went higher in altitude. could it be the winds?

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

still 30 min from a center pass.

[ncbird]

Local met here in SC is suggesting we may end up in inland ts warning here in the midlands of SC.

Will just be a sloppy rain-maker by the time it gets there. Hell, that's just about all it is right now.

Don't under estimate a sloppy rain-maker. I spent 6 years tracking and researching the impact tropical systems had on North Carolina, both coastal and inland. The one thing that rang true above all else was this quote from Ed Rappaport:

"In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States."
Ed Rappaport - National Hurricane Center


Looks like Hermine is going to make long trek up the eastern coastal states. All be safe.

[FLLurker32]

Recon is reporting they're in the storm

Looks like they went higher in altitude. could it be the winds?

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

still 30 min from a center pass.

Yeah, they're just getting into the storm. Unfortunately, it seems it's a good 5+ minutes between data updates.

[txwatcher91]

I'm going to stay up to see what they find. Huge expansion of convection to the SE and East of where the center is, or could be. It's hard to tell but soon enough we will know. I wouldn't be surprised if pressures are down to 995-996 range with 65mph winds.

Also satellite presentation is improving as we speak. All quadrants filling in nicely except the west and northwest sides. However it appears it may be trying to wrap around somewhat and there is a small burst that appears to be forming near or over the center.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm going to stay up to see what they find. Huge expansion of convection to the SE and East of where the center is, or could be. It's hard to tell but soon enough we will know. I wouldn't be surprised if pressures are down to 995-996 range with 65mph winds.

Also satellite presentation is improving as we speak. All quadrants filling in nicely except the west and northwest sides. However it appears it may be trying to wrap around somewhat and there is a small burst that appears to be forming near or over the center.

agreed. now that its moving stacking is easier.

[txwatcher91]

I'm going to stay up to see what they find. Huge expansion of convection to the SE and East of where the center is, or could be. It's hard to tell but soon enough we will know. I wouldn't be surprised if pressures are down to 995-996 range with 65mph winds.

Also satellite presentation is improving as we speak. All quadrants filling in nicely except the west and northwest sides. However it appears it may be trying to wrap around somewhat and there is a small burst that appears to be forming near or over the center.

agreed. now that its moving stacking is easier.

How would the movement help with that process? I know the movement can help reduce the effects of shear if the shear is parallel to the storm movement but are there other processes involved?

[cdavis6287]

I'm telling you!! North Florida take precautions. The powerful part of the storm is to the south, south/east. Don't pay attention to direct path. I've been in these storms before. Hopefully not gonna be a big deal but stop focusing on the direct path. Its not a bullet.

[ronyan]

This looks stronger. I believe recon will find at least 65, probably 70-75 mph is my guess based on infrared appearance.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Evil Jeremy]

The main convective ball looks better now than it has at any point in this system's long, two week lifespan. I'm excited to see what winds recon finds soon.

That said, while Hermine's LLC continues to move generally NNE, the convection masses as a whole are moving more east than north. I imagine the LLC might get drawn back towards the convection at some point.

[BRweather]

998.7 mb

[Alyono]

pressure looked to be about the same

Getting sheared again. Center exposed based upon the aircraft data

One thing I noticed looking at the HRRR. This could start to transition to ET before landfall. it shows the system starting to take on a frontal structure as soon as this afternoon. Just something to monitor

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to 998..

[SeGaBob]

pressure down to 998..

That's what it was at 11pm. Not really a drop. (yet)

[cdavis6287]

I feel stupid but.... north Fl/ Central NE/NW Fl.... The storm is coming!!!! Paul Revere living through me lol

[JKingTampa]

I feel stupid but.... north Fl/ Central NE/NW Fl.... The storm is coming!!!! Paul Revere living through me lol

Basically anyone from Sarasota to Destin. Haha.

[AdamFirst]

I'm currently in northern New Jersey for vacation. I'm making my way down to PA & possibly Delaware on Sunday. Probably will get the gigantic rain shield from the remnants up here.

[txwatcher91]

pressure looked to be about the same

Getting sheared again. Center exposed based upon the aircraft data

One thing I noticed looking at the HRRR. This could start to transition to ET before landfall. it shows the system starting to take on a frontal structure as soon as this afternoon. Just something to monitor

HRRR verbatim also strengthens this rather quickly to sub 990mb by hour 16. It seems to reform the center SE under the heavier convection and then moves it N to NNE

[BRweather]

probably not a whole lot of strengthening anytime soon