ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to 998..

That's what it was at 11pm. Not really a drop. (yet)

sorry didn't complete my thought. 998mb ... still one set to go for full pass.

[Aric Dunn]

unless it starts moving 12 to 15kts right now .. the early morning landfall friday is not happening..

[Hammy]

Plane found decent TS winds (several 45kt unflagged) in the NE quad, which I believe was the first time they were present there, and a fairly large area for that matter.

[cdavis6287]

I feel stupid but.... north Fl/ Central NE/NW Fl.... The storm is coming!!!! Paul Revere living through me lol

Basically anyone from Sarasota to Destin. Haha.

Sorry.. Perry Fl south to Cedar Key

[BRweather]

important to note that it did not move hardly any since 11PM EDT.

Lowest pressure was at 25.57N OF 998.4

[txwatcher91]

Latest frame of IR seems to indicate significant thickening of the cloud deck on the west side of the circulation, maybe the beginnings of a feeder band?

[Aric Dunn]

Plane found decent TS winds (several 45kt unflagged) in the NE quad, which I believe was the first time they were present there, and a fairly large area for that matter.

yeah very slowly the NE inflow will pick up as the trough weakens. some point tonight we might actually get a fairly symmetrical system.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

important to note that it did not move hardly any since 11PM EDT.

Lowest pressure was at 25.57N OF 998.4

yeah still just above drifting.. about 6mph.

[cdavis6287]

I feel stupid but.... north Fl/ Central NE/NW Fl.... The storm is coming!!!! Paul Revere living through me lol

Basically anyone from Sarasota to Destin. Haha.

Haha..Perry Fl to Cedar Key,Fl. There's always one folks!

[txwatcher91]

important to note that it did not move hardly any since 11PM EDT.

Lowest pressure was at 25.57N OF 998.4

yeah still just above drifting.. about 6mph.

Slower movement would not only give it more time to organize but would also create more havoc down the road for NC and states above it as it would phase sooner and closer to the coast.

[Alyono]

pressure looked to be about the same

Getting sheared again. Center exposed based upon the aircraft data

One thing I noticed looking at the HRRR. This could start to transition to ET before landfall. it shows the system starting to take on a frontal structure as soon as this afternoon. Just something to monitor

HRRR verbatim also strengthens this rather quickly to sub 990mb by hour 16. It seems to reform the center SE under the heavier convection and then moves it N to NNE

This latest run is far different than previous, which were showing slight intensification along with ET

[BRweather]

dry air problematic

[SeGaBob]

NHC says it's moving due north right now.

[FLLurker32]

I feel stupid but.... north Fl/ Central NE/NW Fl.... The storm is coming!!!! Paul Revere living through me lol

Basically anyone from Sarasota to Destin. Haha.

Haha..Perry Fl to Cedar Key,Fl. There's always one folks!

Let's try to NOT wish cast Cedar Key lol I'm in Marion county. While I know I'm going to get a little something being on the east side of it, I don't want to be THAT close.

[txwatcher91]

pressure looked to be about the same

Getting sheared again. Center exposed based upon the aircraft data

One thing I noticed looking at the HRRR. This could start to transition to ET before landfall. it shows the system starting to take on a frontal structure as soon as this afternoon. Just something to monitor

HRRR verbatim also strengthens this rather quickly to sub 990mb by hour 16. It seems to reform the center SE under the heavier convection and then moves it N to NNE

This latest run is far different than previous, which were showing slight intensification along with ET

How useful/accurate is the HRRR for tropical systems? I've used it for severe weather setups but I'm not too familiar with using it for a tropical system.

[BRweather]

pressure looked to be about the same

Getting sheared again. Center exposed based upon the aircraft data

One thing I noticed looking at the HRRR. This could start to transition to ET before landfall. it shows the system starting to take on a frontal structure as soon as this afternoon. Just something to monitor

HRRR verbatim also strengthens this rather quickly to sub 990mb by hour 16. It seems to reform the center SE under the heavier convection and then moves it N to NNE

This latest run is far different than previous, which were showing slight intensification along with ET

I am looking at the most recent HRRR, what makes it look ET to you? curious

[Aric Dunn]

motion aside. the low level structure is very defined finally... still some dynamical uncertainty. It seems from the progression the right side of the models seems much more plausible.

[Alyono]

HRRR verbatim also strengthens this rather quickly to sub 990mb by hour 16. It seems to reform the center SE under the heavier convection and then moves it N to NNE

This latest run is far different than previous, which were showing slight intensification along with ET

I am looking at the most recent HRRR, what makes it look ET to you? curious

was looking at the previous few runs. The new one is fully tropical. I wasn't exactly believing the other ones, but keeping note of the possibility

[BRweather]

This latest run is far different than previous, which were showing slight intensification along with ET

I am looking at the most recent HRRR, what makes it look ET to you? curious

was looking at the previous few runs. The new one is fully tropical. I wasn't exactly believing the other ones, but keeping note of the possibility

okay yes I see...02Z looks ET. interesting

[JKingTampa]

On the last few Tampa Bay radar frames, looks like banding could be coming back.