ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[STRiZZY]

that and just now per recon pressure down 996mb ...key note... very little movement. more relocations. you must realize each reformation and stall will delay landfall. 12z friday is very likely near cedar key. or just north.

Presuming it makes landfall in Cedar Key with the convection still predominantly on the eastern side of the storm, do you think watches/warnings could/would go up for the Clearwater/Tampa area?

[cdavis6287]

Exactly what I have been saying!

[Aric Dunn]

that and just now per recon pressure down 996mb ...key note... very little movement. more relocations. you must realize each reformation and stall will delay landfall. 12z friday is very likely near cedar key. or just north.

Presuming it makes landfall in Cedar Key with the convection still predominantly on the eastern side of the storm, do you think watches/warnings could/would go up for the Clearwater/Tampa area?

its 283 miles to cedar key vs 246 miles to Apalachicola. roughly the same time frame just different track .. though the track is very subtle a little wobble or reformation here or there .. cedar key or west.. given the trend and progression.. the cedar key big bend area is most likely.

[wxsouth]

it needs to accelerate or reform .. to achieve roughly 16mi/hr to landfall by your time.. and its no where near close to that or on the right trajectory at the moment.. every hour it does not maintain a NNE to NE motion prolongs its time over water,,,

The center is tucked right up to the edge of the convection now, according to the P-3 radar. IF it stays in close proximity over the next few hours, should see a more steady NNE movement. Delaying of landfall is certainly possible by a few hours, by I'm not convinced landfall is getting pushed to Cedar Key.

It seems that as the shear vector becomes more SW with time and aligns with the storm movement, this is when the models begin to wrap convection and more quickly deepen the system. Maybe a 12-18 hour window where the storm could become more symmetric.

[Recurve]

Surprising to me not even a TS watch for St. Pete or Tampa. That said, finally a break in the rain right now.

[Aric Dunn]

so far recon track ene to NE.. expect a shift towards the big bend.

[Alyono]

Surprising to me not even a TS watch for St. Pete or Tampa. That said, finally a break in the rain right now.

I agree what that decision for no watches. I did not put any up for clients in Tampa either

[Aric Dunn]

it needs to accelerate or reform .. to achieve roughly 16mi/hr to landfall by your time.. and its no where near close to that or on the right trajectory at the moment.. every hour it does not maintain a NNE to NE motion prolongs its time over water,,,

The center is tucked right up to the edge of the convection now, according to the P-3 radar. IF it stays in close proximity over the next few hours, should see a more steady NNE movement. Delaying of landfall is certainly possible by a few hours, by I'm not convinced landfall is getting pushed to Cedar Key.

It seems that as the shear vector becomes more SW with time and aligns with the storm movement, this is when the models begin to wrap convection and more quickly deepen the system. Maybe a 12-18 hour window where the storm could become more symmetric.

agreed on the center being right on the edge. but it has clearly been following convection .. we need not focus on the models at this point. We know the general direction ... need to pay attention to the small fluctuations and dynamics. recon just showed another more ENE motion.. how many more before everyone realizes when the "NE" turns happens tomorrow it will be passed Apalachicola and heading towards big bend /cedar key. its pure physics at this point.. sorry.

[STRiZZY]

Surprising to me not even a TS watch for St. Pete or Tampa. That said, finally a break in the rain right now.

That's what I'm saying.




IF Cedar Key is where Hermine makes landfall then according to this map It would put Pinellas/Hillsborough counties within sustained Tropical Storm force winds.

[mph101]

It has been several hours since I looked at the satellite am currently am looking at the water vapor loop which clearly shows all the convection moving east/Northeast just like the heavy rains that were over Tampa bay and now moving off the east coast into the Atlantic. On the water vapor it clearly shows dry air from Panama City west and southwest into the Gulf. What am I missing here? How in the world is this storm moving north as NHC forecast.

[tallywx]

that and just now per recon pressure down 996mb ...key note... very little movement. more relocations. you must realize each reformation and stall will delay landfall. 12z friday is very likely near cedar key. or just north.

Presuming it makes landfall in Cedar Key with the convection still predominantly on the eastern side of the storm, do you think watches/warnings could/would go up for the Clearwater/Tampa area?

its 283 miles to cedar key vs 246 miles to Apalachicola. roughly the same time frame just different track .. though the track is very subtle a little wobble or reformation here or there .. cedar key or west.. given the trend and progression.. the cedar key big bend area is most likely.

Cedar Key landfall would require a due NE (45 degrees) motion from its current fix. That's a tall order. I'm thinking St Marks lighthouse to Aucilla River where it meets the Gulf (northern Taylor County). Still east enough to perhaps spare Tallahassee the right front quadrant.

[Aric Dunn]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

[Aric Dunn]

not only that.. most of the weather is going to push in south of the center.. tampa is not out of the woods in terms of storm surge ( center wont be near there) .. especially given the wind field..

[Alyono]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

It's not south of Apalachicola. It is still well SSW of them. About 86.8 as per recon

[JKingTampa]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

I'm expecting a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning here in Pinellas later today tbh.

[wxsouth]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

It's still almost two degrees west of Apalachicola's longitude (85W). Current longitude is 86.8W

[STRiZZY]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

I'm expecting a Tropical Storm Watch/Warning here in Pinellas later today tbh.

I have to agree. There was one for Colin but not this?

[Aric Dunn]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

It's not south of Apalachicola. It is still well SSW of them. About 86.8 as per recon

did I say south ? no I said nearly south.. also read my further comments..

[Aric Dunn]

hell it is already east of the forecast points.. and nearly straight south of Apalachicola. it would have to move nearly straight north the rest of the time to meet the forecast points... this of course disregarding inner dynamical issues..

It's still almost two degrees west of Apalachicola's longitude (85W). Current longitude is 86.8W

and still no NNE movement per recon.. and again.. inner dynamical issues will play a huge role right now. convection is currently affecting the center being pulled more ENE .. ill say it again. how many more eastward center fixes will it take to realize ..

[TropicalSailor]

Seems like a lot of ground covered on that last fix? Accelerating finally?