ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

latest recon fixes (3 of them) average motion NE not NNE .. every fix from this point on brings it farther east.. do the math. by 5am advisory it will be passing the eastern edge of the model consensus.. pretty straight forward. yes there is a trough and a weakness in the ridge.. but dont forget about the details..

[hurricaneCW]

How is it pulling east and missing NHC forecast points? Don't follow the blob because the center is clearly on the NW edge and it's moving in a general N to NNE direction. The only way this will change is if the center relocates closer to the convective shield.

[Aric Dunn]

landfall ( of course for me) between horseshoe beach and dekle beach.

[Aric Dunn]

expect another eastward jump of the center next recon pass. stair stepping as most know it..

[caneman]

On the last few Tampa Bay radar frames, looks like banding could be coming back.

Noticed that as well.. 11.5 inches of rain today in Largo,FL.. (by 8pm) Possibly made it to 1' by midnight..

I know. Its where I live. In 40 years. I've never seen rain like this. I've seen many roads and areas flooding that I'd assumed were flood proof.

[caneman]

Surprising to me not even a TS watch for St. Pete or Tampa. That said, finally a break in the rain right now.

I agree what that decision for no watches. I did not put any up for clients in Tampa either

Maybe should have. The beaches of Pinellas are more west than Anclote River which is the southern point of the cone. You can't justify using Anclote and not using Clearwater. No way, no how. In my experience, we've gotten T..S. in,either sustained or gusts on brush byes. We'll see.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

good morning gents. this is the hour to be on the board--when all the pros are here.
I am in Clearwater and we finally got a little break from the rain. at my house we got about 10.5 inches of rain yesterday. currently very light breeze, but not seeing any fast cloud movement. truly feels like the calm before the storm.
odd....no little frog peepers, owls, or even crickets. the critters know something is different this morning.
The stalls and stair steps have brought the likelihood of worsening conditions closer to Pinellas for sure. i expect a right shift by NHC, but merely to correct their path for the eastward ground covered, but they will likely maintain their trajectory thinking of nne to ne. possibly 11am they would shift trajectory to a more ne path if the stair stepping and center reformations continue up until then. but i think a faster fwd momentum will help to stabilize the center later this morning, especially as the weakening shear can finally permit a more symmetrical presentation.
And I agree with Aric that this is going to be to the far eastern side of the current model consensus. however, i also dont expect as far right as cedar key, but regardless, the worst of the storm will be to the right of wherever the center tracks anyway. that should necessitate at least ts warnings further down the coast a little further, to inlude pinellas county. i dont think hillsborough county would require them though, nor sarasota. --at least at this point. a more ene or e trajectory sustained for a few fixes would convince me otherwise though! but not expecting that.
thank you pros for being here despite the annoying novices at times! lol

[JKingTampa]

Is recon leaving or circling back?

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
100 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE CRAWLING NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 87.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Marineland Florida to South Santee River

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in the
Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 87.0 West. Hermine
has been moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (9 km/h) during
the past couple of hours, but should begin to move toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed soon. On the
forecast track, the center will be near the Florida coast in the
warning area Thursday night.

Preliminary reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to
36 hours, and Hermine is expected to be a hurricane by the time
landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning Thursday night. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Thursday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida through
Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of
the southeastern United States from southeast Georgia, central to
eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with local
amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday. These rains
may cause life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible overnight near the central
Florida coast. The tornado risk will increase through Thursday and
spread into north Florida and southeast Georgia.

[STRiZZY]

On the last few Tampa Bay radar frames, looks like banding could be coming back.

Noticed that as well.. 11.5 inches of rain today in Largo,FL.. (by 8pm) Possibly made it to 1' by midnight..

I know. Its where I live. In 40 years. I've never seen rain like this. I've seen many roads and areas flooding that I'd assumed were flood proof.

It was ts debby in 2012 that ironically hit Largo up for 11" as well in one day (was a record I believe). This seemed worse somehow yesterday than that.

[TropicalSailor]

Is recon leaving or circling back?

Don't think so. Should make a pass from the N

[caneman]

Noticed that as well.. 11.5 inches of rain today in Largo,FL.. (by 8pm) Possibly made it to 1' by midnight..

I know. Its where I live. In 40 years. I've never seen rain like this. I've seen many roads and areas flooding that I'd assumed were flood proof.

It was ts debby in 2012 that ironically hit Largo up for 11" as well in one day (was a record I believe). This seemed worse somehow yesterday than that.

It is worse. Didnt Debby take many days to accumulate that? We did 9.5 inches in roughly 12 or so hours. Had 6 inches in about 5 hours. We're not done yet either.

[JKingTampa]

Is recon leaving or circling back?

Don't think so. Should make a pass from the N

Yeah I see now.

[johngaltfla]

I've got to concur with Aric barring something drastic happening with the storm, Taylor County will probably be landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane. The next 12 hours will demonstrate that. She's getting her act together and unfortunately after 7" of rain at my location yesterday I fear another 6"+, if not more, is possible tonight and tomorrow as the storm winds up.

[STRiZZY]

I know. Its where I live. In 40 years. I've never seen rain like this. I've seen many roads and areas flooding that I'd assumed were flood proof.

It was ts debby in 2012 that ironically hit Largo up for 11" as well in one day (was a record I believe). This seemed worse somehow yesterday than that.

It is worse. Didnt Debby take many days to accumulate that? We did 9.5 inches in roughly 12 or so hours. Had 6 inches in about 5 hours. We're not done yet either.

Positive it was a 24hr period... Skip to the bottom of this article for Largo's rainfall total of over 12inches

http://www.tampabay.com/news/weather/tr ... ay/1237045

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...HERMINE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 86.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from Marineland Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. east
coast from north of South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to Destin
* Marineland to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Surf City

Interests along the United States east coast elsewhere in North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 86.6 West. Hermine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during
the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine
will be near the Florida coast in the warning area tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated, and Hermine is expected to
be a hurricane by the time landfall occurs.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane was 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area beginning tonight. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Friday
night and Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger
of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 hours along the
Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including
evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin to Indian Pass...1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka...4 to 7 feet
Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet
Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Cape Fear...1 to 3 feet

The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion
under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by
the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in
2017. This prototype graphic is available at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge

RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida
and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to
produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 10 inches
possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and
eastern North Carolina through Saturday. These rains may cause
life-threatening flash flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Friday
morning over north Florida and southeast Georgia. The tornado risk
will continue across the eastern CarolinaS from Friday morning into
Friday night.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I know. Its where I live. In 40 years. I've never seen rain like this. I've seen many roads and areas flooding that I'd assumed were flood proof.

It was ts debby in 2012 that ironically hit Largo up for 11" as well in one day (was a record I believe). This seemed worse somehow yesterday than that.

It is worse. Didnt Debby take many days to accumulate that? We did 9.5 inches in roughly 12 or so hours. Had 6 inches in about 5 hours. We're not done yet either.

wasn't it a February day in 2006 that we got like 17 in of rain over just 6 hours in a line across pinellas county from like TI to Feather Sound area? that was the record. the Bed Bath and Beyond had a roof cave in. at my work the parking lot flooded and many lost their vehicles...just floated into a stack. it was a ver unusual rain "training" event that set up with an approacing and passing front.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm liking the 00z hwrf as far as landfall location.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

the rain rates we were getting yesterday morning were certainly on par with that february event. thank god it didn't maintain all day like it was raining from 5 to 10am!!

[caneman]

It was ts debby in 2012 that ironically hit Largo up for 11" as well in one day (was a record I believe). This seemed worse somehow yesterday than that.

It is worse. Didnt Debby take many days to accumulate that? We did 9.5 inches in roughly 12 or so hours. Had 6 inches in about 5 hours. We're not done yet either.

wasn't it a February day in 2006 that we got like 17 in of rain over just 6 hours in a line across pinellas county from like TI to Feather Sound area? that was the record. the Bed Bath and Beyond had a roof cave in. at my work the parking lot flooded and many lost their vehicles...just floated into a stack. it was a ver unusual rain "training" event that set up with an approacing and passing front.

Anyone have a link? I'd forgotten about that.