ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

I'm liking the 00z hwrf as far as landfall location.

Where is that.

[caneman]

It's picked up speed to 11 mph now so hopefully that keeps up or increases and we get this outta here.

[marionstorm]

Caneman:

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/02/04/South ... e_is.shtml

https://www.google.com/search?q=tampa+b ... lapse+rain

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gusty winds becoming a bit stronger now here in St Pete just north of where the Pier used to be. I think all the additional rain on top of yesterday's plus the surge and high tide could bring water levels up.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm liking the 00z hwrf as far as landfall location.

Where is that.

Just east of Apalachicola. Apalachee Bay Area.

NHC advisory just now also shifting a tad east it seems and notating hurricane strength right at landfall.

[TropicalSailor]

It's picked up speed to 11 mph now so hopefully that keeps up or increases and we get this outta here.

This next recon fix should give us a really good idea.

[TropicalSailor]

Landfall prediction based on my OWN opinion.

30°00'00.0"N 84°12'00.0"W

[caneman]

I'm liking the 00z hwrf as far as landfall location.

Where is that.

Just east of Apalachicola. Apalachee Bay Area.

NHC advisory just now also shifting a tad east it seems and notating hurricane strength right at landfall.

Honestly landfall point doesn't matter as much, other than surge. Everything east will get the weather. Glad it's moving faster, hopefully points North won't see the rainfall we've had.

[caneman]

It's picked up speed to 11 mph now so hopefully that keeps up or increases and we get this outta here.

This next recon fix should give us a really good idea.

That's based on the 5 am update. Once they pick up speed, they don't usually slow unless something changes in dynamics and forecast, I think they can usually predict that pretty well.

[TropicalSailor]

It's picked up speed to 11 mph now so hopefully that keeps up or increases and we get this outta here.

This next recon fix should give us a really good idea.

That's based on the 5 am update. Once they pick up speed, they don't usually slow unless something changes in dynamics and forecast, I think they can usually predict that pretty well.

I mean in terms of NNE Or NE

[StormHunter72]

almost looks east northeast but it is wobbles.

[tolakram]

Small shift east. Remember to pay attention to the cone, not the track line.



track archive graphics: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[tolakram]

IR loop. Appears the cloud tops are all east of the LLC now.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[tolakram]

Shear map from earlier.

[JKingTampa]

Hermine's blob definitely has continued on its path towards the Bay Area.

[tolakram]

Hermine's blob definitely has continued on its path towards the Bay Area.

Those are the upper clouds getting blown to the east. Deceiving when we can't see the lower levels.

[tolakram]

I believe the center of the storm is near the left side of the blob.

latest

[Alyono]

pressure again falling at about 1 mb per hour

We have have TS winds NW of the center. Significant structural improvement

[tolakram]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 010855
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine
and measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds
are a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane
hunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On
this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest
pressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and
brings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast
continues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model
IVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the
global models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the
eastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of
the forecast period, most of the global models suggest
strengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an
extratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast.

Hermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a
recent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that
the cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020
degrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a
mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the
cyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight
increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely
the multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3
days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little
while it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the
GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.8N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 30.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0600Z 34.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/0600Z 36.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z 38.0N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0600Z 38.0N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

Wind speed probability map.

[Alyono]

Regarding the cone, I do not recommend paying attention to it as it has nothing to do with the forecast uncertainty, nor does it have anything to do with the impact region.

The wind speed probabilities are a better thing to pay attention to, though those also are not perfect