ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Here's the rainfall potential map as well. It's supposed to go extratropical and I'm not sure if, when spinning off the NC coast, this is going to be dumping a lot of rain inland or not.

[GCANE]

A large area of dry air is setting in over Mobile Bay.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

Here is a current Skew-T
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

Looks like it will persist 18 hrs out especially in the 500 to 400 mb region.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

[Emmett_Brown]

TS winds appear to extend quite far to the SE per recon. I kind of wish they would fly a bit further east to measure the extent of the wind field. I guess we have bouys out there to fill in that data though.

[StormHunter72]

All of the weather is east of the "center" so I agree with you cone does not matter.

[GCANE]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1610.html

[caneman]

TS winds appear to extend quite far to the SE per recon. I kind of wish they would fly a bit further east to measure the extent of the wind field. I guess we have bouys out there to fill in that data though.

Agreed, t.s. wind field map, show a likelihood of 40 to 50 percent chance of t.s. winds along pinellas beaches. With more than 11 inches of rain fallen and another 4 or 5 exptected, it wouldn't have hurt them to include St. Pete and Clearwater with watches, not Tampa though. If we do get T.S.,winds I expect some trees to go down with the saturated grounds.

[TropicalSailor]

NDBC
Location: 26.007N 85.648W
Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2016 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (180°) at 36.9 kt gusting to 48.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 16.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Average Wave Period: 7.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSW (210°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.59 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 85.1 F


Bouy SE of storm.

[tigerz3030]

So Hermine is still getting her act together and I think landfall is southern Taylor county. With that being said, cedar key and everything NE will get a lot of this storm because of being on the east side. Next 24-36 hours is going to be interesting. Be safe everyone and watch out for tornadoes

[caneman]

pressure again falling at about 1 mb per hour

We have have TS winds NW of the center. Significant structural improvement

If it did hit hurricane would you expect more of a tug North,or N.E. or no change at all? Certainl the t.s windfield would expand correct?

[NDG]

Pressure down to 994 mb per the latest VDM.

[caneman]

Any chance that LLC gets pulled up under that convection. Lord I hope not. Then it would really take off.

[caneman]

Pressure down to 994 mb per the latest VDM.

Assuming winds followed wouldn't that be about 70 mph?

[JtSmarts]

Conditions are not absolutely ideal but Hermine is now taking advantage. With about 20-24 more hours I definitely think a pressure of 980 or so is possible.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 994 mb per the latest VDM.

Assuming winds followed wouldn't that be about 70 mph?

Close to it but so far recon has not found any surface winds that strong yet, it takes a while for those winds to make it to the ground.
64 knots at flight level on the latest pass south of the coc.

100700 2508N 08606W 8395 01579 0058 +181 +155 217063 064 034 004 00

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 6:07am EDT:

[NDG]

Getting stronger, that's for sure, 71 knots at flight level on the latest pass found, SE of the COC.

101600 2536N 08529W 8431 01543 0057 +177 +173 214068 071 047 015 00
101630 2537N 08527W 8399 01577 0060 +175 +173 212063 064 053 020 00

[JtSmarts]

That looks to support 55kt at least and maybe 60 if they are feeling generous.

[Alyono]

looks like a 55 kt TS

[ronjon]

Crapola...think the coast from Pinellas to citrus county will see 40-50 mph winds now with three to five feet of storm surge. As I thought last night, models shifted slightly east. Wouldn't be surprised with another slight shift east. This stronger trend is worrying.

[SouthDadeFish]

The storm now appears to be steadily intensifying. Recon findings show the central pressure is decreasing and the convective pattern is beginning to improve. I think most importantly for the system is the increase in winds on the NW side of the circulation. This should allow moisture fluxes to increase on that side and convection to build. Based on the latest recon findings I would estimate the current intensity to be around 55 knots. It should be noted that strong winds exist well south and east from the center of the storm, so don't just focus on the center. However, the largest threats will be the storm surge and heavy rainfall.