ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[terrapintransit]

What does this suggest??

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.

[drewschmaltz]

What does this suggest??

Well, that converts to a surface pressure of 1000 mb for reference.

[GCANE]

What does this suggest??

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.

Intensification

[Extratropical94]

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

Most impressive thing IMO is that Hermine is actually moving away from that buoy but the pressure keeps dropping.

[NDG]

Nice radar shot from the NOAA recon, nice banding developing around the coc.

[Nimbus]

Really starting to spin up now so we will have to watch the windfields.
The outflow north of the system is expanding north and west without as much restriction so I'm expecting a more symmetric storm at landfall.
Currently most of the convection is pushed off to the east of the center but the center track has been solid NNE.
Models are all in close agreement about the landfall of those strong core winds being closer to St George island than Cedar key although St George island gets the weak side of the storm.
Wind field from a 969 mb Hurricane could still bring tropical storm force winds as far east as the Pinellas beaches though.

[ronjon]

So based on the recon fixes during the past 4 hours, Hermine is almost moving on a NE heading, based on the calculations below with an average speed of 12.5 mph.

Code: Select all

Point 1:   
25 56 00N
 , 
087 04 00W
Point 2:   
26 40 00N
 , 
086 20 00W
Distance:   109.5 km (to 4 SF*)
Initial bearing:   041°42′50″
Final bearing:   042°02′20″

Yeah quite worrisome..its been moving nearly due NE now. if it continued, landfall further east between Taylor County and cedar key.

[caneman]

Really starting to spin up now so we will have to watch the windfields.
The outflow north of the system is expanding north and west without as much restriction so I'm expecting a more symmetric storm at landfall.
Currently most of the convection is pushed off to the east of the center but the center track has been solid NNE.
Models are all in close agreement about the landfall of those strong core winds being closer to St George island than Cedar key although St George island gets the weak side of the storm.
Wind field from a 969 mb Hurricane could still bring tropical storm force winds as far east as the Pinellas beaches though.

Not entirely true. Did you,see what Ndg posted? Northeast for last 4 hours. That could mean Cedar Key or a bit north is in play.

[NDG]

Really starting to spin up now so we will have to watch the windfields.
The outflow north of the system is expanding north and west without as much restriction so I'm expecting a more symmetric storm at landfall.
Currently most of the convection is pushed off to the east of the center but the center track has been solid NNE.
Models are all in close agreement about the landfall of those strong core winds being closer to St George island than Cedar key although St George island gets the weak side of the storm.
Wind field from a 969 mb Hurricane could still bring tropical storm force winds as far east as the Pinellas beaches though.

No question that Pinellas county will see TS force winds even if it stays at this same strength, as recon has found those winds more than 100 miles east of the coc.

[GCANE]

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

Most impressive thing IMO is that Hermine is actually moving away from that buoy but the pressure keeps dropping.

Exactly.

I know RI is subjective, but one criteria, if I remember correctly, is a drop of 25 mb in 24 hrs or roughly 1 mb per hr.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

[caneman]

Will NHC go ahead and extend watches down through Pinellas and if so when? Anyone have thoughts?

[Alyono]

That buoy just SE of the CoC is really taking a dive.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

Most impressive thing IMO is that Hermine is actually moving away from that buoy but the pressure keeps dropping.

Exactly.

I know RI is subjective, but one criteria, if I remember correctly, is a drop of 25 mb in 24 hrs or roughly 1 mb per hr.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

It is 42 mb for 24 hours, not 25. 1.75mb per hour

[ronjon]

Well, if that holds true and continues thay way and my math is correct that would put it just over 100 miles off my coast line. Is NHC going to go ahead and play chicken?

Caneman..if this heading holds and the storm continues to expand and strengthen, I think the NHC would have no choice but to extend the TS warnings to cover Tampa Bay area.

[NDG]

Will NHC go ahead and extend watches down through Pinellas and if so when? Anyone have thoughts?

If the current heading continues I wouldn't doubt if they extend hurricane watch and or warnings down to Pinellas County as they could see close to hurricane force winds in gusts, IMO.

[txwatcher91]

Now down to 993mb on most recent pass by recon and center moved N or slightly NNW from previous fix. Looks like it is either wobbling this direction or maybe starting a new movement (some models turn it due N today).

[OntarioEggplant]

It's amazing how every phase through the center has it down 1 mb

[NDG]

Based on the latest fix it looks like Hermine did a jog to the north, so maybe back to a NNE heading over the next few hours.

[caneman]

Well, if that holds true and continues thay way and my math is correct that would put it just over 100 miles off my coast line. Is NHC going to go ahead and play chicken?

Caneman..if this heading holds and the storm continues to expand and strengthen, I think the NHC would have no choice but to extend the TS warnings to cover Tampa Bay area.

My frustration is that they can be slow to react. Based on my logic and a few others yesterday, pinellas should have been included yesterday. If you got t.s. winds at Anclote, you're most certainly going to have them on pinellas beaches since they protrude out west. I mean if NWS is saying expect mid 40's gusts... Oh well. Let's see what happens.

[Alyono]

outflow expanding to the NW quad. This should be a hurricane in a few hours

[ronjon]

Now down to 993mb on most recent pass by recon and center moved N or slightly NNW from previous fix. Looks like it is either wobbling this direction or maybe starting a new movement (some models turn it due N today).

LOL...wobble watching has commenced!