ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OntarioEggplant]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

Not yet, but it could be by 2 PM

[GCANE]

Not a bad poleward outflow channel

[TropicalSailor]

Looks like its tugging NNE at the moment. Notice how the deep convection is not moving as much east. Recon shows a storm trying to accelerate a bit and today will be the day for sure to see if we can get this to a cane. I think its very likely it will be at landfall. Still thinking Apalachicola. (or just east of there)

You guys are gonna ride that Apalachicola train to the finish.

[NDG]

No hurricane yet.

7:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 1
Location: 27.1°N 86.2°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[caneman]

Ok it must have just been a jog back to more northerly now.

[northjaxpro]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

Good morning NJaxPro. It's looking to me like cedar key or just north for landfall which means that brings St Augustine really back into play. Do you agree?

Yeah, I always pinpointed Dixie County ad landfall, but it could come in at.Taylor County .

Hermine looking impressive now. Really beginning to wondet.howclose this may get to Cat 2 status before landfall. It looks to make a run at that, but hopefully rhe cyclone will run out of time and open warm water to prevent that from happening.

Yes, all.of North Florida is going to see.significant impacts tigerz3030.
Yeah

[J_J99]

4 MB in 3 hours. Not quite RI but decent intensification

I hope the people of Florida are prepared for (what is looking like) the first Hurricane since Wilma. Hermine still has a lot more warm and hot waters of the Gulf to go through with shear loosening up, I would say Cat 2 is not out of the question.

[PerfectStorm]

No one has talked about the WNW movement the last couple hours. Temporary? Thoughts?

Hi Caneman - did you mean ENE? I haven't seen a WNW motion.

[northjaxpro]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

Not yet, but it could be by 2 PM

Agree. Although it could be more like at 11 am

[northjaxpro]

Based on that latest report, we may have a hurricane now. It is right on the threshold right now for sure.

Not yet, but it could be by 2 PM

Agree. Although it could be sooner, more like at 11 am

[Emmett_Brown]

Per the latest advisory winds extend up to 140 mi from the center (mostly E and SE per recon). Last night at 11 ET it was 125 miles, so it is gradually expanding. It will be interesting to see how big the wind field gets today. I remember NHC expanding TS warnings in the past due to the size of the wind field, right up to landfall, so they should pull the trigger if they think they need to.

[caneman]

Yes, I did. Sorry. It's back to more NNE now though.

[Noles2016]

Ok it must have just been a jog back to more northerly now.

5am position: 26.4/86.6
8am position: 27.1/86.2

[thundercam96]

I feel like Daytona Beach is in the clear...

[caneman]

Ok it must have just been a jog back to more northerly now.

5am position: 26.4/86.6
8am position: 27.1/86.2

I,had based that on a 7 am fix.

[NDG]

Latest radar loop from Tampa.

[txwatcher91]

Convection starting to wrap on north and south sides now. This could strengthen to sub 980mb by landfall if it gains a nice symmetrical appearance.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like worst is over for Tampa Bay. Incoming Echelons are now going north..North East instead of east.

[GCANE]

Interesting, its totally pushing that dry air slot out of the way that I talked about earlier over Mobile Bay.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

This wasn't what GFS had forecasted.
May see some noteworthy changes in the next model runs.

[caneman]

[quote="SEASON_CANCELED"]Looks like worst is over for Tampa Bay. Incoming Echelons are now going north..North East instead of east.[/quo

Good!! Just some wind now and surf.