ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

If the strengthening trend continues I could see this sub 980mb by landfall as a strong cat 1 and an outside chance at cat 2 if it becomes more symmetrical the next 6-12 hours. This could very well be a storm that strengthens all the way until landfall.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

it would not be a big deal in my opinion. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is according to the NHC and its nothing floridians in that area are not already prepared for. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tolakram]

live visible as the sun comes up.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

[northjaxpro]

I feel like Daytona Beach is in the clear...

I would be very mindful .to not make such a declaration. Although Volusia County may not be under watches or warnings at this time, but that still does not guarantee that you get some impacts. Remember, this is a large storm and the tropical storm wind field will be only expand across the area. Also, as.the squalls move through the region after landfall during the next 24 hours, there is still the possity of tornadoes which can spin up without warnings. Yes, even in the areas just outside the watch or warning areas.

[tolakram]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

[OuterBanker]

When I went to bed last night it was forecast up the middle of the state. Now it's back to along the coast. In fact latest models have it right over the outer banks.
But, I'm not worried. Wxman several days ago said that it wasn't going to be a Carolina problem.
Wxman I'm gonna hold you to that.

[NDG]

Looks like worst is over for Tampa Bay. Incoming Echelons are now going north..North East instead of east.

Not true, more squalls will be moving into the Tampa Bay area as the day goes on, look at the radar loop and per a buoy 30 miles west of Sarasota tropical force wind gusts is being reported already.

[tigerz3030]

live visible as the sun comes up.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

IR

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=yellow

Based on those images the CoC is getting stronger and everything is starting to wrap around it. Easily should make Cat 1 and I'm starting to worry possible Cat 2 by landfall. Just my opinion.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like worst is over for Tampa Bay. Incoming Echelons are now going north..North East instead of east.

Not true, more squalls will be moving into the Tampa Bay area as the day goes on, look at the radar loop and per a buoy 30 miles west of Sarasota tropical force wind gusts is being reported already.

The energy on radar looks to be shifting north.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

NHC's location and where all the energy actually is

[tropicwatch]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

From last VDM: PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL MORE CIRCULAR 18 NM DIA OPEN W
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST SEMICIRCLE

Does this not mean an eyewall is forming?

[NDG]

Looks like worst is over for Tampa Bay. Incoming Echelons are now going north..North East instead of east.

Not true, more squalls will be moving into the Tampa Bay area as the day goes on, look at the radar loop and per a buoy 30 miles west of Sarasota tropical force wind gusts is being reported already.

The energy on radar looks to be shifting north.

The squalls as a whole are moving eastward towards the west coast of FL.

[NDG]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

From last VDM: PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL MORE CIRCULAR 18 NM DIA OPEN W
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST SEMICIRCLE

Does this not mean an eyewall is forming?

Yes.

[tolakram]

NHC's location and where all the energy actually is

How are you determining where the energy actually is?

Recon: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

shows wind on the east and north side of the system, the typical strong side.

[txwatcher91]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

NHC's location and where all the energy actually is

It will be a big deal as a strengthening category 1 hurricane would cause quite a few downed trees, power outages, storm surge and other structural damage. Furthermore the recon data indicated an eyewall was organizing and only open to the west. If this storm wraps up and becomes more symmetrical it could easily become a cat 2 hurricane. The LLC is stacked nicely otherwise this wouldn't be strengthening.

[NDG]

it would not be a big deal. Its LLC is completely uncoupling and not where its energy is. I don't see how it has any time to get its act together...even if it became a cat one we are talking about a weak wind event with very little rain.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

What are you basing this information on? Did I miss an observation past the VDM that indicated a forming eyewall?

NHC's location and where all the energy actually is

Recon found tropical force winds more near 100 miles SE of the COC.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Final call for Hermine before Florida is moderate strengthening through 24 hours followed by landfall and weakening. Landfall intensity call is between 983-987 milligars with winds around 85-90 miles per hour. I then suspect it will rake the GA/SC/NC area as a strong tropical storm before passing over water and beginning the transition to extratropical, then slowing down and possibly looping south of Long Island.

[bg1]

If this does end up stronger than expected (let's say 75 kts), what effect would this have on the track?

[txwatcher91]

I guess we can put to rest the theory now that models are wrong and this is likely to make landfall along or south of Tampa...

On a serious note residents need to make sure they are prepared for this storm. A hurricane at landfall looks increasingly likely and it could possibly be stronger than currently forecast also. A high cat 1 or low 2 that is strengthening at landfall can be pretty bad.

[caneman]

I guess we can put to rest the theory now that models are wrong and this is likely to make landfall along or south of Tampa...

On a serious note residents need to make sure they are prepared for this storm. A hurricane at landfall looks increasingly likely and it could possibly be stronger than currently forecast also. A high cat 1 or low 2 that is strengthening at landfall can be pretty bad.

I'm pretty sure only 1 person ever said that and they stopped posting. So, this first part of your comment is really kind of irrelevant.