ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7601 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:30 am

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7602 Postby marionstorm » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:30 am

When will the next plane be in to give us a Vortex message?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7603 Postby syfr » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:30 am

OuterBanker wrote:When I went to bed last night it was forecast up the middle of the state. Now it's back to along the coast. In fact latest models have it right over the outer banks.
But, I'm not worried. Wxman several days ago said that it wasn't going to be a Carolina problem


Make sure to tell the Ocracoke Cedar Island ferry captain that tomorrow. 8-)

Lite squalls over the sound this morning. The outer banks sure need rain.
Last edited by syfr on Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7604 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:30 am

txwatcher91 wrote:I guess we can put to rest the theory now that models are wrong and this is likely to make landfall along or south of Tampa... :roll:

On a serious note residents need to make sure they are prepared for this storm. A hurricane at landfall looks increasingly likely and it could possibly be stronger than currently forecast also. A high cat 1 or low 2 that is strengthening at landfall can be pretty bad.


That is the huge concern right now.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7605 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:33 am

marionstorm wrote:When will the next plane be in to give us a Vortex message?


Flight two is scheduled for 13:30Z which is one hour from now.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7606 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:33 am

It definitely looks like it will continue to intensify until landfall, convection is beginning to swing around north of the center. Could make a run for a strong cat 1 or weak 2...surge may be higher than expected.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7607 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:33 am


Great post. Also tells me where she is heading. Prob gonna get tugged in a general Northerly direction.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7608 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:34 am

My concern for FL residents is this, most have prepared for a tropical storm or low cat 1 hurricane. Hermine is now taking on a classic "fist" shape on satellite, shear continues to decrease, outflow is expanding and it's becoming more symmetrical. These all point to continued steady to quick strengthening today and up to landfall. A cat 2 is very possible imo and many would not have time to prepare and/or evacuate if necessary.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7609 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:36 am

caneman wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:I guess we can put to rest the theory now that models are wrong and this is likely to make landfall along or south of Tampa... :roll:

On a serious note residents need to make sure they are prepared for this storm. A hurricane at landfall looks increasingly likely and it could possibly be stronger than currently forecast also. A high cat 1 or low 2 that is strengthening at landfall can be pretty bad.


I'm pretty sure only 1 person ever said that and they stopped posting. So, really kind of irrelevant.


It's important to note since some new posters were doubting or questioning the NHC. I bring it up because the NHC is great at what they do and while not perfect their expertise combined with use of all the tools they have available makes them the go to source for these scenarios.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7610 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:36 am

deltadog03 wrote:

Great post. Also tells me where she is heading. Prob gonna get tugged in a general Northerly direction.


I may owe someone a steak dinner. Cedar Key looks,out now and Appalachacola looks about right. Although yesterday the said a N.E. turn and today the say NNE through landfall.
Last edited by caneman on Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7611 Postby terrapintransit » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:37 am

Feeding off that hot water..




txwatcher91 wrote:My concern for FL residents is this, most have prepared for a tropical storm or low cat 1 hurricane. Hermine is now taking on a classic "fist" shape on satellite, shear continues to decrease, outflow is expanding and it's becoming more symmetrical. These all point to continued steady to quick strengthening today and up to landfall. A cat 2 is very possible imo and many would not have time to prepare and/or evacuate if necessary.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7612 Postby caneman » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:38 am

txwatcher91 wrote:
caneman wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:I guess we can put to rest the theory now that models are wrong and this is likely to make landfall along or south of Tampa... :roll:

On a serious note residents need to make sure they are prepared for this storm. A hurricane at landfall looks increasingly likely and it could possibly be stronger than currently forecast also. A high cat 1 or low 2 that is strengthening at landfall can be pretty bad.


I'm pretty sure only 1 person ever said that and they stopped posting. So, really kind of irrelevant.


It's important to note since some new posters were doubting or questioning the NHC. I bring it up because the NHC is great at what they do and while not perfect their expertise combined with use of all the tools they have available makes them the go to source for these scenarios.


I'm pretty sure everyone is aware of the newbie people I disagree with but to each his own.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7613 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:38 am

txwatcher91 wrote:My concern for FL residents is this, most have prepared for a tropical storm or low cat 1 hurricane. Hermine is now taking on a classic "fist" shape on satellite, shear continues to decrease, outflow is expanding and it's becoming more symmetrical. These all point to continued steady to quick strengthening today and up to landfall. A cat 2 is very possible imo and many would not have time to prepare and/or evacuate if necessary.


This is where the benefits of the new storm surge guidance comes into play. It's already accounting for a storm being a bit stronger than forecast. Hopefully the people making calls have been using it properly.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon Discussion

#7614 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:38 am

Looks like next flight starts at 9:30 EDT, 13:30Z. Did I get that right? I always screw up reading the recon flight times.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 01/0000Z A. 01/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z
B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1309A CYCLONE
C. 31/2245Z C. 01/1330Z
D. 26.ON 87.4W D. 27.7N 86.0W
E. 31/2330Z TO 01/0130Z E. 01/1400Z TO 01/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -TEAL 72
A. 01/2330Z,02/0230Z,0530Z A. 02/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
B. AFXXX 1409A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1509A CYCLONE
C. 01/2230Z C. 02/0730Z
D. 29.0N 85.0W D. 30.2N 83.2W
E. 01/2300Z TO 02/0530Z E. 02/0800Z TO 02/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: FLIGHT ONE ABOVE IS A RESOURCES PERMITTING
FIGHT WHICH WAS ADDED.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7615 Postby thundercam96 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:39 am

northjaxpro wrote:
thundercam96 wrote:I feel like Daytona Beach is in the clear...


I would be very mindful .to not make such a declaration. Although Volusia County may not be under watches or warnings at this time, but that still does not guarantee that you get some impacts. Remember, this is a large storm and the tropical storm wind field will be only expand across the area. Also, as.the squalls move through the region after landfall during the next 24 hours, there is still the possity of tornadoes which can spin up without warnings. Yes, even in the areas just outside the watch or warning areas.


The reason I made that statement, is because it seems as if we will miss the main effects of it. Forecasting 20 mph winds, and the local colleges are still planning for class tomorrow. Business as usual unfortunately.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7616 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:42 am

caneman wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:

Great post. Also tells me where she is heading. Prob gonna get tugged in a general Northerly direction.


I may owe someone a steak dinner. Cedar Key looks,out now and Appalachacola looks about right.

Nah. :) This is a place to get so much great info. Shoot it's amazing how these things work and don't. Lol
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7617 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:44 am

Still not much convection on the western flank and you'll need convection to transport some of the higher winds to the surface there so I'm feeling much better here just West of PCB.

Looks like the highest winds will be directly North, NE, East and SE wherever the Center eventually crosses the Coast, you won't have to travel too far West to just have some weak Gales.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7618 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:45 am

Don't let the quiet wx over Tampa Bay area fool you, I have been seeing a lot of people even on TV thinking that the worst is gone. As Hermine tracks NNE the worst wx is yet to come as sampled the recon earlier this morning the area circled in orange where plenty of tropical force winds were found.

Image
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7619 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:45 am

For those in the path who have never experienced a cat 1 hurricane strengthening as it makes landfall, let me tell you...it is NOT a walk in the park. Especially if the area hasn't been hit in a long time and you have numerous trees in the vicinity. In 1995...we stayed home and rode out Hurricane Erin here just to the East of Pensacola. WAs a cat 1 and strengthened to about 100mph just as she came onshore. We had 15 or more trees down on our property..and brush up to our knees ( limbs, leaves just piled up as far as you could see) The worst thing...we were without power for 10 days because it took that long to clear the downed trees for the power trucks to even get in and start to repair the lines and poles. You guys in the path be safe.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7620 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:46 am

txwatcher91 wrote:My concern for FL residents is this, most have prepared for a tropical storm or low cat 1 hurricane. Hermine is now taking on a classic "fist" shape on satellite, shear continues to decrease, outflow is expanding and it's becoming more symmetrical. These all point to continued steady to quick strengthening today and up to landfall. A cat 2 is very possible imo and many would not have time to prepare and/or evacuate if necessary.


Exactly. Great post. I am really concerned for those in the hurricane warning area.in the Big Bend region. Hope they prepared for the worse. We say that all the time, but it is so important to plan for worst case scenarios. Hermine is intensifying at a decent rate this morning and it sure looks like the cyclone may end up.being stronger than the NHC had indicated the last couple of days.

But we had models earlier showing this potential for.a rathet strong hurricane in Apalachee Bay. So it is possible to see Hermine ramp into close to a Cat 2 storm. I hope Hermine is running out of time for this before landfalll
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