ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look pretty good on satellite and microwave. Slightly concerning to see an inner-core forming already. I think chances of a hurricane at landfall are quite likely at this time. I would think the odds of a landfall intensity of 70-75 knots are increasing, but I would definitely trust the NHC's opinion over my own. My concern for storm surge is growing since this part of FL is very prone to surge.

[SunnyThoughts]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

Just read on another board that recon is wheels up in about 10 minutes...not sure it's a fact, just what I read.

[NDG]

still very surprised there are no watches out for tampa area given the extent of the eastern band.. they will likely get at least minimal TS.. but oh well..

Mindboggling why no warnings have gone up for Tampa Bay.
Buoy just 50 miles WSW of St Pete is reporting wind gusts close to 60 mph already.

Conditions at 42022 as of
(7:30 am CDT)
1230 GMT on 09/01/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Salinity Salinity (SAL): 33.59 psu


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42022

[canefan]

Watching the radar loop it appears that the center is moving due north with maybe even a very slight jog NNW.

[SouthDadeFish]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

For what it's worth, the global hawk is flying around right now dropping sondes. There could be some awesome research opportunities with this storm from all the data collected.

[pcolaman]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

[artist]

They show surge from Eastpoint, Carabelle and Dog Island (north west) down south to Hermosa Springs

[tolakram]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

Just read on another board that recon is wheels up in about 10 minutes...not sure it's a fact, just what I read.

I believe that is correct. 3 hour fixes, next flight at 13:30Z which is 9 minutes from this post.

[pcolaman]

Watching the radar loop it appears that the center is moving due north with maybe even a very slight jog NNW.

I was thinking the same thing !

[Aric Dunn]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

For what it's worth, the global hawk is flying around right now dropping sondes. There could be some awesome research opportunities with this storm from all the data collected.

yeah just saw that. to the future of recon

[canefan]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

so no recon for 3 hours... surprised they are not on continuous missions.

Just read on another board that recon is wheels up in about 10 minutes...not sure it's a fact, just what I read.

maybe another non tasked flight. we shall see. would be nice

[tropicwatch]

Nice blow up of convection north of the center.

[pcolaman]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

I saw the shift and was thinking that with the expansion to the west and north-west what's causing the storm to tilt towards the West just an opinion

[Aric Dunn]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

very likely just cyclonic loops do to convection building in the north and nw side likely to see a few of these happen.

[NDG]

Watching the radar loop it appears that the center is moving due north with maybe even a very slight jog NNW.

Is hard to say when the radar is just catching the top of the clouds because it is still so far away from radar site, we have to wait for the recon.

[Blow_Hard]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

I believe mentioned earlier that the due north motion might be temporary due to strengthening on the nort and northwest quadrants. The overall movement will likely continue to be NE...I live in Panama City and we are expecting very minor impacts...1"-2" rain and no tropical storm force winds according to the local TV mets. I am happy to hear that because CFB is on tonight and I won't have to worry about losing power or cable.

[Stormcenter]

I noticed that too but maybe it's just a wobble.

Watching the radar loop it appears that the center is moving due north with maybe even a very slight jog NNW.

[pcolaman]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

very likely just cyclonic loops do to convection building in the north and nw side likely to see a few of these happen.

Thank Arun . Just hoping not a trend.