ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pcolaman]

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

very likely just cyclonic loops do to convection building in the north and nw side likely to see a few of these happen.

Thank Arun . Just hoping not a trend.

Aric sry lol

[Aric Dunn]

image from an hour ago.... 3/4 of an eye wall.. recon will likely find a hurricane.

[cdavis6287]

If I had to guess and I've been right all along i might add, it will consolidate more on the N, NW side and strengthen even more. My guess is 80 to 85mph hurricane on landfall. I think it will treck a tad more east than the projected path shows as well. Looking sa landfall around 20 miles north of Cedar Key.

[MississippiWx]

Good morning! I have been watching the latest frames on the satellite and does look like it is expanding to the nw and to the west of the storm. What I have seen tho is that it looks like it's on more or a northward track with some adjustments or jogs to the nnw. Just an observation I have noticed. Anyone else see this?

Exactly what I just posted, only I was referencing the radar vs satellite.

I saw the shift and was thinking that with the expansion to the west and north-west what's causing the storm to tilt towards the West just an opinion

Hermine will likely continue with erratic movement as the core attempts to organize. Overall movement should be off to the North and NNE.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Alright, lets go back, to doing our first vortex guess!

I will go with 989mb and 61kt SFMRs, with a peak FL wind of 60kt for the first VORTEX. Anyone else?

[Aric Dunn]

yep recon is in the air

[caneman]

still very surprised there are no watches out for tampa area given the extent of the eastern band.. they will likely get at least minimal TS.. but oh well..

Mindboggling why no warnings have gone up for Tampa Bay.
Buoy just 50 miles WSW of St Pete is reporting wind gusts close to 60 mph already.

Conditions at 42022 as of
(7:30 am CDT)
1230 GMT on 09/01/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Salinity Salinity (SAL): 33.59 psu


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42022

Yeah, it ticks me off. How do you have watches in,the western panhandle and not in pinellas? We're on the strong side. Especially bad since we had 12 inches of rain and any t.s. winds will likey fall some trees. I hope they get it right in the 11 am update but not holding my breathe.

[deltadog03]

I think,especially in the short term, your going to see more of a North direction. Especially as the storms try to wrap around and tug on it a bit.

[BRweather]

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 01/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z
B. AFXXX 1309A CYCLONE
C. 01/1330Z
D. 27.7N 86.0W
E. 01/1400Z TO 01/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

This will include 3 fixes on the center for the ones asking about recon.

Air Force will be out there till approximately 4:30 CDT

[MississippiWx]

I think,especially in the short term, your going to see more of a North direction. Especially as the storms try to wrap around and tug on it a bit.

Agreed.

[HeeBGBz]

I was sampling the winds at earth.nullschool.net. Right near the center on the east side said 84 mph. Don't know what level that was but thought I would mention it.

[Steve]

NHC Director Knabb just said please, PLEASE heed evacuation orders due to storm surge.

As I recall, these are some of the most surge prone areas in the country

They are. There fortunately isn't much population in those areas on the coast and you don't see many bigger cities until you get inland to about Gainesville or Ocala. It's generally not the same as Pensacola Beach to Panama City Beach where you have a lot of construction at the shore with instead more nature preserves and wildlife management areas to absorb a lot of surge. Population clockwise down the coast from south of Tallahassee, you have Wakulla County (32k), Jefferson County (14k), Taylor County (23k), Lafayette County (9k), Dixie County (16k) and Levy County (40k). Citrus and Hernando is where you start to pick up more population. There are a lot of summer homes and beach houses/camps, but there's a lot of nature all throughout those areas. For anyone who hasn't been to that part of the state, there are a lot of rivers (Aucilla River & Suwannee watershed included) that run through streams and estuaries out to the sea.

The caution is that whole area is full of trees. So caution to anyone with trees near your homes. It doesn't look like a lot of rain flooding potential north or northeast (except for some training) of landfall because this will be moving through without stalling. But you have to expect some storm surge (as noted above) and the possibility of downed trees/tree limbs and some minor localized flooding anyway.

JMO

[BRweather]

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 01/1430Z,1730Z,2030Z
B. AFXXX 1309A CYCLONE
C. 01/1330Z
D. 27.7N 86.0W
E. 01/1400Z TO 01/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

This will include 3 fixes on the center for the ones asking about recon.

Air Force will be out there till approximately 4:30 CDT

[ScottNAtlanta]

Alright, lets go back, to doing our first vortex guess!

I will go with 989mb and 61kt SFMRs, with a peak FL wind of 60kt for the first VORTEX. Anyone else?

987 with 65kts surface

[MississippiWx]

Core is getting better on each frame. Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are bad news. They hold onto their strength further inland.

[znel52]

I saw someone post a few pages back about how even if it made Cat 1 is isn't a big deal and would be a non event. That is definitely not true. The area where this storm will be making landfall has been inundated with rain the last couple of days. With soft moist soil it won't take much wind to cause a lot of trees to uproot and fall over. I personally witnessed something like this in 1999 with Dennis. It brushed the coast as a hurricane and dropped a lot rain on the area and moistened the soil. It then looped off the coast and made landfall in Eastern NC as a tropical storm and caused a lot of tree damage just because the soil was so soft. Guy that posted that has probably never even been through a hurricane.

[JaxGator]

Morning everyone. I see Hermine is making up for lost time pretty quickly. I'll do my best to update on any storm reports as the storm approaches along with fellow Northeast Florida posters. For anyone in the path, be safe and heed all warnings from the NHC and NWS. I've been visiting family in St. Augustine and it's calm with a light breeze. The Intercoastal is like glass and almost still.

[cdavis6287]

Morning everyone. I see Hermine is making up for lost time pretty quickly. I'll do my best to update on any storm reports as the storm approaches along with fellow Northeast Florida posters. For anyone in the path, be safe and heed all warnings from the NHC and NWS. I've been visiting family in St. Augustine and it's calm with a light breeze. The Intercoasal is like glass and almost still.

Yeah your up by me. Weather will prob start getting crappy later this evening. Kinda exciting huh!

[OntarioEggplant]

I wouldn't be surprised if this comes in at borderline 1/2

Right now the storm is probably 990 MB/60 KT

[SouthDadeFish]

A drop from the Global Hawk measured 991 mb at the surface with 10 knots of wind, so surface pressure is likely 990 mb now.