ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Andrew]

I believe that the current "N" movement is an optical illusion due to convection swinging around go quadrants II and III as opposed to the usual IV and I.

[Airboy]

With strong winds far out on the SE side of the storm and how the land is shaped in front of the storm, I guess lot of water will be pushed up to the landfall area.

[BRweather]

11 am NHC track shifted slightly again to the east.

with the convection starting to wrap around to the northwest side now, those little changes shouldn't matter anymore

[Aric Dunn]

Aric I used that site to do my calculations. It is 21 nm. Those are nautical miles. It is 24 sm. I am not following you. Regardless, I think the point is made that Hermine slightly slowed down.

my bad I had the wrong longitude plugged in i still had a recon position and then advisory position.

anyway yeah. slowed down about 4 or 5 mph in the last 3 to 4 hours.

[ronyan]

It looks like 24 statute miles using simple google earth measuring tool.

[caneman]

Put the flipping watches up. Bays news 9 is saying wind will be strong and with complete saturation of ground there will be felled trees.

[BRweather]

they are really flying more outwards gauging the entire wind field

[Hurricane Andrew]

New convection popping in the SE quadrant near the center, this should have a complete eyewall within twelve hours. Highest impacts will be from NE and SW quadrants. I suspect we will see a surge report of at least 8-10 feet somewhere.

[NDG]

150 miles SE of coc recon still finding tropical storm force winds.

152430 2527N 08406W 8429 01588 0111 +177 +145 203054 055 035 006 00
152500 2526N 08405W 8419 01589 0116 +180 +160 210051 058 034 010 00
152530 2524N 08404W 8448 01566 0118 +172 +170 211052 056 033 006 00

[Aric Dunn]

convection has nearly wrapped all the way around the center now. if it can close off that eastern side deepening would likely be much quicker.

[RL3AO]

Huge outbound leg due to size of wind field.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Massive rainband about to make landfall inbetween Apalachicola and Horseshoe Beach.

[Aric Dunn]

Huge outbound leg due to size of wind field.

storm surge with that kind of swath is not good. tampa bay is going to see some decent surge too. farther up may be a little worse.

[p1nheadlarry]

Cedar Key to Apalachicola still looking like the areas that will be most affected by storm surge. Anybody know when high tide occurs?

[BRweather]

Wow

This might be wrapping up at the worse time.

With the slight slowdown and as fast as the convection is wrapping around, I would expect a deepening pressure next pass

[tallywx]

Cedar Key to Apalachicola still looking like the areas that will be most affected by storm surge. Anybody know when high tide occurs?

3:32 AM ET for the St. Marks River Entrance.

[NDG]

Hopefully recon's latest outer windfield measurements makes the NHC pull the trigger for TS warnings for Tampa Bay, especially for Pinellas County and barrier islands of Manatee County.

[txwatcher91]

I find it humorous how the global models "strengthen" this to 998mb (specifically the GFS 12z) prior to landfall when it's already at 991mb lol. Looking really good on visible now and once it wraps all the way around this thing will likely reach hurricane status.

[RL3AO]

Huge outbound leg due to size of wind field.

storm surge with that kind of swath is not good. tampa bay is going to see some decent surge too. farther up may be a little worse.

Not sure how well slosh will handle this off balance of a wind field. They have the people and ability to expand the storm surge warning further south than guidance shows.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This just goes to show, never count a storm out until it is well and truly over. A strengthening category one is no joke, especially with heavy rain. Lots of trees are going to come down, power outages will be widespread. Surge should be worse than expected. I agree with the poster who said a landfall just east of Apalachicola, that is my thinking as well, perhaps fifty miles east.