EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Yep, looks like Lester is in the process of clearing out a larger eye.

[Kingarabian]

When was the last time the deterministic models were so different than the ensemble mean and turned out to be right?

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a major hurricane once again.

[Kingarabian]

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. HURRICANE LESTER
FLIGHT ONE - NCAR 5 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0000Z A. 02/0600Z
B. NCAR5 0213E LESTER B. AFXXX 0313E LESTER
C. 01/1730Z C. 02/0300Z
D. NA D. 18.9N 145.8W
E. NA E. 02/0530Z TO 02/0800Z
F. 41,000 TO 47,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 02/1800Z AND 6-HRLY
FIXES BEGIN AT 03/0600Z. A PROBABLE G-V MISSION FOR 03/00Z.

$$
JWP

NNNN

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2016 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 18:17:37 N Lon : 144:16:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 955.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +12.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Alyono]

This needs to start moving more to the north NOW

[Kingarabian]

This needs to start moving more to the north NOW

Yeah. A west component is evident.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think so....

Code: Select all

TXPN25 KNES 011815
TCSCNP

A.  13E (LESTER)

B.  01/1730Z

C.  18.2N

D.  144.1W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY B PLUS 0.5 FOR
EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS DT OF 5.0. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIM

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC right Dvorak wise for once.

Code: Select all

TPPZ03 PGTW 011832

A. HURRICANE 13E (LESTER)

B. 01/1800Z

C. 18.27N

D. 144.16W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T5.5/5.5  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURR BY MG (+1.0
ADJ FOR BLK) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AND MET ARE CURRENTLY
UNAVAILABL. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTINEZ

[Kingarabian]

Thankfully the CPHC hugs the JTWC.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the EPS have shifted more in line with the Euro. That's a relief.

[hurricanes1234]

Persistent Lester is yet again starting to look extremely impressive as it continues to defy intensity forecasts calling for weakening. I mean this looks like a Category 4 in my opinion!! It just doesn't want to give up.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 012046
TCDCP1

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016

The eye of Hurricane Lester has become better defined this morning,
and deep convection has intensified around the center as Lester has
moved over a small pocket of slightly warmer SSTs of about 27C. This
has occurred in spite of modest southeasterly wind shear of 10 kt,
according to UW CIMSS, that has restricted outflow somewhat in the
eastern portion of the system. Dvorak current intensity estimates
are all up and range from 5.0 out of SAB to 5.5 from HFO, JTWC, and
CIMSS ADT. A recent CIMSS SATCON estimate came in at 97 kt. Given
the improved satellite presentation and these data, the current
intensity will be raised to 95 kt for this advisory, and this may
be conservative.

The re-emergence of the eye has led to improved confidence in the
center location, and the initial motion is set at 275/11 kt. Lester
is moving westward along the southern flank of a deep anticyclone
parked to the north, while an upper level trough sits over Hawaii.
This upper level trough will produce a weakness in the steering
ridge that is expected to cause Lester to make a gradual
west-northwestward turn during the next three days and a turn to the
northwest thereafter. The official track has changed little from the
prior advisory and runs near the TVCN and operational GFS along the
middle of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF remaining to the
right of the official track. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
the Big Island (Hawaii County) and Maui County. It would take only a
small leftward shift in the track to directly and profoundly affect
the state, and watches could be expanded to other islands later
today or tonight. This possibility must be considered when making
preparations over the next couple of days.

The recent intensification trend is expected to be short lived.
Along the forecast track, Lester will be over slightly cooler SSTs
later today or this evening and beyond, and SHIPS forecasts modest
vertical wind shear to persist. This is expected to lead to gradual
weakening. Given recent trends, the rate of weakening in the
official forecast has been slowed and is in line with the SHIPS,
LGEM, and IVCN through Saturday, then near the slightly higher IVCN
beyond that time.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 18.4N 144.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 146.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.6N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 151.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 154.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 23.6N 159.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 26.2N 164.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 30.0N 167.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

[wxmann_91]

The intensity is probably closer to 115 kt right now vs. 95 kt.

[galaxy401]

Lester has been maintaining this impressive look for quite awhile now. I believe the first forecasts for it to weaken for around 4 days ago.

[hurricanes1234]

Thankfully I think recon takes off in less than 2 hours.

That should give us a much better insight into the current intensity.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-149&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[Kingarabian]

GFS ensembles also shift east. More and more likely that Hawaii will dodge another bullet.

[Kingarabian]

TXPN25 KNES 020011
TCSCNP

A. 13E (LESTER)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 18.7N

D. 145.4W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT OF
6.0 AFTER A 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

[1900hurricane]

Maybe the best vis shot yet?