ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7961 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:10 pm

The pressure gradient is quite sharp now lowest pressures and highest winds quite near the center.
50 Knot windfield is larger so we will have to watch that especialy for surge.

28°47'37" N 86°0'20" W

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7962 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:10 pm

decent jump to the NE .. looking more and more likely horseshoe beach area. putting cedar in the worst of it.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7963 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:10 pm

That intake of dry a clear problem

Also more of a northeast movement
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7964 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:11 pm

Recon through 12:55pm EDT

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7965 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:11 pm

Someone want to plot the speed?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7966 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:12 pm

FLLurker32 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch


This only mentions both coasts but I'd imagine it will be issued for the Inland areas inbetween too?


Inland watches and warnings are the responsibility of local NWS offices, not the NHC.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7967 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:12 pm

FLLurker32 wrote:
This only mentions both coasts but I'd imagine it will be issued for the Inland areas inbetween too?


Thats for the local NWS offices to issue. NHC only does the coasts.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7968 Postby ronyan » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:12 pm

70mph/989mb official
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7969 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:13 pm

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7970 Postby mpic » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:14 pm

So people on the west side of the panhandle shouldn't worry?
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7971 Postby lovingseason2013 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:16 pm

I would say we are just fine here in Pensacola.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7972 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:16 pm

BRweather wrote:Someone want to plot the speed?


its hard to tell being it was a large jump it traveled about 40 miles in 2 hours..
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7973 Postby Zanthe » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:16 pm

From the new forecast discussion

1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.
Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of
dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains
well to the east and southeast of the path of the center.

2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a
frontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend. It
is a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7974 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:16 pm

mpic wrote:So people on the west side of the panhandle shouldn't worry?

Well down here in Broward it's sunny and extremely hot.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7975 Postby NJWxHurricane » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:17 pm

mpic wrote:So people on the west side of the panhandle shouldn't worry?

No.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7976 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:17 pm

Recon through 1:05pm EDT:

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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7977 Postby mpic » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:17 pm

lovingseason2013 wrote:I would say we are just fine here in Pensacola.


I have friends in Mossy Head that aren't taking it too seriously and it worries me.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Recon

#7978 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:18 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 011716
AF307 1309A HERMINE HDOB 25 20160901
170600 2735N 08539W 8429 01427 9915 +202 +175 278019 020 028 001 00
170630 2734N 08541W 8430 01427 9919 +196 +178 281021 022 029 000 00
170700 2733N 08542W 8429 01430 9923 +195 +178 280024 025 030 001 00
170730 2732N 08543W 8429 01433 9925 +193 +179 283026 026 033 000 00
170800 2731N 08545W 8429 01435 9928 +189 +186 293027 029 035 001 00
170830 2730N 08546W 8432 01436 9932 +192 +184 299031 032 037 000 00
170900 2729N 08547W 8430 01441 9936 +190 +181 298032 033 038 000 00
170930 2728N 08549W 8428 01447 9942 +188 +180 302034 034 037 001 00
171000 2727N 08550W 8430 01448 9948 +183 +177 306037 038 037 001 01
171030 2726N 08551W 8425 01460 //// +181 //// 308040 041 040 002 01
171100 2725N 08552W 8428 01458 //// +174 //// 307038 042 045 003 01
171130 2724N 08554W 8428 01463 9964 +182 //// 307040 043 044 003 01
171200 2723N 08555W 8429 01463 9980 +178 +178 310048 051 050 015 03
171230 2722N 08556W 8415 01482 9989 +177 +177 309048 049 056 032 00
171300 2721N 08558W 8425 01474 9994 +179 +179 310051 053 054 037 00
171330 2720N 08559W 8430 01478 0001 +180 +180 310056 060 055 024 03
171400 2719N 08600W 8428 01480 0008 +175 +175 312053 056 050 024 03
171430 2718N 08601W 8429 01488 0013 +172 +172 309050 052 049 022 00
171500 2717N 08603W 8435 01488 0012 +178 //// 305047 052 047 012 01
171530 2716N 08604W 8426 01499 0010 +173 +173 304044 046 047 007 00
$$
;

60 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR in SW quad.
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7979 Postby BRweather » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:18 pm

171200 2723N 08555W 8429 01463 9980 +178 +178 310048 051 050 015 03
171230 2722N 08556W 8415 01482 9989 +177 +177 309048 049 056 032 00
171300 2721N 08558W 8425 01474 9994 +179 +179 310051 053 054 037 00
171330 2720N 08559W 8430 01478 0001 +180 +180 310056 060 055 024 03
171400 2719N 08600W 8428 01480 0008 +175 +175 312053 056 050 024 03
171430 2718N 08601W 8429 01488 0013 +172 +172 309050 052 049 022 00


WOW

big jump in winds on southwest side
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Re: ATL: HERMINE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7980 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2016 12:19 pm

well no fun I definitely wont make landfall time if it keeps this up :P.. oh well.
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